{"id":7645,"date":"2022-04-13T16:24:43","date_gmt":"2022-04-13T16:24:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=7645"},"modified":"2022-04-13T16:24:43","modified_gmt":"2022-04-13T16:24:43","slug":"the-chinese-threat-no-one-is-talking-about-and-how-to-counter-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=7645","title":{"rendered":"The Chinese Threat No One Is Talking About \u2014 And How to Counter It"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n\n“a steady stream of official U.S. estimates suggests that within a decade, China will possess enough warships to dominate the Indian Ocean region if it chooses. The Office of Naval Intelligence estimated<\/a> China would build 67 new major surface combatants and 12 new nuclear-powered submarines by 2030. The Pentagon\u2019s most recent report<\/a> on China\u2019s military power raised those projections even further<\/a>. Given that China already has formidable capabilities for defending itself in the east \u2014 and the heightened range and survivability of these new ships<\/a> \u2014 it seems China plans to operate them far from its shores. The Pentagon also observes that China is developing the capabilities to conduct \u201coffensive operations\u201d deep in the Indian Ocean, presumably including naval blockades, bombardment of enemy targets, or even a combination assault by land and sea.”
…
“What exactly does China want in the Indian Ocean? In the near term, it wants to protect its Middle East oil supplies, the hundreds of thousands of Chinese migrant laborers working abroad and its overseas investments. Looking ahead, however, China has laid the groundwork to bring considerable military might to the Indian Ocean if it needs to.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With an unchecked fleet able to exercise control in the Indian Ocean \u2014 even if for legitimate purposes to protect trade and investments \u2014 China could intimidate states militarily and economically<\/a>, just as it has done in the South China Sea for years, and more recently with Bangladesh<\/a>, the Maldives<\/a> and Indonesia. It could engage in unsafe conduct close to ships and planes, harass commercial or naval vessels, and enter other countries\u2019 waters and airspace. Vulnerability to such coercion could compel smaller countries to side with China on issues like freedom of navigation and overflight, territorial disputes, trade negotiations, military agreements with the U.S. or its partners, human rights or relations with Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a military conflict, a Chinese Indian Ocean fleet would be even more threatening. It could disrupt trade flows<\/a> in the Indian Ocean for the U.S. or its allies or impede American military access. China could also attack U.S. or allied forces swinging from<\/a> the Mediterranean, or Middle East, or Diego Garcia, to the Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of the reason the Indian Ocean hasn\u2019t received as much attention as it should is that many U.S. defense experts assume<\/a> or hope they can rely on India<\/a> to automatically be a \u201ccounterweight\u201d to China in this region<\/a>. For over two decades, Washington has been enamored with the idea that India, at one point exceeding 8 percent economic growth<\/a> annually, would become a military powerhouse<\/a> that could \u201cfrustrate China\u2019s hegemonic ambitions<\/a>.\u201d The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy released in February counts on India to be \u201ca net security provider,\u201d just as previous administrations officially banked on<\/a> the Indian Navy taking a \u201cleading role in maintaining Indian Ocean security.\u201d Some former Trump administration officials even want to formalize a Japan-style alliance<\/a>.But India\u2019s ability to play this role is in serious doubt.”  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/magazine\/2022\/03\/16\/india-china-indian-ocean-00017520<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“a steady stream of official U.S. estimates suggests that within a decade, China will possess enough warships to dominate the Indian Ocean region if it chooses. The Office of Naval Intelligence estimated China would build 67 new major surface combatants and 12 new nuclear-powered submarines by 2030. The Pentagon\u2019s most recent report on China\u2019s military power raised those projections even further. Given that China already has formidable capabilities for defending itself in the east \u2014 and the heightened range and survivability of these new ships \u2014 it seems China plans to operate them far from its shores. The Pentagon also observes that China is developing the capabilities to conduct \u201coffensive operations\u201d deep in the Indian Ocean, presumably including naval blockades, bombardment of enemy targets, or even a combination assault by land and sea.”<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

“What exactly does China want in the Indian Ocean? In the near term, it wants to protect its Middle East oil supplies, the hundreds of thousands of Chinese migrant laborers working abroad and its overseas investments. Looking ahead, however, China has laid the groundwork to bring considerable military might to the Indian Ocean if it needs to.<\/p>\n

With an unchecked fleet able to exercise control in the Indian Ocean \u2014 even if for legitimate purposes to protect trade and investments \u2014 China could intimidate states militarily and economically, just as it has done in the South China Sea for years, and more recently with Bangladesh, the Maldives and Indonesia. It could engage in unsafe conduct close to ships and planes, harass commercial or naval vessels, and enter other countries\u2019 waters and airspace. Vulnerability to such coercion could compel smaller countries to side with China on issues like freedom of navigation and overflight, territorial disputes, trade negotiations, military agreements with the U.S. or its partners, human rights or relations with Taiwan.<\/p>\n

In a military conflict, a Chinese Indian Ocean fleet would be even more threatening. It could disrupt trade flows in the Indian Ocean for the U.S. or its allies or impede American military access. China could also attack U.S. or allied forces swinging from the Mediterranean, or Middle East, or Diego Garcia, to the Pacific.<\/p>\n

Part of the reason the Indian Ocean hasn\u2019t received as much attention as it should is that many U.S. defense experts assume or hope they can rely on India to automatically be a \u201ccounterweight\u201d to China in this region. For over two decades, Washington has been enamored with the idea that India, at one point exceeding 8 percent economic growth annually, would become a military powerhouse that could \u201cfrustrate China\u2019s hegemonic ambitions.\u201d The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy released in February counts on India to be \u201ca net security provider,\u201d just as previous administrations officially banked on the Indian Navy taking a \u201cleading role in maintaining Indian Ocean security.\u201d Some former Trump administration officials even want to formalize a Japan-style alliance.<\/p>\n

But India\u2019s ability to play this role is in serious doubt.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[89,272,355,1593,314,259,1056,619],"class_list":["post-7645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-china","tag-foreign-affairs","tag-foreign-policy","tag-indian-ocean","tag-international-relations","tag-military","tag-navy","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7645"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7645\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7646,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7645\/revisions\/7646"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}