{"id":15596,"date":"2024-12-05T17:11:18","date_gmt":"2024-12-05T17:11:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=15596"},"modified":"2024-12-05T17:11:18","modified_gmt":"2024-12-05T17:11:18","slug":"how-the-syrian-rebels-surprise-offensive-shocked-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=15596","title":{"rendered":"How the Syrian rebels\u2019 surprise offensive shocked the world"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

“Since taking Aleppo, HTS has \u201csaid all the right things,\u201d said Ford, noting that Christian services were held on Sunday. The group has published a statement proclaiming \u201cdiversity is our strength<\/a>\u201d and calling for solidarity with Aleppo\u2019s Kurdish population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alhamdo, the activist from Aleppo, told Vox he was not a supporter of HTS\u2019s ideology, but gave them credit for their tactical leadership on the battlefield and felt that \u201cthey are developing their mentality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ford, who spearheaded the move to designate the group \u2014 under its former name \u2014 as a terrorist organization when he served in the Obama administration, told Vox he \u201cwould be hard-pressed now, in 2024, to legally justify a listing\u201d for the group in its current incarnation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, not everyone is likely to buy the group\u2019s rebranding effort. That includes the Biden administration as well as regional governments, like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which used to staunchly back the Syrian opposition, but are fearful of the overtly Islamist turn some opposition groups have taken. These are the governments that have also been reaching out to try to normalize relations with Assad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor the UAE especially, HTS is Islamist. It is the Muslim Brotherhood. It is evil incarnate, no matter how many permutations it has undertaken,\u201d Slim said. \u201cThis group was al-Qaeda, and it\u2019s going to take a lot of change to convince the US, or the Saudis, or the Egyptians that it really has changed.\u201d”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Another group involved in the rebel coalition is the Syrian National Army (SNA), which despite its name is a Turkish-backed proxy militia. Turkey has a more wary relationship with HTS, but reportedly gave the green light to the SNA\u2019s involvement in the operation due to Assad\u2019s unwillingness to engage in talks<\/a> earlier this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkey\u2019s bigger concern, though, is the Kurdish-dominated statelet that has emerged in Syria\u2019s northeast. The Syrian Kurdish forces, known as the SDF, have been America\u2019s primary allies in the ongoing campaign against ISIS, but Turkey views them as a branch of the PKK, the Turkey-based Kurdish militant group that has fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish government. The Turkish military and its proxy forces have launched several incursions over the border into Syria to push the Kurdish forces back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SDF also controlled some pockets of territory in and around Aleppo but has withdrawn from these as the rebels have advanced. Sinam Mohamad, the representative in Washington for the Syrian Democratic Council \u2014 as the predominantly Kurdish government in northeast Syria is known \u2014 said she believes Turkey is \u201cplanning to occupy some Syrian lands in order to destroy the autonomous administration of northeast Syria.\u201d Despite the HTS\u2019s assurances that Kurds have nothing to fear from Aleppo\u2019s new rulers, she told Vox the group is a \u201cterrorist organization\u201d and that \u201cwe are really afraid about the minorities, especially the Kurdish people, in Aleppo city.\u201d”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Iran and Russia \u2014 even in their diminished capacity \u2014 are unlikely to completely abandon a regime they see as strategically vital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But even if the rebel offensive does not get much farther than the area it currently controls, their rapid success demonstrates a couple of important lessons. One, the war in Syria is not over. Many of the fighters who entered Aleppo this week were young children when the uprising against Assad began more than a decade ago, and there could well be years more fighting to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, it\u2019s a mistake to consider conflicts like Syria in isolation. The Syrian conflict is often called a \u201ccivil war,\u201d which generally means a war fought by factions existing within one country. But at the conflict\u2019s height, it drew in countries from around the region, as well as the United States and Russia, presaging similar lines of conflict in Ukraine. Through the rise of ISIS<\/a>, the massive global refugee crisis<\/a>, and the spread of illegal drugs<\/a>, it has had truly global ripple effects. Like a feedback loop, events abroad \u2014 particularly in Lebanon and Ukraine \u2014 are now helping drive events on the ground in Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest offensive will have its own ripple effects. Optimistically, it could allow for refugees from Aleppo living abroad and elsewhere in Syria to return home, and weaken or even topple a truly odious regime, one that has used chemical weapons on its own people<\/a> and is believed to have killed tens of thousands of civilians<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pessimistically, it could lead to more chaos and displacement. HTS may yet go back to its former jihadist ways, the horrific levels of violence<\/a> we saw years ago could return, more regional actors could be drawn in, and jihadist groups like ISIS could take advantage of the chaos to reconstitute themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world may have thought it was done with Syria. But Syrians themselves are not done, and the world has no choice but to pay attention again.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world-politics\/389694\/syria-rebels-bashar-assad-iran-hts-united-states-refugees-middle-east<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Since taking Aleppo, HTS has \u201csaid all the right things,\u201d said Ford, noting that Christian services were held on Sunday. The group has published a statement proclaiming \u201cdiversity is our strength\u201d and calling for solidarity with Aleppo\u2019s Kurdish population.
\nAlhamdo, the activist from Aleppo, told Vox he was not a supporter of HTS\u2019s ideology, but gave them credit for their tactical leadership on the battlefield and felt that \u201cthey are developing their mentality.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ford, who spearheaded the move to designate the group \u2014 under its former name \u2014 as a terrorist organization when he served in the Obama administration, told Vox he \u201cwould be hard-pressed now, in 2024, to legally justify a listing\u201d for the group in its current incarnation.<\/p>\n

Of course, not everyone is likely to buy the group\u2019s rebranding effort. That includes the Biden administration as well as regional governments, like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which used to staunchly back the Syrian opposition, but are fearful of the overtly Islamist turn some opposition groups have taken. These are the governments that have also been reaching out to try to normalize relations with Assad.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the UAE especially, HTS is Islamist. It is the Muslim Brotherhood. It is evil incarnate, no matter how many permutations it has undertaken,\u201d Slim said. \u201cThis group was al-Qaeda, and it\u2019s going to take a lot of change to convince the US, or the Saudis, or the Egyptians that it really has changed.\u201d”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“Another group involved in the rebel coalition is the Syrian National Army (SNA), which despite its name is a Turkish-backed proxy militia. Turkey has a more wary relationship with HTS, but reportedly gave the green light to the SNA\u2019s involvement in the operation due to Assad\u2019s unwillingness to engage in talks earlier this year.<\/p>\n

Turkey\u2019s bigger concern, though, is the Kurdish-dominated statelet that has emerged in Syria\u2019s northeast. The Syrian Kurdish forces, known as the SDF, have been America\u2019s primary allies in the ongoing campaign against ISIS, but Turkey views them as a branch of the PKK, the Turkey-based Kurdish militant group that has fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish government. The Turkish military and its proxy forces have launched several incursions over the border into Syria to push the Kurdish forces back.<\/p>\n

The SDF also controlled some pockets of territory in and around Aleppo but has withdrawn from these as the rebels have advanced. Sinam Mohamad, the representative in Washington for the Syrian Democratic Council \u2014 as the predominantly Kurdish government in northeast Syria is known \u2014 said she believes Turkey is \u201cplanning to occupy some Syrian lands in order to destroy the autonomous administration of northeast Syria.\u201d Despite the HTS\u2019s assurances that Kurds have nothing to fear from Aleppo\u2019s new rulers, she told Vox the group is a \u201cterrorist organization\u201d and that \u201cwe are really afraid about the minorities, especially the Kurdish people, in Aleppo city.\u201d”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“Iran and Russia \u2014 even in their diminished capacity \u2014 are unlikely to completely abandon a regime they see as strategically vital.<\/p>\n

But even if the rebel offensive does not get much farther than the area it currently controls, their rapid success demonstrates a couple of important lessons. One, the war in Syria is not over. Many of the fighters who entered Aleppo this week were young children when the uprising against Assad began more than a decade ago, and there could well be years more fighting to come.<\/p>\n

Second, it\u2019s a mistake to consider conflicts like Syria in isolation. The Syrian conflict is often called a \u201ccivil war,\u201d which generally means a war fought by factions existing within one country. But at the conflict\u2019s height, it drew in countries from around the region, as well as the United States and Russia, presaging similar lines of conflict in Ukraine. Through the rise of ISIS, the massive global refugee crisis, and the spread of illegal drugs, it has had truly global ripple effects. Like a feedback loop, events abroad \u2014 particularly in Lebanon and Ukraine \u2014 are now helping drive events on the ground in Syria.<\/p>\n

The latest offensive will have its own ripple effects. Optimistically, it could allow for refugees from Aleppo living abroad and elsewhere in Syria to return home, and weaken or even topple a truly odious regime, one that has used chemical weapons on its own people and is believed to have killed tens of thousands of civilians.<\/p>\n

Pessimistically, it could lead to more chaos and displacement. HTS may yet go back to its former jihadist ways, the horrific levels of violence we saw years ago could return, more regional actors could be drawn in, and jihadist groups like ISIS could take advantage of the chaos to reconstitute themselves.<\/p>\n

The world may have thought it was done with Syria. But Syrians themselves are not done, and the world has no choice but to pay attention again.”<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world-politics\/389694\/syria-rebels-bashar-assad-iran-hts-united-states-refugees-middle-east<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1395,552,156,194,547,546,391,315,419,108,115,418,158],"class_list":["post-15596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-civil-war","tag-conflict","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-kurdish","tag-kurds","tag-middle-east","tag-russia","tag-syria","tag-terrorism","tag-terrorists","tag-turkey","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15596"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15596\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15597,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15596\/revisions\/15597"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}