{"id":9663,"date":"2023-01-01T16:15:04","date_gmt":"2023-01-01T16:15:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=9663"},"modified":"2023-01-01T16:15:04","modified_gmt":"2023-01-01T16:15:04","slug":"how-kyrsten-sinemas-decision-to-leave-the-democratic-party-will-change-the-senate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=9663","title":{"rendered":"How Kyrsten Sinema\u2019s decision to leave the Democratic Party will change the Senate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n\n“Sinema\u2019s decision reflects a tradition of Arizona politics, where registered independents rival the state\u2019s registered Republicans as the state\u2019s largest voting group. The state is split nearly evenly<\/a> into thirds among the two major parties and independents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on initial exit polls, the makeup of this year\u2019s electorate reflected some of this dynamic: Independents made up the largest group of voters in the Senate race, and they backed Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly by more than 15 points. Republicans, the next largest group, backed candidate Blake Masters by a smaller margin than they backed the 2020 election-denying gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sinema has said that her decision to change parties is meant to reflect this dynamic: \u201cI promised I would never bend to party pressure,\u201d she wrote in her op-ed. \u201cArizonans \u2014 including many registered as Democrats or Republicans \u2014 are eager for leaders who focus on common-sense solutions rather than party doctrine. \u2026 It\u2019s no wonder a growing number of Americans are registering as independents. In Arizona, that number often outpaces those registered with either national party.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arizona\u2019s partisan breakdown isn\u2019t expected to change dramatically before 2024, and Sinema\u2019s decision makes the state\u2019s upcoming Senate race wide-open. Sinema isn\u2019t announcing a reelection effort yet, only saying that she does not plan to run for president. But if she does run, her move could work to her advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She faced an uphill challenge by running as Democrat \u2014 she wasn\u2019t leading in any hypothetical polling conducted in 2021 or 2022 when matched up against<\/a> leading alternative Democratic candidates, like Rep. Gallego, Rep. Greg Stanton, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego, or Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Her favorability ratings remained low during the last year in both public and private Democratic polling from the Kelly campaign, according to a Democratic operative who was familiar with those results. Now, by unaffiliating herself with the state party, she could avoid what likely would have been a bruising primary contest that she would have lost.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.vox.com\/policy-and-politics\/23501599\/kyrsten-sinema-inevitable-democrat-arizona-2024<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Sinema\u2019s decision reflects a tradition of Arizona politics, where registered independents rival the state\u2019s registered Republicans as the state\u2019s largest voting group. The state is split nearly evenly into thirds among the two major parties and independents.
\nBased on initial exit polls, the makeup of this year\u2019s electorate reflected some of this dynamic: Independents made up the largest group of voters in the Senate race, and they backed Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly by more than 15 points. Republicans, the next largest group, backed candidate Blake Masters by a smaller margin than they backed the 2020 election-denying gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.<\/p>\n

Sinema has said that her decision to change parties is meant to reflect this dynamic: \u201cI promised I would never bend to party pressure,\u201d she wrote in her op-ed. \u201cArizonans \u2014 including many registered as Democrats or Republicans \u2014 are eager for leaders who focus on common-sense solutions rather than party doctrine. \u2026 It\u2019s no wonder a growing number of Americans are registering as independents. In Arizona, that number often outpaces those registered with either national party.\u201d<\/p>\n

Arizona\u2019s partisan breakdown isn\u2019t expected to change dramatically before 2024, and Sinema\u2019s decision makes the state\u2019s upcoming Senate race wide-open. Sinema isn\u2019t announcing a reelection effort yet, only saying that she does not plan to run for president. But if she does run, her move could work to her advantage.<\/p>\n

She faced an uphill challenge by running as Democrat \u2014 she wasn\u2019t leading in any hypothetical polling conducted in 2021 or 2022 when matched up against leading alternative Democratic candidates, like Rep. Gallego, Rep. Greg Stanton, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego, or Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Her favorability ratings remained low during the last year in both public and private Democratic polling from the Kelly campaign, according to a Democratic operative who was familiar with those results. Now, by unaffiliating herself with the state party, she could avoid what likely would have been a bruising primary contest that she would have lost.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[988,1403,1268,865],"class_list":["post-9663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-democratic-party","tag-kyrsten-sinema","tag-political-parties","tag-senate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9663"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9663\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9664,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9663\/revisions\/9664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}