\n\n“Russia\u2019s main strategy is to sow discord and division, and diminish faith in democracy. Italso favors President Donald Trump, partly because he helps advance the first two goals, and because of his oft-stated desire to improve relations between Washington and Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China and Iran are more averse to chaos in the US, and are much more focused on pushing their own national objectives. They want different things from the United States, Emerson T. Brooking, a resident fellow at the Digital Forensic Research Lab of the Atlantic Council, told me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For China, that might mean promoting its Covid-19 narrative, or getting the US to shut up about Hong Kong protests<\/a>. For Iran, that could mean promoting criticism of Israel or US sanctions policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All three countries have different capabilities. China might notuse online trolls in the way Russia or even Iran does because it has other, far more effective tools \u2014 economic, technological \u2014 that could achieve those aims.And, of course, interference may go beyond disinformation or influence campaigns. There is the threat of hacking or cyber intrusions<\/a> of politicians, or campaigns, or even election infrastructure<\/a>. There is also a concern over how individuals with ties to foreign governments might use money in politics<\/a>. And there\u2019s probably something else, because as one analyst told me, what the US doesn\u2019t want to be doing is fighting the last war.” Taken together, Moscow\u2019s tactics create chaos and distrust in US institutions and democracy, exacerbating America\u2019s partisan divides like a finger pressed to a bruise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Based on what\u2019s known publicly, China and Iran are echoing some of those strategies. They\u2019re spreading disinformation<\/a>. They reportedly targeted campaigns and political entities<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But China and Iran want different things when it comes to America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia wants to disrupt and destabilize and confuse people on how to see the world. Iran and China would like the world to see things their way. At least right now, China, in particular, sees a lot more value in building itself up than in tearing America apart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFor China and Iran, ultimately, their interests are not served by an American political system that is chaotic, unable to think long-term, make strategic decisions about their relationships with either of those two countries,\u201d Priscilla Moriuchi, an expert on state-sponsored cyber operations and fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is not to say that China and Iran are cool with the United States as is. But China doesn\u2019t want a chaotic world, Brookings\u2019s West told me. It wants stability. So if it\u2019s going to meddle in the 2020 election, it\u2019s not out to cause Russian-style pandemonium.” … As for Iran, the ODNI says it seeks to \u201cundermine President Trump\u201d and democratic institutions, saying it\u2019s mostly focused on online and anti-US propaganda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This has created a sense that Russia is on one side and China and Iran are on the other \u2014 one for Trump, two for Biden. But this is the wrong way to look at it, experts told me. It muddles the actual efforts and objectives of each of these actors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt\u2019s certainly true that different US adversaries might have different preferences for the outcome of the election,\u201d Brooking, of the Atlantic Council, told me. \u201cBut they don\u2019t go about executing their goals the same way.\u201d”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n ” This is a US presidential election; Beijing has a preference, but so do Brussels and Mexico City and Tokyo. Allies and adversaries alike are going to have an idea of an outcome they\u2019d like to see based on their own foreign policy, national security, and economic interests. As Cordero said, that\u2019s not the same thing as \u201ctaking specific actions using their intelligence services, using their military, cyber capability to actively affect the outcome of our election.\u201d”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “”it is not clear that China is really interested in turning a lot of this apparatus to privilege one candidate or another in the presidential election.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n So far, China hasn\u2019t really shown itself to be interested in that kind of disruption, James Andrew Lewis, senior vice president and director of the Technology Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told me. Instead, he said, China is \u201cmore interested in getting the US off their back.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWith China, it\u2019s to benefit China,\u201d Nina Jankowicz, a disinformation fellow at the Wilson Center”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Moriuchi, at the Belfer Center, cautioned against the notion that this somehow means China is the JV team to Russia\u2019s varsity, because, again, they\u2019re essentially playing two different games. Russia is trying to disrupt the 2020 election and see what kind of disorder it can create. Beijing is playing the long game.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Russia is an adversary, but Moscow can\u2019t directly challenge the US\u2019s economic dominance, or its position in global hegemony. Trying to bolster the Russian political system in the US wouldn\u2019t be as useful in weakening US democracy as, for instance, amplifying doubts about mail-in voting<\/a>.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n … <\/p>\n\n\n\n “Russia\u2019s disruption tactics are a kind of asymmetric warfare<\/a> against a larger power. It\u2019s low tech and not all that costly, but America\u2019s homegrown political dysfunction has made it seem wildly effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This isn\u2019t the case for China. China is<\/em> challenging the US for global hegemony. \u201cChina \u2014 the Chinese Communist Party \u2014 believes it is in a generational fight to surpass our country in economic and technological leadership,\u201d FBI Director Christopher Wray said in July<\/a>. China does want to manipulate the American political system to help achieve those ends. It just has a lot more capabilities than Russia does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt\u2019s certainly true that if China wanted, they could have extraordinary impact on this social media space,\u201d Brooking said. \u201cBut the Chinese also don\u2019t need to do that.\u201d They\u2019re the second-largest economy in the world, he added. \u201cThey have so many levers of influence and power, which don\u2019t rely on creating sock puppet accounts and botnets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n China is carefully, and strategically, expanding its influence in the US in ways that might not fit with our perception of \u201cmeddling.\u201d And if China doesn\u2019t like what the US or others are saying about its policies, it doesn\u2019t necessarily need to rely on a fake Facebook page.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “\u201cThe Chinese don\u2019t want you to say what we did in Hong Kong was bad, and they use market pressure and money and influence operations to push that China\u2019s great: \u2018Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain,\u2019\u201d CSIS\u2019s Lewis said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This also prompts certain industries or institutions to self-censor, tiptoeing around sensitive issues to avoid displeasing China. But China can also more directly use its economic prowess, enticing Wall Street or Hollywood with investment<\/a> or funding think tanks and universities that may push more Beijing-friendly talking points<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are also legitimate concerns about what China is doing with its technology. China uses apps like WeChat<\/a> to spread pro-Chinese messaging, including to the Chinese diaspora around the world, and the government almost certainly uses it as a surveillance tool. The same goes for concerns about censorship and\/or data tracking on Chinese-owned apps like TikTok<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And then there are the hacking operations meant to gather intelligence \u2014 that is, to spy. FBI Director Wray said in that same July<\/a> speech that the US opens a counterintelligence case against China every 10 hours; of the FBI\u2019s 5,000 counterintelligence cases, about half involve China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has waged a relentless campaign to steal technological and trade secrets from the United States<\/a>. Hackers with ties to Chinese military or intelligence have carried out cyber operations to steal massive amounts of data \u2014 hacks like the 2017 Equifax breach<\/a> that affected about half of all Americans, or the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) hack<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “So China is probing campaigns like the Russians (and Iranians), but what it will do with that information is a lot less clear. In 2016, Russia released stolen information through WikiLeaks, which was far more dramatic and influential than just quietly collecting information for its own use. China, we know, has these cyber capabilities, but so far it hasn\u2019t tried to dump any information to alter the presidential race.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Iran definitely has cyber capabilities. But Zoli said, overall, they\u2019re not sophisticated enough to have a truly enormous impact. \u201cThey don\u2019t have the capabilities and they haven\u2019t thought through a really multi-pronged strategy. They\u2019re not going after, you know, these ancillary institutional sites to try to have a big impact on political decision-making.\u201d”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Plenty of other countries \u2014 even those who\u2019d fall into the US ally camp \u2014 are using social media to spread state propaganda, or messaging that favors their foreign policy goals. Saudi Arabia-linked accounts\u00a0have spread pro-Trump messaging on Twitter<\/a>. During the George Floyd protests, Turkey\u00a0tried to link Syrian Kurds to antifa<\/a>. Whether this stuff really works isn\u2019t the point; it doesn\u2019t require a lot of resources, it\u2019s not all that complicated, and right now, getting taken down by Twitter or Facebook is a fairly low cost.”\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
…
“A Department of Homeland Security whistleblower complaint also alleges<\/a> that the administration tried to downplay the Russia threat because it upsets Trump, and that National Security Adviser Robert O\u2019Brien pressured the department to elevate China and Iran activities to the level of Russia\u2019s, even though that didn\u2019t fit with the actual intelligence data available<\/a>.”
…
“Russia is still pushing disinformation through social media<\/a> and has reportedly attempted to hack campaigns associated with both Democrats and Republicans<\/a>. The Kremlin is also filtering pro-Russia narratives through Ukrainian politicians<\/a> to undermine Biden and the Democrats, talking points that are being regurgitated by Trump <\/a>and GOP allies<\/a>. The ODNI has said<\/a> that Russia \u201cis using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“The ODNI report says Russia wants to denigrate Biden, but says Iran and China have particular preferences when it comes to the 2020 election. US intelligence assess China \u201cprefers that President Trump \u2013 whom Beijing sees as unpredictable \u2013 does not win reelection.\u201d But the ODNI doesn\u2019t say that China is necessarily tipping the scales for Biden. Instead, China\u2019s operations are mostly focused on deflecting criticism of China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n