\n\n“The historical pattern is clear, and ominous for Joe Biden and Democrats this year: The president\u2019s party usually does poorly in midterm elections.”
…
“Some theories focus on lower turnout among the president\u2019s supporters. Others emphasize the public\u2019s tendency to sour on an incumbent president. They may both be correct to some extent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Other theories focus on<\/a> why some presidents tend to do worse than others in midterms. Maybe the results are mainly about<\/a> presidential approval these days. Or maybe they\u2019re about the economy or, more specifically, real personal income growth<\/a>. Some national crises, like 9\/11, are associated with unexpectedly strong midterm performances for the president\u2019s party \u2014 but others are associated with blowout defeats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n None of these signs are looking great for President Biden right now. His approval rating is the second-lowest<\/a> of any president\u2019s at this point in their presidency since modern polling came into use. The economy is booming by some metrics, but inflation is at a 40-year high and eating into voters\u2019 spending power. The country is still in the midst of the pandemic, but Biden hasn\u2019t unified the country around his leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There\u2019s no one weird trick that can guarantee midterm success, or one theory to perfectly explain every midterm result. But there are several that, considered together, go a long way toward helping explain why this so often happens \u2014 and what November\u2019s midterms might herald for Biden.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n …<\/p>\n\n\n\n “The trend\u00a0predates World War II<\/a>, so it\u2019s not about recent developments. It happens in states (the governor\u2019s party\u00a0usually loses seats<\/a>\u00a0in off-year legislature elections), so it\u2019s not just about the presidency. It\u2019s\u00a0not just an American phenomenon<\/a>, either. \u201cIt also occurs internationally in systems where there is a chief executive election separate from a midterm,\u201d”<\/p>\n\n\n\n