Seizures, Ukrainian Attacks & Russia’s Gambit
The Tanker War & Shadow Fleet – U.S. Ship Seizures, Ukrainian Attacks & Russia’s Gambit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ux3b00jo1iQ
Tag: oil
There’s an Actual Reason You Can’t Recycle Plastic
Fracking creates an ingredient for plastic, and fracking companies can’t release that into the air because it is bad for the environment, so plastic companies get the ingredient to plastic super cheap from fracking companies, making new plastic cheaper than recycled plastic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=325HdQe4WM4
Trump wants oil prices to hit $50 a barrel. The math doesn’t work for the US oil industry.
“Trump has reportedly homed in on $50 a barrel as the price he’d like to see US oil prices trend toward, alleviating energy costs for US households.
The problem for the US oil industry? That math doesn’t check out.
In the Permian Basin, the largest collection of oil plays in the continental US and the crown jewel of American energy, breakeven prices hover between $62 and $64, according to data from the Dallas Federal Reserve.
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As a wave of global oversupply gluts the oil market, the Energy Information Administration expects that Brent crude (BZ=F) — the international benchmark — will fall toward an average of $55 per barrel within the first quarter of 2026 and remain at that depressed level throughout the year.
WTI prices would almost certainly move in tandem, pegging its value around $51.50.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-wants-oil-prices-to-hit-50-a-barrel-the-math-doesnt-work-for-the-us-oil-industry-182639810.html
Trump signs executive order to safeguard Venezuelan oil revenue
“The executive order, signed Friday and made public on Saturday, declared a national emergency to ensure Venezuelan oil revenue held in U.S. Treasury accounts won’t be targeted by lawsuits or creditor claims.
The order says failing to safeguard the revenue, held in Foreign Government Deposit Funds, “will substantially interfere with our critical efforts to ensure economic and political stability in Venezuela.”
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Several companies have long-standing claims against Venezuela, Reuters reported, noting Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips left Venezuela nearly two decades ago after their assets were nationalized and are both owed billions of dollars.
Trump gathered about a dozen executives from energy companies at the White House on Friday amid his administration’s push to get U.S. oil companies to invest in Venezuela. Trump told the executives that they would be dealing directly with the U.S., rather than the Venezuelan government.
ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told Trump that his company was still owed $12 billion and that the U.S. government has the chance to restore what’s been lost, according to Reuters.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-signs-executive-order-safeguard-141009417.html
Trump seeks $100bn for Venezuela oil, but Exxon boss says country ‘uninvestable’
“Exxon’s chief executive Darren Woods said: “We have had our assets seized there twice and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we’ve historically seen and what is currently the state.”
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Trump signed an executive order that seeks to prohibit US courts from seizing revenue that the US collects from Venezuelan oil and holds in American Treasury accounts.
Any court attempt to access those funds would interfere with US foreign relations and international goodwill, the executive order states.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-venezuela-oil-meeting-starts-220946813.html
The capture of Maduro was NOT about oil: it’s a TRAP against CHINA
While Venezuela has a lot of oil, they don’t produce that much, and it will take a decade to really ramp up their production. The US doesn’t need Venezuelan oil and it’s probably not worth the risk of destabilizing the country just for oil. Cutting off China and Cuba from Venezuelan oil may have more value, but, China can get oil from elsewhere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twalxUt4O4w
Why U.S Navy SEALs Just hit Russia’s Shadow Fleet
Why U.S Navy SEALs Just hit Russia’s Shadow Fleet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dopbvNi538A
Phil Gunson & Juan S. Gonzalez: What Comes Next in Venezuela | Foreign Affairs Interview
It’s not clear how long Venezuela will remain stable. There is a careful political balance to maintain stability. It’s also not clear how long the powers in Venezuela will put up with the US domineering over them. The US can destroy shit, but the Venezuelans can release chaos within Venezuela. Gangs in Venezuela are very powerful. The Venezuelan military doesn’t fully control the country.
Oil companies don’t want to invest in a country that requires huge investment and may not be stable, so their investment will likely need to be subsidized by the taxpayer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bj-5HRefix8
‘People would attempt to flee’: Concern grows over possible Cuba collapse
“With the Trump administration exerting control over Venezuela, Cuba has lost one of its principal economic patrons and oil suppliers. The island, already in economic dire straits, will face even deeper financial problems unless it finds another government willing to provide it with the oil it once received from Venezuela — the import of which until a week ago it exchanged for money and personnel. Cuba has dodged collapse for decades but Maduro’s capture poses perhaps the greatest threat to the regime since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
And a failed state could lead to an exodus of Cubans looking for refuge in the United States.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/07/following-venezuela-raid-fears-grow-of-economic-collapse-in-cuba-00714716
Q&A: John Bolton on Trump’s Venezuelan oil grab
“I think we’re in a situation where we have not gotten regime change. The same group, minus only Maduro, is still in power, and it’s not at all clear just how much intimidating force that we’ve really got.
There are pressure points. I think they’re in trouble on oil exports and so on. But what are China and Russia and Iran and Cuba going to do in the face of that, just sit back and watch it happen? So, I’m not at all sure what day-after planning there was, because I’m not sure we’re finished with the day yet.
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Trump talked about getting the oil, and I think there would have been a legitimate argument that U.S. oil companies kind of get first dibs to come in — not that we would take it, but that we would get some preference in terms of the ability to present proposals — and we should, at a minimum, get some of that production and maybe a lot of it.
But that’s not how Trump looks at it. He just wants to take control of it, and that’s how he’s going to pay for the military force and sort of everything else he’s been promising.
I just think that’s the kind of limited vision he has. He focuses on what he thinks he understands, the tangible economic asset.
The idea that American oil companies are just lining up to go invest in Venezuela is just flatly wrong, and the idea that somehow there will be a quick transformation of the incredibly dilapidated Venezuelan oil infrastructure that’s going to suddenly turn the production back online is fantasy, too.
It’s going to take tens of billions of dollars over a sustained period of time before they get this thing back up and running the way it used to be.
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I think we do have full authority under international law to go after Maduro because what we would consider the legitimate government today is the opposition, with Maduro having stolen both the 2018 and 2024 presidential elections.
When you basically go back to dealing with the old regime and undercut the legitimate government, you’re giving Russia and China the precedent that they don’t have.
There’s nobody in Ukraine calling for Russian intervention, and the government of Taiwan certainly isn’t calling for Chinese intervention.
So the Venezuelan case as it stands now is quite different from those, but that’s not the way Trump’s behaving, and it’s the mistakes he’s making today that lend greater credence to a Russian or a Chinese effort to say, well, we’re just doing what the U.S. did in Venezuela.
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what if they decide they’re not going to do what we want six months from now? Where are we going to be at that point? And I don’t think Trump has addressed that.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/07/john-bolton-trump-actions-against-venezuela-00713284