{"id":3197,"date":"2020-08-06T21:51:06","date_gmt":"2020-08-06T21:51:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=3197"},"modified":"2020-08-06T21:51:06","modified_gmt":"2020-08-06T21:51:06","slug":"the-end-of-arms-control-as-we-know-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=3197","title":{"rendered":"\u201cThe end of arms control as we know it\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

“why get out of a deal that almost everyone says is vital to keeping US-Russia relations stable? The answer is China<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe need to make sure that we\u2019ve got all of the parties that are relevant as a component of this as well,\u201d Pompeo<\/a> told reporters in 2019, clearly alluding to China. \u201dIt may be that we can\u2019t get there. It may be that we just end up working with the Russians on this. But if we\u2019re talking about a nuclear [capability] that presents risks to the United States, it\u2019s very different today in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s a legitimate concern. Beijing has spent the past few years building up its missile arsenal. It has short-, intermediate-, and long-range missiles capable of making any military, including America\u2019s, think twice about attacking it. And while it only has about 300 warheads<\/a>, far fewer than the US and Russia, it has enough bombs and missiles to carry them to retaliate<\/a>. If the US wants to drop a nuke on China, China can drop a nuke on the US right back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s a big change from when the US and Russia signed New START almost a decade ago. Many in the Trump administration and outside experts argue it\u2019s worth using the treaty\u2019s imminent demise to pressure Moscow to either stop harming the US, such as with election interference, or get Beijing to join a broader arms control agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In July, top US arms control negotiator Marshall Billingslea extended an \u201copen invitation<\/a>\u201d to Chinese officials to join the US and Russia in Austria for New START talks, even though Beijing has long said<\/a> it won\u2019t sign on to New START since its arsenal<\/a> is so much smaller than Washington\u2019s and Moscow\u2019s.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“New START \u2014 the last major arms control deal between the US and Russia \u2014 may expire if China doesn\u2019t join in. It\u2019s a deeply misguided stance, experts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey [the Chinese government] don\u2019t trust arms control,\u201d Tong Zhao, a Beijing-based expert on China\u2019s nuclear program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me. \u201cThey don\u2019t see it as a way to defend Chinese security interests. They view arms control as a way to control others\u2019 military power, so they want to delay Chinese arms control as much as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat mainstream view in China is entrenched and cynical,\u201d Zhao continued. \u201cIt\u2019ll take decades to change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s why nuclear experts like Nunn, the former US senator from Georgia, argues the US should at most try to get Beijing to make an anti-nuclear statement along with Washington and Moscow, but not try to get them to sign a new pact before February. \u201cBut in the long run,\u201d Nunn made sure to say, \u201cChina needs to be involved\u201d in an arms control agreement with the Americans and Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others are skeptical of the Trump administration\u2019s intentions. While there is merit in discussing arms control with the Chinese \u2014 especially on issues of nuclear weapons, hypersonics, and cybersecurity \u2014 they say pushing for those talks on such a tight timeline is nothing short of a ruse to kill New START.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Three main consequences of the imminent death of arms control as we know it are broadly expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the US may lose global legitimacy as a leader in stopping nuclear proliferation.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Second, the end of an important era in global security fades away with nothing to replace or build on it. \u201cThe good old days when arms control was going hand-in-hand with a cooperative security relationship \u2014 which basically ties my security to your security \u2014 those days are gone, and I don\u2019t see them coming back,\u201d said the University of Hamburg\u2019s K\u00fchn. The only chance of a return to that time, he added, would likely be after Trump, Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping leave their offices.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Third, yes, the risk of a nuclear exchange between the world\u2019s foremost powers will go up. Few I spoke to, though, argued that possibility would grow immediately.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n


https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world\/21131449\/trump-putin-nuclear-usa-russia-arms-control-new-start<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“why get out of a deal that almost everyone says is vital to keeping US-Russia relations stable? The answer is China. \u201cWe need to make sure that we\u2019ve got all of the parties that are relevant as a component of this as well,\u201d Pompeo told<\/p>\n

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