{"id":7069,"date":"2022-01-20T16:50:55","date_gmt":"2022-01-20T16:50:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=7069"},"modified":"2022-01-20T16:50:55","modified_gmt":"2022-01-20T16:50:55","slug":"the-great-population-growth-slowdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=7069","title":{"rendered":"The great population growth slowdown"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\n\n&#8220;Fewer babies&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/gothamist.com\/news\/nyc-had-most-deaths-since-1970s-fewest-births-ever-in-first-pandemic-year\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">were born<\/a>&nbsp;in New York City in 2020 than any year on record, while the US population&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/library\/stories\/2021\/12\/us-population-grew-in-2021-slowest-rate-since-founding-of-the-nation.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">grew<\/a>&nbsp;by just 0.1 percent in the year between July 2020 and July 2021, with the country adding just 392,665 people from net migration and births over deaths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s the lowest numeric increase since the Census Bureau began making annual population estimates at the beginning of the 20th century.On a percentage basis, it\u2019s the lowest growth in the nation\u2019s history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.webmd.com\/lung\/news\/20211122\/us-covid-deaths-2021-surpass-2020-total\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Increased deaths<\/a>&nbsp;from the pandemic plays a role, as do inevitably creeping mortality rates in an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ruralhealthinfo.org\/toolkits\/aging\/1\/demographics#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20population%20is%20aging,grow%20to%20almost%2090%20million.&amp;text=This%20means%20by%202030%2C%201,65%20years%20old%20and%20over.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">aging population<\/a>. But the primary cause is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/up-front\/2021\/05\/24\/will-births-in-the-us-rebound-probably-not\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">declining fertility rates<\/a>, as fewer Americans have children, and those that do tend to have smaller families. The total fertility rate in the US \u2014 an estimate of the average total number of children a woman will have over her lifetime \u2014 has declined from 2.12 in 2007 to 1.64 in 2020, well below the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wri.org\/research\/achieving-replacement-level-fertility#:~:text=%E2%80%9CReplacement%20level%20fertility%E2%80%9D%20is%20the,modestly%20vary%20with%20mortality%20rates.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.1 needed for a population<\/a>&nbsp;to replace itself without immigration.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;By&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ifstudies.org\/blog\/half-the-worlds-population-is-reaching-below-replacement-fertility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">one estimate<\/a>, half the world\u2019s population lives in countries with below-replacement-level fertility, and nations like Japan \u2014 with very low birth rates and little immigration \u2014 are&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/podcasts\/japans-population-problem#:~:text=But%20it's%20real.,level%20ever%20%2D%20just%2011%20percent.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">already experiencing population decline<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China, which became a symbol for population control with its coercive one-child policy, now has a fertility rate even lower than Japan\u2019s, and the government is&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/china-is-haunted-by-its-one-child-policy-as-it-tries-to-encourage-couples-to-conceive-11641205807?st=ombljg1tohinvoi&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">struggling to convince<\/a>&nbsp;shrinking numbers of young people to have more children \u2014 or&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/asia_pacific\/china-birth-control-vasectomy\/2021\/12\/09\/c89cc902-50b8-11ec-83d2-d9dab0e23b7e_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">any children at all<\/a>.&#8221;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;there\u2019s some evidence that many people aren\u2019t having as many children as they would like to. Surveys in the US&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ifstudies.org\/blog\/how-many-kids-do-women-want\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">show that the stated ideal number of kids in a family<\/a>&nbsp;has stayed a little above 2.5 since the mid-2000s, even as actual fertility rates have declined. Whether because of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/06\/16\/us\/declining-birthrate-motherhood.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">delayed partnership and marriage<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/plutusfoundation.org\/2021\/a-breakdown-of-the-cost-of-raising-a-child\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">economic concerns<\/a>, or&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/falling-fertility-rates-us-culture-c02dfe9d-23b0-439c-9320-41e1bc1813e3.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">changing lifestyle preferences<\/a>, there are forces keeping population growth below the level that people say they want.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/future-perfect\/2022\/1\/5\/22867184\/us-census-population-growth-slowdown-migration-birth-death\">https:\/\/www.vox.com\/future-perfect\/2022\/1\/5\/22867184\/us-census-population-growth-slowdown-migration-birth-death<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Fewer babies were born in New York City in 2020 than any year on record, while the US population grew by just 0.1 percent in the year between July 2020 and July 2021, with the country adding just 392,665 people from net migration and births over deaths.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s the lowest numeric increase since the Census Bureau began making annual population estimates at the beginning of the 20th century. On a percentage basis, it\u2019s the lowest growth in the nation\u2019s history.<\/p>\n<p>Increased deaths from the pandemic plays a role, as do inevitably creeping mortality rates in an aging population. But the primary cause is declining fertility rates, as fewer Americans have children, and those that do tend to have smaller families. The total fertility rate in the US \u2014 an estimate of the average total number of children a woman will have over her lifetime \u2014 has declined from 2.12 in 2007 to 1.64 in 2020, well below the 2.1 needed for a population to replace itself without immigration.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;By one estimate, half the world\u2019s population lives in countries with below-replacement-level fertility, and nations like Japan \u2014 with very low birth rates and little immigration \u2014 are already experiencing population decline.<\/p>\n<p>China, which became a symbol for population control with its coercive one-child policy, now has a fertility rate even lower than Japan\u2019s, and the government is struggling to convince shrinking numbers of young people to have more children \u2014 or any children at all.&#8221;  <\/p>\n<p>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;there\u2019s some evidence that many people aren\u2019t having as many children as they would like to. Surveys in the US show that the stated ideal number of kids in a family has stayed a little above 2.5 since the mid-2000s, even as actual fertility rates have declined. Whether because of delayed partnership and marriage, economic concerns, or changing lifestyle preferences, there are forces keeping population growth below the level that people say they want.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[625,168],"class_list":["post-7069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-births","tag-population"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7069"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7069\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7070,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7069\/revisions\/7070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}