“For Washington, the question that really matters is Ishiba\u2019s approach to the military relationship with America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here Ishiba has sounded more disruptive than either the Japanese or U.S. establishment would like. He approached one third rail by calling for the revision of the agreement on the deployment of U.S. forces here. He went for another in wanting to amend the constitutional provisions on Japanese pacifism. He has talked about an Asian version of NATO, which would take Japan from a security vassal of the U.S. to a peer, though still a close ally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cHe could be a problem for the U.S.,\u201d says Gerry Curtis, the retired Columbia scholar of Japan who lives much of the year here. \u201cHe thinks the deal with the U.S. is outdated, has an occupation stink to it.\u201d Ishiba is, as one of the preeminent Japan watchers in Washington Ken Weinstein texted me, \u201chardest for Americans to read of the major candidates.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So what\u2019s going on? A Japanese official who knows Ishiba offered the 60\/40 theory over lunch the day after Ishiba\u2019s victory. Every other similar status of forces agreement with the U.S., from Germany to South Korea to Italy, was revised in the last half century. Japan\u2019s dates to 1960. Ishiba wants a deal to allow Japanese forces to base and train in the U.S. \u2014 in effect to become even more like a normal army than a self defense force. Abe took Japan down this road, and Kishida continued by boosting spending (Japan\u2019s defense budget is the third-biggest in the world). But neither of Ishiba\u2019s predecessors put the status agreement explicitly on the table the way Ishiba has. So 60 percent of Ishiba\u2019s motivation is \u201cto enhance deterrence and strengthen the alliance,\u201d this official said. The other 40 percent? That\u2019s about \u201crestoring Japanese sovereignty,\u201d and that\u2019s the bit that makes Washington nervous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Speaking after this victory, Ishiba said the time wasn\u2019t right to raise any of these security questions. This will be a topic of discussion with the next U.S. president and shouldn\u2019t even be mentioned before Election Day in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The other topic that will test bilateral relations is America\u2019s more protectionist trade policies under both Trump and Biden administrations and the high cost to Japanese manufacturers of enforcing the U.S.-inspired restrictions on technology transfers to China. \u201cJapan is hurting right now because of American policies,\u201d says Koll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new Japanese prime minister is \u201ca realist,\u201d says Hiro Akita, the Japanese business daily Nikkei\u2019s foreign affairs specialist, who knows him. Ishiba thinks that Japan has to adjust to a changing world, he says. The next prime minister is no Japanese Charles de Gaulle who\u2019ll seek to push America back as the old French leader did there half a century ago, he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But still, this at first undramatic leadership change in Tokyo does potentially bring chop to the waters of the Japanese-American relationship that have been especially placid of late.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n