All realistic deals on the table that Iran might agree to look an awful lot like the deal Obama got without the costs and risks of war. Trump is reluctant to agree to such a deal because it will essentially be an admission that Obama and Kerry were right all along–this was the best deal possible and better than no deal or war.
Reporting was that Trump could have gotten such a deal before the war began, but Trump rejected it because he thought he was a great deal-maker who could do better than Obama. He was wrong, and we got war because of it.
Germany is starting to massively increase its military power. Europe needs German power. Once Germany has this power, some Germans will want to use it in ways that are not in America’s interest. We need Germany to pull its own weight, but we need to keep that weight on our side, and to do this, requires keeping America’s commitment to Europe strong and clear. German power is much less dangerous when embedded in a NATO structure that includes the United States.
Throughout history, even before it became a global superpower, the United States fought to defend the freedom of the seas. If Iran forces the US to accept an extortionary toll on the Strait of Hormuz, it will be a great blow to the US-led order that allows trade across international waters without heavy fees enforced by deadly power.
Control of the Strait gives Iran control over the price of oil. If they want the price higher, they let fewer ships through.
Thanks to the US having weaker relationships with our allies due to Trump’s bullying, and Trump’s, so far, failed war in Iran, and Trump’s failure to contain Russia or China…US military spending is going to be much higher. Trump’s attempts at saving money by getting allies to pay more has backfired.
More empty oil tankers are coming to the US due to the Iran war, but the US can’t produce, refine, and load oil fast enough to fill them. At least not in a timely manner.
“the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t actually reopened yet — and there are serious doubts about what “reopening” means exactly (not to mention how long it might last).
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Assuming the Strait of Hormuz does fully reopen sometime soon — a big assumption given all the diplomatic challenges ahead — experts say prices at the pump still won’t plunge to their prewar level.
“There’s an old expression: Gas prices go up like a rocket and come down like a feather,” one independent oil analyst told CNN.
In the case of Iran, five factors will continue to pad the price of gas even after the end of the war.
First, oil production has largely ground to a halt across the Persian Gulf over the past six weeks — partly because the region’s oil infrastructure suffered damage and partly because countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and Saudi Arabia (the world’s largest oil exporter) ran out of storage space. An estimated 7.5 million barrels of production per day were shut down in March, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Global supply will continue to suffer while these countries play catch up — a process that could take years, experts say.
Second, exporting oil from the Gulf will get more expensive if Iran charges a toll, and that added cost — an estimated $1 per barrel, according to CNN — is likely to be passed on to consumers.
Third, insurance for ships that cross the Strait of Hormuz will likely cost more as well — another expense that could make gas and other petroleum products pricier for Americans.
Fourth, “traders will want some premium to compensate for [the] risk” that the “ceasefire breaks,” according to Zandi. That’s why oil futures are still above prewar levels through the end of 2026.
Finally, retail gas station owners set their prices based on the wholesale price of gas. When oil gets more expensive, that price goes up — but gas stations tend to accept a smaller profit margin on each gallon they sell in order to stay competitive. Then, when the cost of oil starts to fall, they typically try to even things out by hanging onto higher gas prices for as long as possible.”
For Iran to win, all they have to do is survive and maintain an ability to commit terror attacks. Thus far, the US has failed to end Iran’s ability to hit Israel, hit gulf states, hit US bases, and stop shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
“About six months before the first U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the Trump administration gutted the Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR), an 80-person team within the State Department tasked with leading international energy diplomacy. The cuts were part of the then Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative to reduce the federal workforce, with the goal of slashing the federal budget.
More than a month into the conflict—with President Donald Trump indicating he will redouble attacks on Iran in the coming weeks—former ENR officials are warning DOGE eliminated key roles that would have helped the administration navigate and mitigate the energy chaos of the conflict and its impact on global oil markets, as well as foresee potential consequences of ongoing actions.
Fortune spoke with two former ENR officials—who wished to remain anonymous out of fear of retribution from the department—who are sounding the alarm on the insights and knowledge the federal government has lost as a result of the cuts, especially during a period of widespread oil and energy disruptions.
“It’s shocking how poorly prepared the administration is,” one former employee told Fortune. “You took away the people with the expertise and contacts who would be insanely useful in this context.””