{"id":4830,"date":"2021-03-31T16:21:34","date_gmt":"2021-03-31T16:21:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=4830"},"modified":"2021-03-31T16:21:34","modified_gmt":"2021-03-31T16:21:34","slug":"bidens-stated-rationale-for-extending-americas-war-in-afghanistan-is-weak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=4830","title":{"rendered":"Biden\u2019s stated rationale for extending America\u2019s war in Afghanistan is weak"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n\n“President Joe Biden all but said during his first formal press conference<\/a> on Thursday that the United States would likely extend its 20-year military campaign in Afghanistan for at least a few more months beyond the May 1 withdrawal deadline set by the Trump administration\u2019s agreement with the Taliban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s his prerogative, of course. But some experts and advocates of withdrawing say his stated reason for keeping US troops in harm\u2019s way for a while longer \u2014 that in terms of sheer logistics, it would be hard to pull the remaining 3,500 US troops out the country by that date \u2014 is weak.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The choice facing Biden was always a tough one: Abide by the Trump-era agreement and leave by May 1 \u2014 risking the Taliban\u2019s hostile takeover of the country as soon as the US departs and the reversal of progress on women\u2019s and children\u2019s rights that would inevitably follow; or violate the agreement and stay in order to pressure the Taliban to strike a peace deal with the Afghan government<\/a>, risking more dead American service members in the meantime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither is a great option, which may explain why Biden seems to have chosen a sort of muddled middle path: withdraw, but likely later this year \u2014 and make it look less like a strategic decision about the US\u2019s role in the country\u2019s peace process going forward and more like merely a function of logistical realities on the ground.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“while there are legitimate logistical challenges to pulling out US troops by that tight deadline, some experts I spoke to aren\u2019t convinced that\u2019s what\u2019s really driving Biden\u2019s foot-dragging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most analysts and even top congressional Democrats<\/a> acknowledge that, at this point, the US can\u2019t<\/em> withdraw from Afghanistan safely by May 1, even if Biden were to order that today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main problem isn\u2019t removing the service members themselves, but rather all of their equipment, from the landlocked country. America and its allies could leave things like vehicles and guns behind as part of a hurried exit, but then the Taliban or other terrorist groups could use them for their purposes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt takes a while to do [this] methodically and well,\u201d said Jonathan Schroden, an expert on the war at the CNA think tank in Arlington, Virginia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But some experts and advocates for withdrawal cite two reasons for why Biden\u2019s rationale rings hollow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the timing: \u201cIf what he wanted was the fastest possible out, that could have been the order in January,\u201d said Andrew Watkins, the International Crisis Group\u2019s senior analyst for Afghanistan  
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simply put, the administration is surely aware of how long a safe withdrawal takes. Biden, then, effectively made the decision to keep troops in the country beyond the deadline by not making a decision until he\u2019d passed the point where that was possible.   
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Second, some say that despite its harsh rhetoric<\/a> demanding \u201call foreign troops…withdraw on the specific date,\u201d the Taliban probably wouldn\u2019t consider it a violation of the agreement and start targeting American troops even if the US hadn\u2019t gotten every last person or piece of equipment out of the country by May 1, as long as Biden had announced his order to withdraw and it was genuinely underway.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Put together, experts say Biden\u2019s case to the nation for why the US should remain in Afghanistan a little longer doesn\u2019t hold up. Biden\u2019s true intention, they divine, is that the president and his team believe their long-shot push for a diplomatic solution<\/a> to the 20-year war requires prolonging America\u2019s military presence.”
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“So why didn\u2019t Biden just say that during the press conference?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some experts said the US may still be working to agree to an extension with the Taliban, and openly stating America will remain beyond May 1 to keep the insurgents at the table wouldn\u2019t play well until there\u2019s an understanding. Plus, citing logistical concerns might draw less backlash from the American public than extending the military presence in search of an unlikely peace deal.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2021\/3\/26\/22352204\/biden-afghanistan-press-conference-logistics-diplomacy<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“President Joe Biden all but said during his first formal press conference on Thursday that the United States would likely extend its 20-year military campaign in Afghanistan for at least a few more months beyond the May 1 withdrawal deadline set by the Trump administration\u2019s agreement with the Taliban.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s his prerogative, of course. But some experts and advocates of withdrawing say his stated reason for keeping US troops in harm\u2019s way for a while longer \u2014 that in terms of sheer logistics, it would be hard to pull the remaining 3,500 US troops out the country by that date \u2014 is weak.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“The choice facing Biden was always a tough one: Abide by the Trump-era agreement and leave by May 1 \u2014 risking the Taliban\u2019s hostile takeover of the country as soon as the US departs and the reversal of progress on women\u2019s and children\u2019s rights that would inevitably follow; or violate the agreement and stay in order to pressure the Taliban to strike a peace deal with the Afghan government, risking more dead American service members in the meantime.<\/p>\n

Neither is a great option, which may explain why Biden seems to have chosen a sort of muddled middle path: withdraw, but likely later this year \u2014 and make it look less like a strategic decision about the US\u2019s role in the country\u2019s peace process going forward and more like merely a function of logistical realities on the ground.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“while there are legitimate logistical challenges to pulling out US troops by that tight deadline, some experts I spoke to aren\u2019t convinced that\u2019s what\u2019s really driving Biden\u2019s foot-dragging.<\/p>\n

Most analysts and even top congressional Democrats acknowledge that, at this point, the US can\u2019t withdraw from Afghanistan safely by May 1, even if Biden were to order that today.<\/p>\n

The main problem isn\u2019t removing the service members themselves, but rather all of their equipment, from the landlocked country. America and its allies could leave things like vehicles and guns behind as part of a hurried exit, but then the Taliban or other terrorist groups could use them for their purposes.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt takes a while to do [this] methodically and well,\u201d said Jonathan Schroden, an expert on the war at the CNA think tank in Arlington, Virginia.<\/p>\n

But some experts and advocates for withdrawal cite two reasons for why Biden\u2019s rationale rings hollow.<\/p>\n

First, the timing: \u201cIf what he wanted was the fastest possible out, that could have been the order in January,\u201d said Andrew Watkins, the International Crisis Group\u2019s senior analyst for Afghanistan <\/p>\n

Simply put, the administration is surely aware of how long a safe withdrawal takes. Biden, then, effectively made the decision to keep troops in the country beyond the deadline by not making a decision until he\u2019d passed the point where that was possible. <\/p>\n

Second, some say that despite its harsh rhetoric demanding \u201call foreign troops…withdraw on the specific date,\u201d the Taliban probably wouldn\u2019t consider it a violation of the agreement and start targeting American troops even if the US hadn\u2019t gotten every last person or piece of equipment out of the country by May 1, as long as Biden had announced his order to withdraw and it was genuinely underway.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“Put together, experts say Biden\u2019s case to the nation for why the US should remain in Afghanistan a little longer doesn\u2019t hold up. Biden\u2019s true intention, they divine, is that the president and his team believe their long-shot push for a diplomatic solution to the 20-year war requires prolonging America\u2019s military presence.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“So why didn\u2019t Biden just say that during the press conference?<\/p>\n

Some experts said the US may still be working to agree to an extension with the Taliban, and openly stating America will remain beyond May 1 to keep the insurgents at the table wouldn\u2019t play well until there\u2019s an understanding. Plus, citing logistical concerns might draw less backlash from the American public than extending the military presence in search of an unlikely peace deal.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[435,552,272,355,780,158],"class_list":["post-4830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-afghanistan","tag-conflict","tag-foreign-affairs","tag-foreign-policy","tag-joe-biden","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4830"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4830\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4831,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4830\/revisions\/4831"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}