Lone Candle
Champion of Truth
The US allowing Iran to ship its oil while Iran stops most others, except those it gives permission, is a sign of weakness from the US. Trump isn’t willing to face the pain of much higher oil prices. If Trump isn’t willing to take such pain, then why would Iran agree to any significant demands?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnHfKyNcDHY
Ships are turning toward Iranian islands, checking in with Iran, and then moving on if they are one of the few allowed ships. Iran controls the Strait.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqr3s6uTays
Militarily opening the Strait of Hormuz will be incredibly hard. Iran only has to get through once, the US needs to stop every weapon. It will require the great risk of putting a lot of forces close to Iran.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRrfFhRxNi4
Ships can get insurance to go through the Strait of Hormuz, but most ships won’t go through because they don’t think it is safe enough.
Iranian ships are still going through and the US is letting them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SELRtaciaI
Protecting shipping would require pulling assets away from offense. Destroying 95% of Iranian weaponry does not matter if they can still threaten ships. Iranian oil ships are still going through the Strait. The US isn’t stopping Iranian oil ships.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5S2ek2QcHQ
The Iran war has been great for Russia so far. It’s oil is worth more thanks to the war. Some sanctions on its oil have been lifted by Trump as he tries to lower gas prices. The many munitions used by the US in the war mean there are fewer for the Europeans to buy for Ukraine. It allows Russia and China to go around the world saying how evil the US is, unjustly attacking a global south country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LvPObzkF-8
The mission of keeping the Strait of Hormuz safe from Iranian attacks on civilian ships is a burdensome and dangerous mission. The US needs to focus on protecting its carriers until the Iranian threat is further diminished.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIynxSI7ZQg
Iran is predictably limiting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as a result of Trump’s attack on Iran, sending oil prices higher. Removing the Jones Act won’t move the needle while the war drives oil prices higher.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zenHFm60xKM
Middle Eastern oil producers are producing less oil because they can’t ship as much due to the war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8MqBuaD5Xw
W Bush focusing on fighting insurgencies while China was rising, led to the US not having the military industrial base and stockpiles of certain munitions. If the US uses too many munitions fighting Iran, it will be greatly weakened for a fight against China. This also weakens US deterrence against China.
However, if Iran is in too much chaos to pump oil, or if it is friendly enough with the US that in the event of a China-US war it would not sell oil to China, that would be a huge advantage in starving China of oil in the event of a war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wupwKXGd54g