“there are three reasons for Democrats to fear that slowing inflation will prove too little, too late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For one thing, voters\u2019 distrust of Biden\u2019s economic management appears unshakeable. In a recent Gallup poll<\/a>, just 38 percent of Americans expressed confidence in Biden to \u201cdo the right thing for the economy.\u201d That is up a smidgen from Biden\u2019s 35 percent mark in 2023, but it is still the worst economic approval that any modern president has suffered in Gallup\u2019s polling, with the exception of George W. Bush immediately after the financial crisis. By contrast, 46 percent of voters have confidence in Trump\u2019s economic management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In RealClearPolitics\u2019s average of recent surveys<\/a>, Americans disapprove of Biden\u2019s handling of the economy by a 17.6 point margin. And voters\u2019 appraisal of Biden\u2019s economic acumen has not substantially improved in recent months, even as inflation has declined. By the end of Trump\u2019s term, on the other hand, voters approved<\/a> of his economic management by a 7.8 percent margin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Thus, the idea that Biden is personally responsible for the surge of inflation in 2022 \u2014 and that he cannot be trusted to effectively manage the economy for that reason \u2014 appears deeply rooted in voters\u2019 minds. The fact that wages have been rising much faster<\/a> than prices for more than a year has left no dent on this impression. Another few months of falling inflation could move the needle a bit, but there\u2019s little reason to assume that such a development will dramatically change public opinion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Second, relatedly, historical precedent suggests that the economy\u2019s performance up to this point in Biden\u2019s term will matter more than its performance from now until November. According to Democratic data scientist David Shor<\/a>, when you examine the relationship between GDP growth and past incumbent presidents\u2019 electoral outcomes, their economic records between inauguration and April of their reelection year count for much more than economic conditions in their campaigns\u2019 final months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Finally, if inflation has truly been defeated, victory has come too late to yield substantial interest rate cuts before November. The Federal Reserve declined<\/a> to reduce rates after its meeting this week and forecast a single, quarter-percentage-point cut by year\u2019s end. Investors predict that such a cut will come in September at the earliest. Even if the rate cut comes before Election Day, it would still leave Americans with dramatically higher borrowing costs than they faced when Biden was inaugurated. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It is conceivable that a small September cut may help the president a bit at the margins. Another possibility is that Biden will effectively shepherd the nation out of an economic crisis and deliver it into a low-inflation, high-employment economy and then promptly hand the White House back to Donald Trump, who will proceed to receive the lion\u2019s share of the credit when the Fed slashes interest rates next year.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n