Why humanity will shrink far sooner than we thought
Our current estimates on births may be too high, meaning the demographic crisis is worse than we even think!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeBsN_t84Q0
Tag: statistics
Even conservatives can’t get behind Trump’s Bureau of Labor Statistics pick
“President Trump’s nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics has drawn surprising opposition from conservative economists, and for good reason.
When Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the former commissioner, he baselessly denounced her for publishing “rigged” job numbers to make him look bad. Her replacement, whom Trump capitalized as “Highly Respected Economist, Dr. E.J. Antoni,” would supposedly “ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE.”
Don’t count on it.
Almost nobody bought Trump’s claim. Antoni has meager credentials and no relevant experience for leading an agency with over 2,000 employees, responsible for measuring all “labor market activity, working conditions, price changes and productivity in the U.S. economy.”
Antoni is just five years out of graduate school at Northern Illinois University. His only professional jobs have been with right-wing policy shops.
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Economists from multiple conservative think tanks have weighed in against Antoni’s appointment, citing his inexperience and incompetence.
The American Enterprise Institute’s Stan Veuger warned that Antoni’s work “has frequently included elementary errors or nonsensical choices that all bias his findings in the same partisan direction.” His colleague Derek Scissors was even more dismissive, saying Antoni “writes drivel for political reasons.”
David Herbert, of the American Institute for Economic Research, called for the Senate to reject Antoni’s nomination, citing “his inability to understand basic economics.”
Likewise, Daniel DiMartino of the Manhattan Institute called Antoni “unqualified for the labor market data collection and analysis role” when he doesn’t know what he’s “talking about.” Jessica Riedl, another Manhattan Institute fellow, described Antoni’s publications as “probably the most error-filled of any think tank economist.”
Even the Wall Street Journal editorial board, ordinarily supportive of Trump’s nominees, was skeptical, noting that Antoni’s “commentary at Heritage has been highly partisan,” while the BLS job “demands nonpartisan professionalism.””
https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/labor/5523873-trump-bls-nominee-opposed-economists/?tbref=hp
A Bad Jobs Report
“Though job growth was low, layoffs were also relatively low. That said, people who have been fired or laid off have struggled to get back on their feet: “The number of people with continued unemployment claims has been elevated since April,” reports The New York Times.”
https://reason.com/2025/09/05/a-bad-jobs-report/
DOJ Quietly Deletes Study After Charlie Kirk’s Death That Says Right-Wing Extremists Engage in ‘Far More’ Political Violence
“An archived version of the study is still available online, and states that “far-right extremists have committed far more ideologically motivated homicides” than the left”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/doj-quietly-deletes-study-charlie-005626328.html
The Largest Jobs Revision Ever — What It Means for the U.S. | Prof G Markets
One reason BLS statistic revisions are so large is because it is underfunded. Trump funding it even less isn’t going to help this.
Another problem is that businesses are not responding to surveys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcdANjLeny8
Firing BLS Director Over Weak Jobs Report Is ‘Banana Republic’ Behavior
“As with any bureaucracy, the agency is fair game for criticism. BLS has plenty of flaws. But we know how Trump and MAGA play the game: Any results that are good for them are the truth—and anything not to their liking is evidence of rigging or conspiracy. Their take on any news is the one that advances their interests.
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the feds need an independent body to analyze statistics. The New York Times quoted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: “Good data helps not just the Fed, it helps the government, but it also helps the private sector.” Trump has indicated he’d like to replace Powell—presumably with someone who will juice interest rates to help his political goals. Any intelligent person, though, can see why good policy flows from an accurate understanding of reality.
These are banana republic moves, backed by MAGA and the Banana Republican Party. Had any Democratic president tried to so directly politicize these independent agencies, Republicans would be screaming about the coming tyranny. Democrats aren’t immune to politicizing independent bodies—consider the troublesome plan to expand the U.S. Supreme Court—but they didn’t dare meddle in statistical counting.
Consider how budget matters are handled in Democratic-dominated California. The governor issues his budget and revenue/deficit predictions, which, of course, make the most optimistic projections. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) does its analysis, which typically is less sanguine. The governor might take issue with those results—but he doesn’t try to remove the head of the LAO and replace him with a political hack who issues only good news.
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We’re all used to this administration “defining deviancy down,” as we all lower our standards for acceptable presidential behavior (free jet from Qatar, anyone?). So I guess this will be just another deviant action that the Republican Party will eagerly defend.”
https://reason.com/2025/08/15/firing-bls-director-over-weak-jobs-report-is-banana-republic-behavior/
Jobs Data Disaster – The Real Reason it’s So Bad
The government sends out a survey to get employment data, but they don’t get responses in time for their initial reports, so those are usually off and have to be revised later.
The surveys are always incomplete, and a lot of statistical guesses have to be made.
The once a year reports are better; maybe they should only have the once a year reports?
The difficulty of measuring country-wide employment in a short period of time and methodological flaws are the causes of revisions, not political bias.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FWaWIbCuJE
Sam Harris Reveals Million Dollar Bet w/ Elon That Killed Their Friendship
Elon Musk thought Covid would remain under 100 cases in the United States, and was extremely confident about this belief. Disagreements over this ended his relationship with Sam Harris.
Elon would publicly insult Sam over misleading clips of Sam that misrepresented what Sam said. Sam would email Elon explaining the context, and Elon would tell Sam to fuck off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vzBTpIF_hI
DOGE is at DOL: Here’s why that matters for the US economy.
“The arrival of Elon Musk’s allies at the Labor Department has sparked fears that the quality of the agency’s reports on everything from inflation to jobs could suffer at the hands of inexperienced outsiders — with global consequences.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/12/elon-musk-doge-labor-department-data-00203655
U.S. economy wraps 2024 on solid footing with 2.3% growth rate
“The U.S. economy grew at a 2.3% annualized rate in the final three months of 2024, the Commerce Department said on Thursday — closing out a year of strong growth.”
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“The fourth-quarter growth figures are aslowdownfrom the 3.1% rate in the previous three-month period.”
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/30/us-economy-gdp-growth-q4-2024