{"id":15719,"date":"2024-12-15T16:08:06","date_gmt":"2024-12-15T16:08:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=15719"},"modified":"2024-12-15T16:08:14","modified_gmt":"2024-12-15T16:08:14","slug":"one-striking-pattern-hidden-in-the-election-results","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=15719","title":{"rendered":"One striking pattern hidden in the election results"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>&#8220;Kamala Harris lost the presidential election and Democrats lost control of the Senate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But when you zoom in on the details of that result, there\u2019s a striking pattern: Democratic Senate candidates are outperforming Harris. Or, put another way, Republican Senate candidates are doing worse than Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent years, the outcome of a state\u2019s US Senate race has increasingly matched the outcome of its simultaneous presidential race.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/policy-and-politics\/2016\/11\/17\/13666192\/voting-congress-presidency\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ticket-splitting<\/a>&nbsp;has decreased in our era of polarization and partisanship. The vast majority of people voting for a presidential candidate also vote for their party\u2019s Senate candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But not everyone does that. And there\u2019s still some variation in how much better or worse Senate candidates do compared to the top of the ticket. Looking at that variation can provide clues about what sorts of candidates overperform (even if they don\u2019t actually win).&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Some might argue for racism or sexism explaining Harris\u2019s struggles, but I\u2019d note that several of the Democratic candidates who overperformed Harris were nonwhite or female. Others might argue that she was a uniquely flawed candidate or campaigner, but President Joe Biden was on track to do much worse if he\u2019d stayed in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My suspicion is that Harris\u2019s electoral struggles were more about Biden\u2019s unpopularity and her association with his administration than any newfound love of the American public for the Republican Party generally.&#8221;&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Call them the \u201cI don\u2019t like Republicans much, but the economy was better under Trump\u201d voters. Biden lost them, and Harris failed to get them back.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2024-elections\/383197\/kamala-harris-results-underperformed-democratic-senate-candidates\">https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2024-elections\/383197\/kamala-harris-results-underperformed-democratic-senate-candidates<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Kamala Harris lost the presidential election and Democrats lost control of the Senate.<br \/>\nBut when you zoom in on the details of that result, there\u2019s a striking pattern: Democratic Senate candidates are outperforming Harris. Or, put another way, Republican Senate candidates are doing worse than Trump.<\/p>\n<p>In recent years, the outcome of a state\u2019s US Senate race has increasingly matched the outcome of its simultaneous presidential race. Ticket-splitting has decreased in our era of polarization and partisanship. The vast majority of people voting for a presidential candidate also vote for their party\u2019s Senate candidate.<\/p>\n<p>But not everyone does that. And there\u2019s still some variation in how much better or worse Senate candidates do compared to the top of the ticket. Looking at that variation can provide clues about what sorts of candidates overperform (even if they don\u2019t actually win).&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Some might argue for racism or sexism explaining Harris\u2019s struggles, but I\u2019d note that several of the Democratic candidates who overperformed Harris were nonwhite or female. Others might argue that she was a uniquely flawed candidate or campaigner, but President Joe Biden was on track to do much worse if he\u2019d stayed in the race.<\/p>\n<p>My suspicion is that Harris\u2019s electoral struggles were more about Biden\u2019s unpopularity and her association with his administration than any newfound love of the American public for the Republican Party generally.&#8221;   <\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Call them the \u201cI don\u2019t like Republicans much, but the economy was better under Trump\u201d voters. Biden lost them, and Harris failed to get them back.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2024-elections\/383197\/kamala-harris-results-underperformed-democratic-senate-candidates<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[375,221,372,198,780,966,758,865,999,170,386],"class_list":["post-15719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-biden","tag-donald-trump","tag-election","tag-elections","tag-joe-biden","tag-kamala-harris","tag-racism","tag-senate","tag-sexism","tag-trump","tag-voters"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15719"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15719\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15721,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15719\/revisions\/15721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}