{"id":4088,"date":"2020-12-26T15:24:49","date_gmt":"2020-12-26T15:24:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=4088"},"modified":"2020-12-26T15:24:49","modified_gmt":"2020-12-26T15:24:49","slug":"what-we-know-about-how-white-and-latino-americans-voted-in-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=4088","title":{"rendered":"What We Know About How White and Latino Americans Voted In 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n\n“In the lead-up to the election, there were plenty of signs<\/a> that Biden\u2019s support among Latino voters in key swing states might be weaker<\/a> than Clinton\u2019s in 2016, but some of the shifts wound up being very large. In Florida\u2019s Miami-Dade County, for instance, which is 68 percent Hispanic, Trump narrowed his deficit by 22 percentage points between 2016 and 2020; in Texas\u2019s Starr County, which is 99 percent Hispanic, Trump improved by a stunning 55 percentage points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, as the chart below shows, Trump\u2019s gains among Latino voters were hardly universal. In fact, the places where Trump appears to have gained the most support were largely in rural areas or among more conservative Latino voters like Cuban Americans. In suburban and urban areas, the story was much more mixed. (And, to be clear, Biden still won the overwhelming majority of Latino votes.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One important factor to keep in mind here \u2014 which is partially why some of these shifts toward Trump seem so pronounced \u2014 is that Trump did really<\/em> poorly with Latino voters in 2016. According to pre-election surveys, he won just 18 percent of Latino voters in 2016<\/a> but 27 percent this year<\/a>, putting him back in the territory<\/a> of other recent Republican presidential nominees<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, part of what we\u2019re seeing here isn\u2019t necessarily something unique to Latino voters at all, but an extension of America\u2019s growing urban-rural divide.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The education split has been especially significant among white voters<\/a>, and this rift appears to have widened as Trump lost ground in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, especially in areas where many white voters have four-year college degrees.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Part of what is happening, according to Arlie Hochschild<\/a>, a sociologist at the University of California who has written extensively about conservative voters, is that many less educated white voters have come to see Trump as their champion. \u201cThey feel that Trump is making them<\/em> great again \u2014 their social class and their identity as whites,\u201d she said. \u201cMany of them feel that as white [people], they\u2019re discriminated against.\u201d She added that even if Biden might have personally appealed to those voters, it might not have been enough to overcome their suspicion that the Democratic Party as a whole was hostile to their worldview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Importantly, Trump\u2019s gains among white voters without a college degree were less substantial than his losses among educated white voters, and that appears to have cost him in these three states. This was most stark in Wisconsin<\/a>, where Trump\u2019s margin improved in 39 of the state\u2019s 72 counties, but fell in 31 and didn\u2019t change in two. The counties where he lost ground tended to be bigger and more well-educated, while the ones where he gained were generally smaller and less well-educated. In aggregate, these shifts added up to a narrow loss in Wisconsin for Trump in 2020 instead of the close win he achieved in 2016.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/what-we-know-about-how-white-and-latino-americans-voted-in-2020\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“In the lead-up to the election, there were plenty of signs that Biden\u2019s support among Latino voters in key swing states might be weaker than Clinton\u2019s in 2016, but some of the shifts wound up being very large. In Florida\u2019s Miami-Dade County, for instance, which is 68 percent Hispanic, Trump narrowed his deficit by 22 percentage points between 2016 and 2020; in Texas\u2019s Starr County, which is 99 percent Hispanic, Trump improved by a stunning 55 percentage points.<\/p>\n

However, as the chart below shows, Trump\u2019s gains among Latino voters were hardly universal. In fact, the places where Trump appears to have gained the most support were largely in rural areas or among more conservative Latino voters like Cuban Americans. In suburban and urban areas, the story was much more mixed. (And, to be clear, Biden still won the overwhelming majority of Latino votes.)<\/p>\n

One important factor to keep in mind here \u2014 which is partially why some of these shifts toward Trump seem so pronounced \u2014 is that Trump did really poorly with Latino voters in 2016. According to pre-election surveys, he won just 18 percent of Latino voters in 2016 but 27 percent this year, putting him back in the territory of other recent Republican presidential nominees.<\/p>\n

Additionally, part of what we\u2019re seeing here isn\u2019t necessarily something unique to Latino voters at all, but an extension of America\u2019s growing urban-rural divide.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“The education split has been especially significant among white voters, and this rift appears to have widened as Trump lost ground in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, especially in areas where many white voters have four-year college degrees.” <\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“Part of what is happening, according to Arlie Hochschild, a sociologist at the University of California who has written extensively about conservative voters, is that many less educated white voters have come to see Trump as their champion. \u201cThey feel that Trump is making them great again \u2014 their social class and their identity as whites,\u201d she said. \u201cMany of them feel that as white [people], they\u2019re discriminated against.\u201d She added that even if Biden might have personally appealed to those voters, it might not have been enough to overcome their suspicion that the Democratic Party as a whole was hostile to their worldview.<\/p>\n

Importantly, Trump\u2019s gains among white voters without a college degree were less substantial than his losses among educated white voters, and that appears to have cost him in these three states. This was most stark in Wisconsin, where Trump\u2019s margin improved in 39 of the state\u2019s 72 counties, but fell in 31 and didn\u2019t change in two. The counties where he lost ground tended to be bigger and more well-educated, while the ones where he gained were generally smaller and less well-educated. In aggregate, these shifts added up to a narrow loss in Wisconsin for Trump in 2020 instead of the close win he achieved in 2016.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[221,1118,372,943,944,706,170,1117,386,1088,368],"class_list":["post-4088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-donald-trump","tag-educated","tag-election","tag-hispanic","tag-latino","tag-rural","tag-trump","tag-urban","tag-voters","tag-votes","tag-white"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4088"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4088\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4089,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4088\/revisions\/4089"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}