{"id":9952,"date":"2023-02-08T22:01:14","date_gmt":"2023-02-08T22:01:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=9952"},"modified":"2023-02-08T22:01:14","modified_gmt":"2023-02-08T22:01:14","slug":"republicans-didnt-get-less-popular-after-all-that-speaker-drama-they-were-already-unpopular","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/?p=9952","title":{"rendered":"Republicans Didn\u2019t Get Less Popular After All That Speaker Drama \u2014 They Were Already Unpopular"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\n\n&#8220;Two polls found that a plurality of Americans thought that the drama surrounding the speaker election hurt the GOP. According to a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.deseret.com\/2023\/1\/12\/23548571\/poll-mccarthy-gop-came-through-speaker-fight-largely-unscathed\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">HarrisX\/Deseret News poll<\/a>&nbsp;conducted right after McCarthy\u2019s election, 41 percent of registered voters felt that the Republican Party was weaker after the speaker election, and only 23 percent thought it was stronger. In addition, 43 percent of registered voters told HarrisX\/the Deseret News that the ordeal made them trust the Republican Party less. Meanwhile, 34 percent of respondents told&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/sites\/default\/files\/ct\/news\/documents\/2023-01\/USA%20Today%20Partisan%20Poll%20III%20Topline%201.15.2023.pdf\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ipsos<\/a>&nbsp;that the drama weakened the Republican Party, and only 19 percent said it strengthened the party.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In reality, these poll questions don\u2019t tell us that much. We\u2019ve&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/what-the-mlb-lockout-can-tell-us-about-political-fandom-and-sports-partisanship\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">written previously<\/a>&nbsp;about the dangers of pollsters asking whether a given event makes people more or less likely to vote for a candidate or party. Asking whether the speaker election made people trust the GOP less falls into the same trap. The question allows people to express dissatisfaction with the election without considering where their feelings&nbsp;<em>started<\/em>&nbsp;on the issue. (For example, quite a few of those people \u2014 i.e., Democrats \u2014 probably had little or no trust for the GOP to begin with.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And asking Americans to be pundits and assess whether the GOP is weaker in the wake of the speaker vote is less informative than just looking at the GOP\u2019s actual standing. Several polls have shown that the Republican Party\u2019s brand hasn\u2019t changed since the disharmony. It was damaged before the speaker vote, and it\u2019s still damaged after it&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-wordpress wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-fivethirtyeight\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"pIo9YtyRsz\"><a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/republicans-house-speaker-polls\/\">Republicans Didn\u2019t Get Less Popular After All That Speaker Drama \u2014 They Were Already Unpopular<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Republicans Didn\u2019t Get Less Popular After All That Speaker Drama \u2014 They Were Already Unpopular&#8221; &#8212; FiveThirtyEight\" src=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/republicans-house-speaker-polls\/embed\/#?secret=M5chpfZbN1#?secret=pIo9YtyRsz\" data-secret=\"pIo9YtyRsz\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Two polls found that a plurality of Americans thought that the drama surrounding the speaker election hurt the GOP. According to a HarrisX\/Deseret News poll conducted right after McCarthy\u2019s election, 41 percent of registered voters felt that the Republican Party was weaker after the speaker election, and only 23 percent thought it was stronger. In addition, 43 percent of registered voters told HarrisX\/the Deseret News that the ordeal made them trust the Republican Party less. Meanwhile, 34 percent of respondents told Ipsos that the drama weakened the Republican Party, and only 19 percent said it strengthened the party.<br \/>\nIn reality, these poll questions don\u2019t tell us that much. We\u2019ve written previously about the dangers of pollsters asking whether a given event makes people more or less likely to vote for a candidate or party. Asking whether the speaker election made people trust the GOP less falls into the same trap. The question allows people to express dissatisfaction with the election without considering where their feelings started on the issue. (For example, quite a few of those people \u2014 i.e., Democrats \u2014 probably had little or no trust for the GOP to begin with.)<\/p>\n<p>And asking Americans to be pundits and assess whether the GOP is weaker in the wake of the speaker vote is less informative than just looking at the GOP\u2019s actual standing. Several polls have shown that the Republican Party\u2019s brand hasn\u2019t changed since the disharmony. It was damaged before the speaker vote, and it\u2019s still damaged after it&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[542,372,509,968,506,1741],"class_list":["post-9952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-share","tag-congress","tag-election","tag-politics","tag-republican-party","tag-republicans","tag-speaker-of-the-house"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9952","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9952"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9952\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9953,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9952\/revisions\/9953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9952"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lonecandle.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}