Lone Candle
Champion of Truth
The US has been putting heavy financial pressure on Iraq to crack down on Iraqi Iranian proxies who try to stop oil from flowing through pipelines through Iraq, bypassing Hormuz.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYARu_qigL0
The Iranian regime has a very high pain threshold, much higher than the US. They are willing to take a lot of destruction without giving in. Assassinating Ali Khamenei was a huge mistake. He was evil in a lot of ways, but he did care about his people and appeared to actually be against nuclear weapons. The new leaders care less about the people and are willing to let Iranians suffer tremendously.
The US didn’t seem to have a plan for the Strait of Hormuz. There were plans on the shelf, but no real reworked plan with preparation.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz by force would require ground troops, but Trump is against that.
Trump indicated verbally multiple times that he has a low pain threshold with regards to the economy. Why would Iran give in when Trump has indicated that he can’t take the pain?
The US didn’t fix its munitions shortage before choosing to attack.
The reporting indicates that Trump was for this war and most of the rest of his administration was against it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eGQBxy4W0A
Long-term military containment with ships escorting oil tankers through the Strait may be the best among bad options. Future congresses and presidents would need to maintain it though, and it would be expensive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT6h3-2HZ6k
The same workers who can build gas and oil facilities can build wind and solar facilities, so Texas had a workforce ready to build renewables.
Texas’s electricity system allows the cheapest producers to win the bid, so as long as someone built the wind or solar, they could beat out the pre-existing facilities.
Texas built a lot of transmission lines.
Texas had a lot of natural gas power plants, and these plants can ramp up fast, so they can turn on at night after the sun goes down.
Texas also had both good sun and wind to harness in the first place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hled_zkh44
The US has the highest inflation of the G7.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVpb3IAZs6U
We still don’t know who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. There are theories out there, but they are not confirmed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf_1Y2UYPXQ
“Prices rose 3.8% in April compared to a year earlier, marking an increase from a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.3% in the prior month. Annual inflation jumped to its highest level in three years, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed.
As recently as February, inflation stood at 2.4%, clocking in just a tick above the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2%.
The jump in prices last month owed in large part to a sharp rise in costs for products impacted by a global oil shock. Gasoline prices were 5% higher in April than March, the BLS report said. Airline fares climbed 2.8% from the previous month.”
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/inflation-report-show-latest-prices-090527890.html
All realistic deals on the table that Iran might agree to look an awful lot like the deal Obama got without the costs and risks of war. Trump is reluctant to agree to such a deal because it will essentially be an admission that Obama and Kerry were right all along–this was the best deal possible and better than no deal or war.
Reporting was that Trump could have gotten such a deal before the war began, but Trump rejected it because he thought he was a great deal-maker who could do better than Obama. He was wrong, and we got war because of it.
Germany is starting to massively increase its military power. Europe needs German power. Once Germany has this power, some Germans will want to use it in ways that are not in America’s interest. We need Germany to pull its own weight, but we need to keep that weight on our side, and to do this, requires keeping America’s commitment to Europe strong and clear. German power is much less dangerous when embedded in a NATO structure that includes the United States.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZM2x485OJs
Throughout history, even before it became a global superpower, the United States fought to defend the freedom of the seas. If Iran forces the US to accept an extortionary toll on the Strait of Hormuz, it will be a great blow to the US-led order that allows trade across international waters without heavy fees enforced by deadly power.
Control of the Strait gives Iran control over the price of oil. If they want the price higher, they let fewer ships through.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2o4IUPNYAK0
Blockades can work, but they take time, and often take a toll on civilian populaces.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HSLkn-P0fE