“Over 300 drones and missiles navigated above Iran\u2019s neighbors, including Jordan and Iraq \u2014 both with US military bases \u2014 before penetrating the airspace of Iran\u2019s mortal enemy, Israel. Israel\u2019s allies helped shoot down the bulk of these weapons, but couldn\u2019t prevent what was long believed to be the Middle East\u2019s doomsday scenario, the Islamic Republic\u2019s first-ever attack on Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Israel\u2019s fabled Iron Dome air defense system did not disappoint Israelis, many of whom took to bunkers. Only a small handful of locations were attacked, including a military base and an area in the Negev desert, injuring a Bedouin child, while the dome fended off one of the largest drone attacks in history<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet it was an operation that seemed designed to fail \u2014 when Iran launched its killer drones from its own territory some 1,000 miles away, it was giving Israel hours of advance notice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The symbolism of the attack did the heavy lifting. Rather than fire from one of the neighboring countries where Iran and its non-state allies are present, this was a direct attack from Iranian territory on Israeli territory. This compromised Iran\u2019s ability to damage Israel because it robbed the operation of the element of surprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet for some four hours, the world held its breath as weapons whizzed through the night sky. They were balls of fire hovering overhead as onlookers across three different countries filmed images that seemed to harken the start of a cataclysmic war.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“The strike served as a retaliation against the Israeli airstrikes on Iran\u2019s consulate in Damascus earlier in April that killed a top commander, and it was in keeping with US intelligence and analysts\u2019 expectations. Iran\u2019s leadership felt compelled to strike Israel in order to reiterate its position as a regional powerhouse and to dispel notions of it as a paper tiger. It doubled down on its show of force by launching the operation from its own territory and not by proxy in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen or Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet Iran also needed to try to avoid sparking an all-out war. Its economy has buckled under the weight of Trump-era sanctions, and there is growing discontent on its streets over the government\u2019s repressive policies. On Sunday, Iran appeared not only to have factored in Israel\u2019s robust air defense systems, but to have relied on it. The relatively high degree of US intelligence about the operation also suggests Iran may have engaged in back-channelling with Western leaders. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said he gave neighboring countries, including major US allies, 72-hour notice. To contain the fall-out of their own operation, they appeared intent to foil it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The style of attack is reminiscent of Tehran\u2019s response to former President Donald Trump\u2019s targeted killing of Iran\u2019s most storied general, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020. Tehran gave US troops 10 hours of advance warning before raining down massive ballistic missiles on US military positions in Iraq, including al-Asad airbase. The attack wreaked havoc, leaving gaping craters in the ground, but caused no known US casualties. In the process, Iranian forces accidentally shot down a commercial jet taking off from Tehran airport, killing over 100 passengers and fuelling public anger against a regime increasingly seen as incompetent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the time, the Iranians were preoccupied with demonstrating what their military could do, rather than what it was willing to do. The US did not retaliate, averting regional war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Four years later, Iran\u2019s playbook may not unfold in the same way. Israel has already vowed to respond. The US has publicly stated it would not participate in an Israeli retaliation, which may reassure Iran. Yet Netanyahu\u2019s Israel has proven increasingly unpredictable. Iran\u2019s threats of more severe action in case of further escalation may fall on deaf ears in Israel, to its own peril.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n