“1) Trump has successfully associated himself with a message of economic nostalgia, heightening nonwhite Americans\u2019 memories of the pre-Covid economy in contrast to the period of inflation we\u2019re now exiting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2) Trump and his campaign have also zeroed in specifically on outreach and messaging to nonwhite men as part of their larger focus on appealing to male voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3) Trump and his party have taken advantage of a confluence of social factors, including messaging on immigration and cultural issues, to shore up support from conservative voters of color who have traditionally voted for Democrats or not voted at all.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“These three theories try to describe how Trump specifically has been able to improve his and the GOP\u2019s standing among a growing segment of the American electorate. They place Trump as the central cause for the majority of this racial political shift. But would these dynamics still be happening if he weren\u2019t involved?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are signs that some of this shift may be happening independently of Trump. It could be a product of the growing diversification of America, upward mobility and changing understandings of class, and growing educational divides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, as rates of immigration change and the share of US-born Latino and Asian Americans grows, their partisan loyalties may continue to change. Those born closer to the immigrant experience may have had more of a willingness to back the party seen as more welcoming of immigrants, but as generations get further away from that experience, racial and ethnic identity may become less of a factor in the development of political thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Concepts of racial identity and memory are also changing \u2014 younger Black Americans, for example, have less of a tie to the Civil Rights era \u2014 potentially contributing to less strong political polarization among Black and Latino people in the US independently of any given candidate \u2014 and creating more persuadable voters in future elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, younger generations are increasingly identifying as independents or outside of the two-party paradigm \u2014 a change in loyalty that stands to hurt Democrats first, since Democrats tend to do better with younger voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Regardless of whether Trump just happens to be the right kind of populist at the right time of racial and ethnic change in America or if he\u2019s a unique accelerator and contributor to the changes America is experiencing, November may offer more evidence that something has fundamentally changed in US politics. As America diversifies, it makes sense for its political parties to diversify too \u2014 and that poses a reckoning for Democrats in elections to come.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n