“Trump has reportedly homed in on $50 a barrel as the price he’d like to see US oil prices trend toward, alleviating energy costs for US households.
The problem for the US oil industry? That math doesn’t check out.
In the Permian Basin, the largest collection of oil plays in the continental US and the crown jewel of American energy, breakeven prices hover between $62 and $64, according to data from the Dallas Federal Reserve.
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As a wave of global oversupply gluts the oil market, the Energy Information Administration expects that Brent crude (BZ=F) — the international benchmark — will fall toward an average of $55 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026 and remain at that depressed level throughout the year.
WTI prices would almost certainly move in tandem, pegging its value around $51.50.”