Lone Candle
Champion of Truth
Thailand built its huge tourism industry on US military bases and US military R and R during the Vietnam war. Young US military men spent far more than other tourists. Thailand was then able to turn this war-time tourism industry into a permanent industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jS7aV568IA
When countries like China focus on heavily investing, initially it works well because they invest in productive things and this grows their economy. However, later, they run out of that many productive things to invest in, in which case they are robbing their citizens of consumption and outcompeting other countries’ manufacturing, but not gaining much actual new productive benefits. This leads to debt.
Bilateral tariffs like Trump is doing don’t work. The U.S. has a huge deficit because it consumes more than it exports. A global tariff could work by making goods more expensive and incentivizing people to consume, now relatively cheaper, domestic products. Bilateral tariffs just mean Americans will import cheap goods from country C and D instead of the heavily tariffed countries A and B.
Getting foreigners to invest in the U.S. hurts the U.S.. The U.S. has plenty of capital to invest and doesn’t need more. Additional investment means driving up the dollar, making U.S. goods less competitive internationally, and hurting U.S. exports.
China has debt to support investment. The U.S. has debt to support consumption. The system is out of whack and needs adjustment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoSNdzfydRU
The Laffer curve confuses economic incentives with social reality. Most people can’t just stop working or even work much less, because tax rates go up. Even those who can stop working, often keep working in the face of higher tax rates. Some countries with high tax rates have high growth. The marginal tax rate whereby most people will work less is very high, like 70%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrO9VpQCXZU
“”The most persuasive case against protectionism is not the standard one that undergraduate students are taught in their introductions to international economics, which goes like this: Tariffs distort the allocation of resources and impose a ‘deadweight burden,'” Mokyr wrote in the June 1996 issue of Reason. “The standard argument is certainly correct, but somehow it has failed to persuade many people since it was first enunciated by Adam Smith and David Ricardo.”
The better argument, instead, is that “protectionism and insularism impede innovation, depriving our children of the comfort and security that progress and economic growth bring,” he said. “Free trade and international competition not only lead to a better allocation of resources; they ensure that countries do not lull themselves into the technological lethargy that is the archenemy of economic growth.””
https://reason.com/2025/10/13/this-years-nobel-winners-for-economics-explained-how-innovation-makes-us-rich/?nab=1
“Hungary was once wealthier than Poland—it had a per capita GDP of $21,400 in 1990, when it also emerged from under the thumb of the Soviet Union—but it now lags considerably and seems to be falling farther behind. A share of the blame goes to Hungarian President Viktor Orbán, who embarked on an economic and ideological project during the 2010s that caught the attention of conservatives and nationalists across the globe, particularly in the United States. Along with a crackdown on immigration, Orbán is a ferocious economic interventionist. In 2021, for example, he responded with aggressive price controls on food, fuel, and other essentials to combat inflation.
That shift toward statism brought predictable shortages and, as Balcerowicz warned, stagnation. Hungary’s economy sank into a recession after posting negative growth in the last two quarters of 2024.
Hungary’s brash strongman is skilled at drawing attention to himself. But Poland’s stability and growth ought to show the way forward—not just for central Europe, but for any place that throws off the shackles of authoritarian ideology and the central planning that comes with it.”
https://reason.com/2025/09/18/poland-climbs-hungary-slips/
“Independence has underpinned financial markets’ trust in central banks for half a century and has provided much of the basis for the U.S.-led international economic order.
Across the Atlantic, Cook’s counterparts at the European Central Bank are alarmed that Trump’s moves could not only set a dangerous precedent — but also have a tangible impact on their own policymaking, which is inexorably influenced by the course charted by the Fed.
“Attacking the independence of the Fed, the Trump administration inflicts a serious damage to the American economy,” said Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras in emailed comments to POLITICO. “The implications will come sooner rather than later.”
When independence is threatened, monetary policy “becomes dysfunctional, it starts doing things that it shouldn’t do,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told Fox News in an interview Sunday before Trump’s move to oust Cook, but after he had already signaled he wanted her out.
“The next step is disruption. It is instability, if not worse. So I think that this should not be debated,” Lagarde added.
…
Others expressed a similar wariness, with one Governing Council member, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the sensitive subject, fretting that a breach of the Fed’s independence could have “enormous repercussions on the financial world,” while also stressing the basic principle of due legal process that’s not been afforded to Cook.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-attack-federal-reserve-lisa-cook-alarm-europe-economic-stability/
“”The OECD now forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.9% this year from 3.3% in 2024,” notes Bloomberg. “It expects the rate of expansion in the US will tumble further, to 1.6% from 2.8%—an outlook that is significantly lower than its projection in March.””
https://reason.com/2025/06/03/the-tariff-downturn/
U.S. and global economic growth predicted to slow due to really dumb economic policy out of Washington. Tariffs and unpredictability are bad for the economy.
Big tech companies are getting around antitrust by “investing” in startups, making their founder their employee, and pretending that this is an investment rather than an acquisition. This stifles competition.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cSLIx2X_A0
“Texas, the only state that tracks immigrant crime, compares convictions per 100,000 Americans. Score: illegal immigrants, 782; legal immigrants, 535; native-born Americans, 1,422. It’s the opposite of what most of us have heard.”
…
“even illegal immigrants are a net gain. Not just because they harvest our food, do construction, etc., but also because Social Security and Medicare taxes are deducted from their paychecks. That’s money they never get back because they’re not legal.”
https://reason.com/2025/03/19/immigrants-are-a-boon-to-the-u-s-economy/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/another-american-ally-just-issued-an-economic-warning-because-of-the-trade-war/ar-AA1DYW80?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=02be7e06916845d1b25fd667f10f3f71&ei=11