“there are a lot of factors that have nothing to do with Biden pushing migration higher. However, the level of increase, and evidence from on the ground, make clear that Biden is also a factor. I\u2019ll split the Biden effect into two related mechanisms: perceptions and policy.”
…
“That migrants perceived their chances as better under Biden has been attested to by several interviews of migrants. They thought Biden would let them stay, but they were misinformed\u2026and therefore sent back. Based on some of these interviews, it seems like some migrants have really gotten their hopes up due to Biden. That\u2019s sad. Sad because these are false hopes, and sad because nothing Biden did should have given them that much hope. Smugglers have lied to people, telling them they could get across now, but they are usually returned in disappointment. One woman wailed while being sent back across the border, \u201cBiden promised us!\u201d But\u2026he did not.”
…
“did Biden\u2019s foolish policies allow a massive surge of migrants? No. Biden\u2019s role in total migration numbers is the perception of him being more open than Trump, which there wasn\u2019t anything he could do about. On the influx of unaccompanied children, Biden policy did at least partially cause this because: by taking unaccompanied children into the country to process their claims while at the same time returning families to the border, he created an incentive for desperate people to send their children alone. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, much of the jump in numbers isn\u2019t the result of Biden coming or Trump leaving. The numbers follow seasonal patterns of migration. Seeing huge month to month jumps is misleading because it ignores that there are usually huge month to month jumps at this time of year. Comparing to 2020 is misleading because Covid-19 made it a suppressed year. The best comparison is to 2019, where we see migration following the same seasonal pattern under Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The elevation above those numbers is likely caused by: pent up demand due to Trump and Covid restrictions keeping people out and at the Mexican border, people crossing multiple times because they\u2019re sent directly to the border rather than being fully processed due to Covid protocols, push factors like two record breaking hurricanes and Covid, as well as the perception that Biden would be nicer to migrants. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
As far as criticisms of Biden go, this has nothing to do with open border policies because Biden doesn\u2019t have open border policies. This has nothing to do with Biden advertising himself as opening the borders because he has been doing the opposite. Big general criticisms that blame this surge on Biden are nonsense. Criticisms more focused on removing remain in Mexico or on allowing unaccompanied children across the border but not families, may be valid, but these policy changes didn\u2019t cause the current surge in migration.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n