“And yet, Democrats might not be in as much danger as it appears. There\u2019s evidence that this year\u2019s vote does not represent a pure, wholesale ideological transformation of Latinos. On the ground in Starr County, and in similar places across the country, I met voters who thought of the election simply as a referendum on the economy. The school teachers and gardeners and ranchers didn\u2019t talk like Steve Bannon or J.D. Vance. They talked about the price of milk and gas. More than that, they saw national Democrats as apathetic \u2014 the party didn\u2019t see their path to victory going through many Latino neighborhoods, so they focused elsewhere. And the results reflected that.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“These two Latinos had gone through an actual ideological shift. Lira voted for Obama twice, but had transformed into a passionate Republican. Other Trump voters I met in town, however, were much less ideological. Their message, instead, was something like this: Under Biden, there were days I couldn\u2019t afford to fill up my truck with gas; the price of eggs doubled; my rent went up. Entonces, Biden is fired. It\u2019s time for change.<\/em> While the White House could point at record-high unemployment, and historically high blue-collar wages, high prices under Biden were much more keenly felt than any boost in paychecks. Accordingly, Trump\u2019s ability to run as the change candidate gave him a huge, structural advantage with Latinos upset with the economy.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Lira was disgusted with Democrats\u2019 flip-flopping: She had voted for Obama in large part for his promise to create a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers. But after 12 years of Democrats promising that pathway with no evidence of anything changing, Lira came to believe she\u2019d been lied to.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s sad because it was mostly Republicans that blocked a pathway to citizenship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Here\u2019s how profoundly damaged Democrats were by losing both immigration and the economy as winning issues: They lost support even among undocumented Latinos. Lira told me she had undocumented friends in Denison who (though they couldn\u2019t vote) nonetheless supported Trump. Some had lived in the states for decades, working long hours, paying Social Security taxes they\u2019d never get back. They felt bitter and aggrieved that the newest arrivals, especially those from Venezuela, had been given humanitarian parole under Biden, while they themselves still lacked legal status. They felt cut in line. And the feeling of being cut in line is the glue that unites conservatives in this country. Democrats flip-flopping lost them both pro-immigration voters and anti-immigration voters. It wasn\u2019t just that their proposals weren\u2019t popular \u2014 they had simply lost all credibility on the issue.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Still, the situation for Democrats in swing states looks a lot better than it does in South Texas and Florida. Odio said that, in his own analysis of the vote, Democrats only performed a few points worse among Latinos in battleground states than they did in 2020 \u2014 \u201cerosion, not realignment,\u201d as Odio put it. When you grade on the curve on inflation and a super-unpopular incumbent, Democrats get even better grades \u2014 back when Biden was the nominee, Odio expected them to lose in a blowout. \u201cI actually think the Republicans underperformed,\u201d Odio said.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n