\n\n“these two international crises highlight a major challenge Biden will face over the next four years, just as other presidents before him did: how to support democratic movements in places where the US doesn\u2019t have actually much leverage, and where doing so could end up hurting the very movements the US wants to support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Myanmar, the US has few options<\/a> to push the ruling generals to reverse course, especially since it provides almost no financial assistance to the government. As for Russia, any American effort to bolster democracy in and around it is viewed as a threat to be stamped out and delegitimized<\/a>. Last October, shortly after the Kremlin poisoned and nearly killed Navalny, Putin\u2019s regime claimed the dissident worked with the CIA<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n American leaders with high hopes of ushering in a more democratic future inevitably run into the harsh reality of their limitations and the opposing forces working against them. \u201cEvery administration for the last 30 years has struggled with this,\u201d said Erin Snider, an expert on US democracy promotion at Texas A&M University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Myanmar and Russia, then, show the Biden administration is already in the thick of this dilemma.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Biden is also looking into the possibility of placing economic sanctions on Myanmar in the coming weeks. But while that would potentially give the US additional leverage over the military generals ruling the country, it could backfire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That\u2019s because some experts have warned<\/a> that doing so could end up increasing authoritarian China\u2019s already immense economic influence in Myanmar while pushing out democratic countries like South Korea and Japan<\/a>, which have worked to develop economic and military ties to the country and break China\u2019s \u201cstranglehold\u201d there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And though China has had a complicated relationship with Myanmar\u2019s military regime, it\u2019s unlikely closer ties between the two countries will bode well for Myanmar\u2019s pro-democracy movement \u2014 or for the Biden administration\u2019s efforts to counter China\u2019s growing influence in the region.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “it\u2019s not clear the US actually has many ways of successfully pushing Russia to change. The Kremlin rejects any efforts at democratization in Russia and its surroundings, while pro-democracy groups like Navalny\u2019s get stamped out the second they become overly threatening. The best way to punish Russia would be to get European nations to curb ties with Moscow, but that\u2019s always proven hard for any US administration to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n No one expects Biden, or any US administration, to depose autocrats and usher in full-blown democracies over his four or even eight years. At most, the US can move the needle a little bit so that, over time, a country liberalizes so organic democracy movements can grow. But even incremental progress requires trade-offs, ones that require the president and his team to assess how much they value a foreign nation\u2019s democratic leanings against everything else.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n