{"id":4092,"date":"2020-12-26T23:51:47","date_gmt":"2020-12-26T23:51:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=4092"},"modified":"2020-12-26T23:51:47","modified_gmt":"2020-12-26T23:51:47","slug":"the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=4092","title":{"rendered":"The Polls Weren\u2019t Great. But That\u2019s Pretty Normal."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n\n“I don\u2019t entirely<\/em> understand the polls-were-wrong storyline<\/a>. This year was definitely a little weird, given that the vote share margins were often fairly far off from the polls (including in some high-profile examples such as Wisconsin and Florida). But at the same time, a high percentage of states (likely 48 out of 50) were \u201ccalled\u201d correctly, as was the overall Electoral College and popular vote winner (Biden). And that\u2019s usually<\/em> how polls are judged: Did they identify the right winner?” 
…
“the margins by which the polls missed \u2014 underestimating President Trump by what will likely end up being 3 to 4 percentage points in national and swing state polls \u2014 is actually pretty normal by historical standards<\/a>.” 
…
“However, there are nevertheless reasons to be concerned about the polls going forward, especially if it\u2019s hard to get a truly representative sample of people on the phone<\/a>.” 
…
“Voters and the media need to recalibrate their expectations around polls \u2014 not necessarily because anything\u2019s changed, but because those expectations demanded an unrealistic level of precision \u2014 while simultaneously resisting the urge to \u201cthrow all the polls out.\u201d”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
The Polls Weren’t Great. But That’s Pretty Normal.<\/a><\/blockquote>