{"id":5181,"date":"2021-05-12T17:02:31","date_gmt":"2021-05-12T17:02:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=5181"},"modified":"2021-05-12T17:02:31","modified_gmt":"2021-05-12T17:02:31","slug":"why-joe-manchin-is-so-willing-and-able-to-block-his-partys-goals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=5181","title":{"rendered":"Why Joe Manchin Is So Willing And Able To Block His Party\u2019s Goals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

“Because voters increasingly back the same party in congressional and presidential races, only six of the 100 currently serving senators are from a different party than the one their state backed in the 2020 presidential election.1<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0Even among that group, Manchin stands apart. Hillary Clinton and Biden were completely trounced by Donald Trump in West Virginia in 2016 (42 percentage points) and\u00a02020<\/a>\u00a0(39 points), respectively. But in\u00a02018<\/a>, Manchin won in West Virginia (by 3 points) despite\u00a0an aggressive GOP effort<\/a>\u00a0to defeat him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


In fact, considering the extreme GOP lean in West Virginia, Manchin\u2019s 2012 and 2018 victories are two of the most impressive wins of any American politician in the 21st century.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n


…<\/p>\n\n\n\n


“However he is doing it, though, Manchin\u2019s winning a very red state gives him incredible power. He is a lifelong Democrat and\u00a0seems committed to the party<\/a>. But he doesn\u2019t really owe Biden, his fellow Senate Democrats or the formal Democratic Party much of anything \u2014 his political brand is really separate from theirs.”\u00a0\u00a0
…
“it\u2019s not clear that Manchin\u2019s behavior is totally, or even mostly, electorally driven. First, we\u2019re not positive that Manchin will run again. The West Virginian\u00a0will be 74 in August<\/a>. So, if he seeks another term \u2014 he\u2019s up for reelection in 2024 \u2014 he would essentially be planning to remain in the Senate until he is 83.”
…
“even if Manchin is running and thinks he can win, it\u2019s not totally clear that his moves right now to limit Biden\u2019s agenda are that electorally helpful. Manchin no doubt benefits electorally from keeping some distance from the Democratic Party. At the same time, can Manchin really earn a lot of votes by pushing Democrats to offer people $300 a week in federal unemployment benefits instead of $400, as he did\u00a0during the stimulus negotiations<\/a>? Will West Virginia swing voters in 2024 remember and appreciate that Manchin wouldn\u2019t go along with Biden\u2019s nominee to run OMB? On both questions the answer is probably not. In fact, on the most-high-profile issues (the stimulus package, Trump\u2019s impeachments), Manchin tends to vote with his party.”\u00a0\u00a0
…
” the West Virginia senator seems to\u00a0sincerely disagree with the dominant view<\/a>\u00a0among\u00a0 Democrats that\u00a0the GOP is totally unwilling<\/a>\u00a0to work with Democrats when a Democratic president is in office. Manchin argues that there is real potential for bills pushed by Biden and Democrats to get support from at least a few GOP lawmakers if Democrats\u00a0really try to work with the GOP<\/a>. He is balking at changing the filibuster rules in part because he thinks that bipartisanshipis possible but neither party is trying hard enough.”
…
“The\u00a0evidence is considerable<\/a>\u00a0that the overwhelming majority of Republicans on Capitol Hill aren\u2019t going to support any major policy initiatives backed by a Democratic president. So Manchin\u2019s view of his GOP colleagues seems somewhat untethered from reality. But his optimism about the potential for bipartisanship makes sense from\u00a0his<\/em>\u00a0perspective. After all, Manchin is\u00a0friendly with a lot of Republicans<\/a>\u00a0on Capitol Hill,\u00a0most notably Collins<\/a>. He and a bipartisan group of lawmakers were key figures in\u00a0passing a COVID-19 relief bill in December<\/a>.”
…
“Manchin may not see the contentious issues of the day \u2014 in particular, the filibuster and voting rights \u2014 in the extremely high-stakes, democracy-in-peril, \u201cJim Crow in new clothes<\/a>\u201d way that other Democrats do. West Virginia is not\u00a0Georgia<\/a>, which\u00a0has a Republican coalition dominated by white people<\/a>\u00a0trying to hold on to power\u00a0by any means necessary<\/a>\u00a0against a growing Democratic coalition in which people of color are the majority. West Virginia\u2019s non-Hispanic white population is\u00a092 percent<\/a>, much higher than the nation overall (60 percent). I\u2019m not suggesting that Manchin doesn\u2019t care about Black voting rights, but he doesn\u2019t have a huge Black constituency pressing him on this issue, as only 4 percent of West Virginians are Black (compared with 13 percent in the nation overall).”\u00a0\u00a0
…
” it\u2019s entirely possible that Manchin really cares about voting rights but thinks that getting rid of the filibuster and passing election-reform legislation on party-line votes is bad electorally for the broader Democratic Party (not just for him) and worse than Democrats trying to win elections even after some of these GOP-backed voting laws are in place. Manchin, as I noted earlier, seems deeply committed to the Democratic Party. But he might disagree with the dominant electoral thinking in the party. After all, emphasizing bipartisanship is Manchin\u2019s strategy, and\u00a0he\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0the one winning in a super-Republican state.”
…
“Manchin seems to be ideologically to the right of most congressional Democrats, electoral considerations aside. In a Democratic Party that is\u00a0increasingly organized around pushing for economic and racial equality<\/a>, Manchin and the party\u2019s more liberal members are essentially from different planets. There is little evidence that Manchin got into politics to implement his deeply held vision for changing the American economy (like Sen. Elizabeth Warren<\/a>) or its racial policies (Sen. Raphael Warnock<\/a>). Manchin is\u00a0more an old-style politician<\/a>. He\u00a0grew up in a small coal mining town<\/a>\u00a0in West Virginia (Farmington), where\u00a0his father and grandfather had both been mayor<\/a>. In 1982, at age 35, he was elected to the West Virginia House of Delegates and climbed the ladder from there \u2014 state senator, secretary of state, governor, U.S. senator.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cJoe Manchin was always a center to center-right Democrat,\u201d”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Put all that together and the Democratic Party\u2019s fate is in the hands of a man who doesn\u2019t owe the party anything, can\u2019t support some of its agenda for electoral reasons and probably just disagrees with some of that agenda anyway. Much of the Democratic Party believes that the\u00a0biggest problem in politics<\/a>\u00a0is that the GOP is becoming anti-democratic and that this anti-democratic drift is an emergency for the country. Manchin sees the Republican Party as including people he can work with and seems to think that the biggest problem in politics is that elected officials on both sides aren\u2019t being bipartisan enough. This difference in views between Manchin and much of the rest of the party may be irreconcilable. But if they aren\u2019t reconciled, Manchin\u2019s view will win out, because he has a deciding vote and seems very much willing to use it.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n


https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/why-joe-manchin-is-so-willing-and-able-to-block-his-partys-goals\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Because voters increasingly back the same party in congressional and presidential races, only six of the 100 currently serving senators are from a different party than the one their state backed in the 2020 presidential election.1 Even among that group, Manchin stands apart. Hillary Clinton and Biden were completely trounced by Donald Trump in West Virginia in 2016 (42 percentage points) and 2020 (39 points), respectively. But in 2018, Manchin won in West Virginia (by 3 points) despite an aggressive GOP effort to defeat him.<\/p>\n

In fact, considering the extreme GOP lean in West Virginia, Manchin\u2019s 2012 and 2018 victories are two of the most impressive wins of any American politician in the 21st century.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“However he is doing it, though, Manchin\u2019s winning a very red state gives him incredible power. He is a lifelong Democrat and seems committed to the party. But he doesn\u2019t really owe Biden, his fellow Senate Democrats or the formal Democratic Party much of anything \u2014 his political brand is really separate from theirs.” <\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“it\u2019s not clear that Manchin\u2019s behavior is totally, or even mostly, electorally driven. First, we\u2019re not positive that Manchin will run again. The West Virginian will be 74 in August. So, if he seeks another term \u2014 he\u2019s up for reelection in 2024 \u2014 he would essentially be planning to remain in the Senate until he is 83.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“even if Manchin is running and thinks he can win, it\u2019s not totally clear that his moves right now to limit Biden\u2019s agenda are that electorally helpful. Manchin no doubt benefits electorally from keeping some distance from the Democratic Party. At the same time, can Manchin really earn a lot of votes by pushing Democrats to offer people $300 a week in federal unemployment benefits instead of $400, as he did during the stimulus negotiations? Will West Virginia swing voters in 2024 remember and appreciate that Manchin wouldn\u2019t go along with Biden\u2019s nominee to run OMB? On both questions the answer is probably not. In fact, on the most-high-profile issues (the stimulus package, Trump\u2019s impeachments), Manchin tends to vote with his party.” <\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

” the West Virginia senator seems to sincerely disagree with the dominant view among Democrats that the GOP is totally unwilling to work with Democrats when a Democratic president is in office. Manchin argues that there is real potential for bills pushed by Biden and Democrats to get support from at least a few GOP lawmakers if Democrats really try to work with the GOP. He is balking at changing the filibuster rules in part because he thinks that bipartisanship is possible but neither party is trying hard enough.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“The evidence is considerable that the overwhelming majority of Republicans on Capitol Hill aren\u2019t going to support any major policy initiatives backed by a Democratic president. So Manchin\u2019s view of his GOP colleagues seems somewhat untethered from reality. But his optimism about the potential for bipartisanship makes sense from his perspective. After all, Manchin is friendly with a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill, most notably Collins. He and a bipartisan group of lawmakers were key figures in passing a COVID-19 relief bill in December.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“Manchin may not see the contentious issues of the day \u2014 in particular, the filibuster and voting rights \u2014 in the extremely high-stakes, democracy-in-peril, \u201cJim Crow in new clothes\u201d way that other Democrats do. West Virginia is not Georgia, which has a Republican coalition dominated by white people trying to hold on to power by any means necessary against a growing Democratic coalition in which people of color are the majority. West Virginia\u2019s non-Hispanic white population is 92 percent, much higher than the nation overall (60 percent). I\u2019m not suggesting that Manchin doesn\u2019t care about Black voting rights, but he doesn\u2019t have a huge Black constituency pressing him on this issue, as only 4 percent of West Virginians are Black (compared with 13 percent in the nation overall).” <\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

” it\u2019s entirely possible that Manchin really cares about voting rights but thinks that getting rid of the filibuster and passing election-reform legislation on party-line votes is bad electorally for the broader Democratic Party (not just for him) and worse than Democrats trying to win elections even after some of these GOP-backed voting laws are in place. Manchin, as I noted earlier, seems deeply committed to the Democratic Party. But he might disagree with the dominant electoral thinking in the party. After all, emphasizing bipartisanship is Manchin\u2019s strategy, and he\u2019s the one winning in a super-Republican state.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“Manchin seems to be ideologically to the right of most congressional Democrats, electoral considerations aside. In a Democratic Party that is increasingly organized around pushing for economic and racial equality, Manchin and the party\u2019s more liberal members are essentially from different planets. There is little evidence that Manchin got into politics to implement his deeply held vision for changing the American economy (like Sen. Elizabeth Warren) or its racial policies (Sen. Raphael Warnock). Manchin is more an old-style politician. He grew up in a small coal mining town in West Virginia (Farmington), where his father and grandfather had both been mayor. In 1982, at age 35, he was elected to the West Virginia House of Delegates and climbed the ladder from there \u2014 state senator, secretary of state, governor, U.S. senator.
\n\u201cJoe Manchin was always a center to center-right Democrat,\u201d”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“Put all that together and the Democratic Party\u2019s fate is in the hands of a man who doesn\u2019t owe the party anything, can\u2019t support some of its agenda for electoral reasons and probably just disagrees with some of that agenda anyway. Much of the Democratic Party believes that the biggest problem in politics is that the GOP is becoming anti-democratic and that this anti-democratic drift is an emergency for the country. Manchin sees the Republican Party as including people he can work with and seems to think that the biggest problem in politics is that elected officials on both sides aren\u2019t being bipartisan enough. This difference in views between Manchin and much of the rest of the party may be irreconcilable. But if they aren\u2019t reconciled, Manchin\u2019s view will win out, because he has a deciding vote and seems very much willing to use it.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[542,1172,1268],"class_list":["post-5181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-congress","tag-joe-manchin","tag-political-parties"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5181","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5181"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5181\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5182,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5181\/revisions\/5182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}