\n\n“A spokesperson for Iran\u2019s Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaani, said at a news conference in Tehran, Iran, on Monday that the militias \u201cdo not take orders\u201d from Iran and act independently. It is a convenient argument, one that preserves some sense of deniability for Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the speed at which Iran tried to distance itself from the strike, rather than embrace it, underscored that the downside of using proxies is the same as the upside: Iran will be blamed for everything the militias do, even acts the Iranians believe are too provocative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis is the inherent risk in Iran\u2019s proxy-war strategy,\u201d said Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. \u201cIt has been brilliantly successful, but only if the retaliation focuses on proxies and not on Iran\u2019s own territory. Now there is a real risk of things getting even more out of hand in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Biden is running out of middle-ground options. Sanctions have been exhausted; there is barely a sector of the Iranian economy that the United States and Europe are not already punishing, and China continues to buy up Iranian oil. He could approve \u201cstrike packages\u201d against a variety of proxies, but that would embolden some of them, and give some of them the status they crave as legitimate U.S. enemies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And, following Stavridis\u2019 suggestion, it could look to cyberattacks, more stealthy, deniable ways to make a point. But the lesson of the past decade of cyberconflict with Iran \u2014 in both directions \u2014 is that it looks easier in the movies than in reality. Gaining access to critical networks is hard, and having lasting impact is even harder. The most famous American-Israeli cyberattack on Iran, aimed at its nuclear centrifuges 15 years ago, slowed the nuclear program for a year or two but did not put it out of business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And that is Biden\u2019s challenge now: In the middle of an election, with two wars underway, he needs to put Iran\u2019s sponsorship of attacks on Americans out of business \u2014 without starting another war.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n