\n\n“We\u2019ve got a couple different signaling audiences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There\u2019s Chinese domestic politics. National Day was October 1. It\u2019s often a day for the Chinese government to emphasize their nationalist credentials<\/a> and project hope for the future about reunifying China, whether that means Taiwan or suppressing the Uyghurs<\/a> or that kind of thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There\u2019s a Taiwanese politics component, specifically an attempt to demoralize the public that China is stronger and you can\u2019t win. The quote-unquote pragmatic choice is just to unify with us. Those tend to backfire. In 1996, China launched a couple missiles across the Taiwan Strait<\/a>. It ended up \u2014 there was an election in Taiwan at the time \u2014 boosting the less pro-China candidate<\/a>. And recently, with the protests and the crackdown in Hong Kong<\/a>, going into this most recent election the current president, Tsai Ing-wen [of the pro-Taiwan independence Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP], was looking a little bit shaky, especially among youth. But when all that happened in Hong Kong<\/a>, it was like, \u201cNope, we don\u2019t want this to happen to Taiwan.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n It also feeds into Taiwanese party politics. The Kuomintang Party [Taiwan\u2019s other major political party, which favors closer ties with mainland China] talking point is to say things like, \u201cWell, the DPP can\u2019t stabilize Taiwanese-Chinese relations. This is clearly an example of that \u2014 look at China\u2019s belligerence, we\u2019re better caretakers of the cross-strait relations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then there\u2019s international politics. The US, the UK, and four other countries<\/a> are doing military exercises in the East Philippine Sea<\/a>. So it\u2019s partly as a demonstration of, \u201cStay out, we have a dog in this fight as well, we have the ability to strike too.\u201d”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “I think recently \u2014 not just this October, but the previous few months \u2014 has been a response to the broader tightening of US alliances in the region. The Joe Biden administration has, kind of surprisingly to me, quickly coalesced a coalition<\/a> against China and tightened those alliance relationships that have been atrophying a bit under the Trump administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A lot of the countries in the region \u2014 Japan, South Korea, Philippines probably \u2014 they look at Taiwan as a litmus test for US commitment and Chinese assertiveness, which just puts China\u2019s back up.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “the US has a really tricky job here. It has to reassure Taiwan and take the lead in solidifying this coalition, but it has to do so in such a way that China doesn\u2019t think \u201cbetter strike now, or else we\u2019re going to lose this thing forever.\u201d And then the US has to kind of moderate its own policies toward China so it doesn\u2019t jumpstart a war on its own for some other issue area, like the South China Sea. It\u2019s a really tricky balancing act.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n