According to interviews with people who have been in the room with Trump as president, Trump isn’t playing 4D chess or putting on a front. Trump actually has nonsensical economic and foreign policy views. He thinks trade deficits are what determine whether he should be friendly or mean to a foreign country. He believes the US would be strong if not for the huge impact of political correctness holding us back. Trump has limited moral values in foreign policy and just wants to make what he views as good one-on-one deals. Trump seems to be a legitimate Iran hawk. Trump formed his views during his formative years based on what was happening at the time and based on his gut, and he just sticks to that, even if his gut intuitions are nonsense.
When it came to the war with Iran, Trump was convinced that the regime would fall. He was less convinced by Israel’s persuasion and more by Iran’s lack of response after the 12-day war and Israel’s success in that war.
The CIA told Trump that Iranian regime change was not likely, but Trump believed in his gut that it was.
Risks, like the Strait of Hormuz, were presented to Trump, but super softly. Trump was advised by a small group of scared yes men. Only Vance seriously tried to dissuade him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmaoPUpf5I8
“The Trump administration has acknowledged in court documents that it canceled $7.6 billion in grants for hundreds of clean energy projects “based solely on the political identity of the grant recipient’s state” — in this case, 16 states that voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-administration-admits-grants-clean-000651685.html
Trump policy has made the paperwork requirement of welfare much higher, leading to people who qualify to not get the benefits. It’s more difficult to be poor under Trump policies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQqwOpzMBNU
Long-term military containment with ships escorting oil tankers through the Strait may be the best among bad options. Future congresses and presidents would need to maintain it though, and it would be expensive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT6h3-2HZ6k
The government is not a business. Trying to run it as a business doesn’t work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nj0xRpWIqE4
Trump is damaging America’s future wealth, health, and security by deeply damaging American science. Science research needs broad investments in things that may not be productive for decades to come. That often requires an investor not worried about quarterly returns. The US used to drain scientists from the world. Now, our scientists are being picked by other countries, weakening the United States.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYiUI6y1nKg
Construction companies crushed unions, and then hired immigrants instead. Now, the construction industry is dependent on illegal immigrants. Without them, the US won’t build the houses the country needs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9w2BQ5gLVQ
Google let an employee walk who left because Google didn’t value his AI chatbot technology. Google later had to hire him back and make him a billionaire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_s6f5P8Ggw
Iran expert who used to advise the White House thinks Iran was willing to do a deal that was better than Obama’s deal before the 12 day war, but not anymore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qq9nYWH24w