{"id":9320,"date":"2022-11-16T20:40:35","date_gmt":"2022-11-16T20:40:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=9320"},"modified":"2022-11-16T20:40:35","modified_gmt":"2022-11-16T20:40:35","slug":"why-trump-is-favored-to-win-the-2024-republican-presidential-primary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=9320","title":{"rendered":"Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n\n“former President Donald Trump announced that he would seek a second nonconsecutive term as president. While it\u2019s too early to predict<\/a> Trump\u2019s chances of going all the way, the former president is the current favorite to win the Republican primary again. But nothing is assured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, Trump remains popular and influential among Republican voters. According to Civiqs<\/a>, 80 percent of registered Republican voters have a favorable view of the former president, and only 11 percent have an unfavorable view. Admittedly, he is a little less popular than on Election Day 2020 when 91 percent viewed him favorably. But the decline has been gradual.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Republican voters also demonstrated their loyalty to Trump \u2014 or at least his vision for the party \u2014 when they nominated 82 percent<\/a> of the nonincumbents he endorsed in contested Republican primaries for Senate, House and governor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Granted, that isn\u2019t as impressive as it seems. Several times, Trump endorsed candidates who were already well on their way<\/a> to winning<\/a>. And Trump\u2019s endorsees did fail to win certain highly watched contests, like the primary for Georgia governor. But just as often, Trump\u2019s endorsement seemed to give a meaningful polling boost to its recipient. For example, Ohio Senate candidate and author J.D. Vance went from trailing in the polls before Trump\u2019s endorsement to leading in almost every survey afterward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump also leads early polling of the Republican primary<\/a> by a substantial margin. In most national surveys<\/a>, he registers in the high 40s or low 50s, 20-30 points ahead of his closest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. (Though DeSantis is polling higher than he did earlier in the year.)”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Finally, Trump leads in polls of early primary states, albeit generally by smaller margins. A poll of Iowa<\/a> conducted by a pro-DeSantis group over the summer showed Trump leading DeSantis 38 percent to 17 percent. In August, a poll of New Hampshire<\/a> conducted by Saint Anselm College put Trump up 50 percent to 29 percent. And most recently, Susquehanna Polling & Research found Trump at 41 percent and DeSantis at 34 percent in Nevada<\/a> in late October.1<\/sup><\/a>“<\/p>\n\n\n\n

…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“we\u2019re still more than a year away from anyone casting their votes, so those numbers could change. But an analysis by my colleague Geoffrey Skelley in 2019 found that national primary polls in the first half of the year before the election are pretty predictive<\/a> of who will win the nomination. Historically, from 1972 to 2016, candidates with high name recognition who polled in the 40s and 50s nationally won the nomination more than 75 percent of the time.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary<\/a><\/blockquote>