{"id":15744,"date":"2024-12-17T12:52:15","date_gmt":"2024-12-17T12:52:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=15744"},"modified":"2024-12-17T12:52:16","modified_gmt":"2024-12-17T12:52:16","slug":"how-the-debt-could-topple-trumps-growth-agenda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=15744","title":{"rendered":"How the debt could topple Trump\u2019s growth agenda"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>&#8220;Jeff Bezos, Larry Fink and Donald Trump\u2019s Treasury pick Scott Bessent all agree: Turbocharging economic growth is the best route to reining in the U.S.\u2019s massive $36 trillion debt. History is not on their side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bessent warns that this is the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-08-07\/five-questions-for-trump-adviser-and-key-square-group-founder-scott-bessent?sref=17aozLHf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">last chance<\/a>\u201d for the country to grow its way out of the record debt without becoming a \u201cEuropean-style socialist democracy.\u201d Fink, who heads the world\u2019s largest asset manager BlackRock,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/opinion\/how-to-grow-out-of-americas-debt-woes-economy-ai-tech-7322ce43\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">urged the incoming administration<\/a>&nbsp;in an Election Day op-ed to promote artificial intelligence and infrastructure investments to grow the economy and tame the deficit. And Amazon founder Bezos told economic power brokers at the DealBook Summit this month that the only way to solve the problem is to expand the economy by 3 to 5 percent a year while simultaneously trimming annual deficits.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;That\u2019s a tall order that few modern presidents have managed to achieve for any sustained period. Bill Clinton famously generated budget surpluses while the economy soared at rates of more than 4 percent in the late 1990s. Ronald Reagan brought down deficits in 1984 and 1987 but otherwise ran up the red ink. And Trump himself will face even more significant challenges if he follows through on tax and tariff pledges that budget forecasters say could add&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu\/issues\/2024\/8\/26\/trump-campaign-policy-proposals-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$4.1 trillion<\/a>&nbsp;to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.crfb.org\/papers\/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$15.6 trillion<\/a>&nbsp;to the debt over the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.econclubny.org\/documents\/10184\/109144\/20240905_Trump_Transcript.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">promised during the campaign<\/a>&nbsp;that a combination of lower taxes, more energy production, looser regulations and punishing tariffs would generate \u201cexplosive\u201d growth to pay down the debt. And government budgets would shrink by \u201ctrillions,\u201d he said, with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy tasked with tackling government waste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Trump has also vowed that he won\u2019t touch entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are by far the chief drivers of the debt and are projected to be insolvent by the mid-2030s. Imposing tariffs on imports could trigger reprisals that would harm growth, and even if they didn\u2019t, many economists believe it would take a historic economic boom to meaningfully address the country\u2019s fiscal challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYou can\u2019t improve this with growth,\u201d said Tom Porcelli, the chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. \u201cYou\u2019d have to have 5 percent growth for a pretty decent amount of time to have any real notable impact.\u201d&#8221;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Fiscal watchdogs and credit-rating agencies have been clanging alarms for years about the U.S.\u2019s growing debt, which is the accumulation of annual budget deficits. Rising deficits \u2014 which can be inflationary and push up interest rates \u2014 could become more acute as the population ages and spending for mandatory entitlement programs climbs. Even steep cuts to discretionary federal programs wouldn\u2019t make a meaningful dent in the debt without extensive structural reforms.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/12\/16\/trump-ceos-american-debt-plan-00194362\">https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/12\/16\/trump-ceos-american-debt-plan-00194362<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Jeff Bezos, Larry Fink and Donald Trump\u2019s Treasury pick Scott Bessent all agree: Turbocharging economic growth is the best route to reining in the U.S.\u2019s massive $36 trillion debt. History is not on their side.<br \/>\nBessent warns that this is the \u201clast chance\u201d for the country to grow its way out of the record debt without becoming a \u201cEuropean-style socialist democracy.\u201d Fink, who heads the world\u2019s largest asset manager BlackRock, urged the incoming administration in an Election Day op-ed to promote artificial intelligence and infrastructure investments to grow the economy and tame the deficit. And Amazon founder Bezos told economic power brokers at the DealBook Summit this month that the only way to solve the problem is to expand the economy by 3 to 5 percent a year while simultaneously trimming annual deficits.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That\u2019s a tall order that few modern presidents have managed to achieve for any sustained period. Bill Clinton famously generated budget surpluses while the economy soared at rates of more than 4 percent in the late 1990s. Ronald Reagan brought down deficits in 1984 and 1987 but otherwise ran up the red ink. And Trump himself will face even more significant challenges if he follows through on tax and tariff pledges that budget forecasters say could add $4.1 trillion to $15.6 trillion to the debt over the next decade.<\/p>\n<p>Trump promised during the campaign that a combination of lower taxes, more energy production, looser regulations and punishing tariffs would generate \u201cexplosive\u201d growth to pay down the debt. And government budgets would shrink by \u201ctrillions,\u201d he said, with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy tasked with tackling government waste.<\/p>\n<p>But Trump has also vowed that he won\u2019t touch entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are by far the chief drivers of the debt and are projected to be insolvent by the mid-2030s. Imposing tariffs on imports could trigger reprisals that would harm growth, and even if they didn\u2019t, many economists believe it would take a historic economic boom to meaningfully address the country\u2019s fiscal challenges.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou can\u2019t improve this with growth,\u201d said Tom Porcelli, the chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. \u201cYou\u2019d have to have 5 percent growth for a pretty decent amount of time to have any real notable impact.\u201d&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8221; Fiscal watchdogs and credit-rating agencies have been clanging alarms for years about the U.S.\u2019s growing debt, which is the accumulation of annual budget deficits. Rising deficits \u2014 which can be inflationary and push up interest rates \u2014 could become more acute as the population ages and spending for mandatory entitlement programs climbs. Even steep cuts to discretionary federal programs wouldn\u2019t make a meaningful dent in the debt without extensive structural reforms.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/12\/16\/trump-ceos-american-debt-plan-00194362<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[7,278,221,1349,217,1193,279,170,619],"class_list":["post-15744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-debt","tag-deficit","tag-donald-trump","tag-economic-growth","tag-economics","tag-government-spending","tag-spending","tag-trump","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15744","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15744"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15744\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15745,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15744\/revisions\/15745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}