{"id":10483,"date":"2023-04-19T17:17:50","date_gmt":"2023-04-19T17:17:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=10483"},"modified":"2023-04-19T17:17:50","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T17:17:50","slug":"should-anti-trump-republicans-clear-the-field-for-desantis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=10483","title":{"rendered":"Should Anti-Trump Republicans Clear The Field For DeSantis?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\n\n&#8220;if you don\u2019t want Trump to win, DeSantis is clearly your best choice. It\u2019s still early, of course, and things could change, but&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/we-analyzed-40-years-of-primary-polls-even-early-on-theyre-fairly-predictive\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">early polls are decently predictive<\/a>&nbsp;of how candidates perform in primaries, and DeSantis today is polling&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-primary-r\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">in the mid-to-high 20s<\/a>&nbsp;in multi-candidate surveys. That puts him in a clear second position at this point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the good news for DeSantis is that most Republican voters probably want a Trumpy party, even if they choose someone else to lead it. Take&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/morningconsult.com\/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Morning Consult\u2019s primary poll tracker<\/a>: Trump (54 percent) and DeSantis (26 percent) combine for 80 percent of the primary vote. And based on second-choice preferences, voters don\u2019t view them as intractably opposed choices, but rather as two sides of the same coin. The leading second-choice candidate for Trump voters is DeSantis with 46 percent (Pence gets 17 percent), and the leading second choice for DeSantis voters is \u2026Trump with 43 percent (Pence is at 16 percent).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So do you want a certain approach to politics or do you want to stop Trump? The latter seems more likely to bring about Trump\u2019s defeat than the former, in part because GOP primary voters prefer a Trumpian approach.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;it\u2019s too early to dismiss the possible alternatives to both DeSantis and Trump! Yes, DeSantis is doing well in the polls right now, but he\u2019s been slipping as of late. And there\u2019s evidence that people&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/docs.cdn.yougov.com\/gg0t2njevs\/econTabReport.pdf\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">don\u2019t&nbsp;<em>really&nbsp;<\/em>know who he is<\/a>&nbsp;\u2014 or are still making up their minds about him.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-wordpress wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-fivethirtyeight\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"kaCnh2CyQU\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/trump-desantis-2024-primary\/\">Should Anti-Trump Republicans Clear The Field For DeSantis?<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Should Anti-Trump Republicans Clear The Field For DeSantis?&#8221; &#8212; FiveThirtyEight\" src=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/trump-desantis-2024-primary\/embed\/#?secret=Lu3sVJHB5T#?secret=kaCnh2CyQU\" data-secret=\"kaCnh2CyQU\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;if you don\u2019t want Trump to win, DeSantis is clearly your best choice. It\u2019s still early, of course, and things could change, but early polls are decently predictive of how candidates perform in primaries, and DeSantis today is polling in the mid-to-high 20s in multi-candidate surveys. That puts him in a clear second position at this point.<br \/>\nAnd the good news for DeSantis is that most Republican voters probably want a Trumpy party, even if they choose someone else to lead it. Take Morning Consult\u2019s primary poll tracker: Trump (54 percent) and DeSantis (26 percent) combine for 80 percent of the primary vote. And based on second-choice preferences, voters don\u2019t view them as intractably opposed choices, but rather as two sides of the same coin. The leading second-choice candidate for Trump voters is DeSantis with 46 percent (Pence gets 17 percent), and the leading second choice for DeSantis voters is \u2026Trump with 43 percent (Pence is at 16 percent). <\/p>\n<p>So do you want a certain approach to politics or do you want to stop Trump? The latter seems more likely to bring about Trump\u2019s defeat than the former, in part because GOP primary voters prefer a Trumpian approach.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;it\u2019s too early to dismiss the possible alternatives to both DeSantis and Trump! Yes, DeSantis is doing well in the polls right now, but he\u2019s been slipping as of late. And there\u2019s evidence that people don\u2019t really know who he is \u2014 or are still making up their minds about him.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[785,1281,221,372,198,506,170],"class_list":["post-10483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-anti-trump","tag-desantis","tag-donald-trump","tag-election","tag-elections","tag-republicans","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10483"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10483\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10484,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10483\/revisions\/10484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}