{"id":9783,"date":"2023-01-17T16:20:54","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T16:20:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=9783"},"modified":"2023-01-17T16:20:54","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T16:20:54","slug":"what-i-got-wrong-in-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=9783","title":{"rendered":"What I Got Wrong In 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n\n“While it is<\/em> true that the president\u2019s party almost always has a poor midterm, there have been exceptions. And the 2022 midterms turned out to be one of these \u201casterisk elections<\/a>,\u201d thanks in no small part to the Supreme Court\u2019s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization to overturn the constitutional right to abortion. This year I should have been more prepared for the possibility that the ruling could throw a wrench into the election, especially after a draft of the decision was leaked in May<\/a>. And even after the decision, it took me a while to become convinced that voter anger over Dobbs<\/a> would prove durable enough to last until Election Day. It wasn\u2019t until the fall<\/a> that I revised my expectations<\/a> from a \u201cred wave<\/a>\u201d to a \u201cred ripple<\/a>.\u201d
 My biggest mistake here was not realizing just how common an \u201casterisk election\u201d actually is. I often quoted one key stat: that the president\u2019s party had gained House seats in only two of the previous 19 midterm elections. But there were four other midterms where the president\u2019s party lost fewer than 10 House seats \u2014 so what happened in 2022 isn\u2019t that<\/em> rare. I also neglected to remember that the president\u2019s party had lost Senate seats in only 13 of the last 19 midterms. In other words, midterms like 2022 happen about a third of the time \u2014 way too frequently to count them out.”
https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/2022-predictions-i-got-wrong\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“While it is true that the president\u2019s party almost always has a poor midterm, there have been exceptions. And the 2022 midterms turned out to be one of these \u201casterisk elections,\u201d thanks in no small part to the Supreme Court\u2019s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization to overturn the constitutional right to abortion. This year I should have been more prepared for the possibility that the ruling could throw a wrench into the election, especially after a draft of the decision was leaked in May. And even after the decision, it took me a while to become convinced that voter anger over Dobbs would prove durable enough to last until Election Day. It wasn\u2019t until the fall that I revised my expectations from a \u201cred wave\u201d to a \u201cred ripple.\u201d<\/p>\n

My biggest mistake here was not realizing just how common an \u201casterisk election\u201d actually is. I often quoted one key stat: that the president\u2019s party had gained House seats in only two of the previous 19 midterm elections. But there were four other midterms where the president\u2019s party lost fewer than 10 House seats \u2014 so what happened in 2022 isn\u2019t that rare. I also neglected to remember that the president\u2019s party had lost Senate seats in only 13 of the last 19 midterms. In other words, midterms like 2022 happen about a third of the time \u2014 way too frequently to count them out.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[372,198,509],"class_list":["post-9783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-election","tag-elections","tag-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9783"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9784,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9783\/revisions\/9784"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}