{"id":18517,"date":"2025-07-08T16:27:36","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T16:27:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=18517"},"modified":"2025-07-08T16:27:36","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T16:27:36","slug":"texas-flood-forecasts-were-accurate-it-wasnt-enough-to-save-lives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=18517","title":{"rendered":"Texas flood forecasts were accurate. It wasn\u2019t enough to save lives."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>&#8220;The catastrophic floods that struck central Texas on Friday show that accurate weather forecasts alone aren\u2019t enough to save lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The National Weather Service issued timely warnings in advance of the deadly floods, meteorologists say. But they emphasized that forecasts are only one piece of an effective response \u2014 local authorities must be able to interpret weather warnings, communicate them to the public and help communities get to safety in time.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;In the case of last week\u2019s floods, NWS began to escalate its warnings as much as 12 hours in advance, issuing flood watches beginning Thursday afternoon and upgrading to a flash flood warning by 1a.m. local time Friday, with more urgent warnings following into the early morning.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The NWS office in San Angelo, which serves some of the hardest-hit communities, has no permanent meteorologist in charge, according to a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/media\/nws\/wcm-soo.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">list of vacancies<\/a>&nbsp;published by the agency in June. And the Austin\/San Antonio office, also serving flooded communities, is missing its warning coordination meteorologist and a science and operations officer, according to the same list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These roles often serve as liaisons between NWS meteorologists and local authorities or emergency managers. Warning coordination meteorologists, in particular, help translate forecasts into usable action plans that can aid the local authorities who make decisions and evacuate communities as severe weather systems approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s unclear whether those vacancies have affected coordination with local authorities. Top meteorologists at NWS San Angelo and NWS Austin\/San Antonio did not immediately respond to questions about whether the openings posed any challenges during the floods.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;But Tom Fahy, legislative director at the union that represents NWS employees, said in an interview that vacancies at the Texas offices did not cause any problems during the floods.&#8221;&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8221; \u201cThe crux of this disaster is a failure of the last mile of communication,\u201d Fahy said. \u201cThe forecasts went out, they communicated the forecasts, they disseminated the watches and warnings. And the dilemma we have is there was nobody listening at 4 o\u2019clock in the morning for these watches and warnings.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most people who died in Friday\u2019s floods were located in Kerr County, which does not have a warning system, according to Kelly, the Kerry County judge, at a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ueo6bcT4Ul4&amp;list=RDNSueo6bcT4Ul4&amp;start_radio=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Friday news conference<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;In an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/07\/05\/us\/politics\/texas-floods-warnings-vacancies.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">interview with&nbsp;<em>The New York Times<\/em><\/a>, Kelly suggested that warning systems are expensive and \u201ctaxpayers won\u2019t pay for it.\u201d&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8221; A policy on the camp\u2019s website suggests that campers are not permitted to have cellphones, smart watches, iPads or other devices with touchscreens. It\u2019s unclear whether counselors had access to devices equipped with emergency alerts or whether the camp had access to a NOAA weather radio.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/07\/07\/texas-flood-forecasts-accuracy-lives-lost-00441068\">https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/07\/07\/texas-flood-forecasts-accuracy-lives-lost-00441068<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;The catastrophic floods that struck central Texas on Friday show that accurate weather forecasts alone aren\u2019t enough to save lives.<br \/>\nThe National Weather Service issued timely warnings in advance of the deadly floods, meteorologists say. But they emphasized that forecasts are only one piece of an effective response \u2014 local authorities must be able to interpret weather warnings, communicate them to the public and help communities get to safety in time.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In the case of last week\u2019s floods, NWS began to escalate its warnings as much as 12 hours in advance, issuing flood watches beginning Thursday afternoon and upgrading to a flash flood warning by 1a.m. local time Friday, with more urgent warnings following into the early morning.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The NWS office in San Angelo, which serves some of the hardest-hit communities, has no permanent meteorologist in charge, according to a list of vacancies published by the agency in June. And the Austin\/San Antonio office, also serving flooded communities, is missing its warning coordination meteorologist and a science and operations officer, according to the same list.<\/p>\n<p>These roles often serve as liaisons between NWS meteorologists and local authorities or emergency managers. Warning coordination meteorologists, in particular, help translate forecasts into usable action plans that can aid the local authorities who make decisions and evacuate communities as severe weather systems approach.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s unclear whether those vacancies have affected coordination with local authorities. Top meteorologists at NWS San Angelo and NWS Austin\/San Antonio did not immediately respond to questions about whether the openings posed any challenges during the floods.  <\/p>\n<p> But Tom Fahy, legislative director at the union that represents NWS employees, said in an interview that vacancies at the Texas offices did not cause any problems during the floods.&#8221;   <\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8221; \u201cThe crux of this disaster is a failure of the last mile of communication,\u201d Fahy said. \u201cThe forecasts went out, they communicated the forecasts, they disseminated the watches and warnings. And the dilemma we have is there was nobody listening at 4 o\u2019clock in the morning for these watches and warnings.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Most people who died in Friday\u2019s floods were located in Kerr County, which does not have a warning system, according to Kelly, the Kerry County judge, at a Friday news conference.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In an interview with The New York Times, Kelly suggested that warning systems are expensive and \u201ctaxpayers won\u2019t pay for it.\u201d&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8221; A policy on the camp\u2019s website suggests that campers are not permitted to have cellphones, smart watches, iPads or other devices with touchscreens. It\u2019s unclear whether counselors had access to devices equipped with emergency alerts or whether the camp had access to a NOAA weather radio.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/07\/07\/texas-flood-forecasts-accuracy-lives-lost-00441068<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[53,1749,228,229,2231,21],"class_list":["post-18517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-deaths","tag-disaster","tag-flooding","tag-floods","tag-national-weather-service","tag-texas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18517"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18517\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18518,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18517\/revisions\/18518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}