Michael Pettis: Bilateral Tariffs Will Fail To Restructure Global Trade Imbalances

When countries like China focus on heavily investing, initially it works well because they invest in productive things and this grows their economy. However, later, they run out of that many productive things to invest in, in which case they are robbing their citizens of consumption and outcompeting other countries’ manufacturing, but not gaining much actual new productive benefits. This leads to debt.

Bilateral tariffs like Trump is doing don’t work. The U.S. has a huge deficit because it consumes more than it exports. A global tariff could work by making goods more expensive and incentivizing people to consume, now relatively cheaper, domestic products. Bilateral tariffs just mean Americans will import cheap goods from country C and D instead of the heavily tariffed countries A and B.

Getting foreigners to invest in the U.S. hurts the U.S.. The U.S. has plenty of capital to invest and doesn’t need more. Additional investment means driving up the dollar, making U.S. goods less competitive internationally, and hurting U.S. exports.

China has debt to support investment. The U.S. has debt to support consumption. The system is out of whack and needs adjustment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoSNdzfydRU

Trump Slammed Biden’s $52 Billion CHIPS Act. Then He Used It To Buy a Federal Stake in Intel.

“In theory, the CHIPS Act provided a mechanism for the federal government to retract the grant and get all or part of its money back should Intel fail to meet its obligations. It’s not clear whether the federal government would have exercised its option to take the money back, but it was an option—until Trump stepped in.
As the company flailed, Trump met with its CEO, Lip-Bu Tan. Trump first called for him to resign. Then in August, the Trump administration announced that the federal government would just take partial ownership of Intel. Essentially, the U.S. government would purchase a roughly 10 percent stake in the chipmaker, partially nationalizing the company. And funds from CHIPS would be used to do it.

Trump bragged about the deal, saying he planned to “do more of them.” The company’s stock price rose on the news, suggesting that investors liked it. But that’s probably because it was a good deal for the company, at taxpayer expense.

According to public financial filings, the federal government would disburse the remaining funds, about $6 billion, while clearing any obligations for the company to actually complete work on new domestic semiconductor fabs.

In exchange, the federal government would gain partial ownership—as well as all the financial risks stockholders usually have when they invest in companies. Those risks will now be borne by taxpayers.

Trump gave Intel a federal bailout, removing the company’s public obligations and accountability while loading more financial risk onto the public.”

https://reason.com/2025/11/29/chipping-away-at-chips/

Knitters Need Free Trade: Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Crafting Supplies Harder To Get

“From knitting needles to garment fabric to bottles of paint, American crafters work with many materials produced abroad. That has left them particularly vulnerable
to Trump’s trade war. Imports from Europe currently face tariffs of 15 percent, and while sky-high tariffs on China are currently subject to a 90-day pause, they still stand at 57.6 percent, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Worse still, Trump has done away with the de minimis exemption, which allowed goods valued at under $800 to enter the U.S. tariff-free.

Exclusively stocking U.S.-produced materials isn’t an option for most craft stores. “Tariffs impact American-made yarns as well,” pointed out Fibre Space, a yarn store in Alexandria, Virginia. That’s because “American-made goods still rely on materials made in other countries.” Yarn “is an agricultural product,” observes Chadwell, “so certain crops and certain livestock produce the best fiber in very specific climates that aren’t necessarily” found in the United States. Meanwhile, “needles, notions, doodads, [and] bags…can only be produced at much higher prices” here.

Tariffs prevent all sorts of voluntary transactions that shape lives and culture in big—and often inconspicuous—ways. That means shops that won’t be started, gifts that won’t be made by hand, and hobbies that won’t be taken up. And more immediately, tariffs are punishing business owners who want to help Americans fill their lives with more creativity.”

https://reason.com/2025/11/30/knitters-need-free-trade/

If We Tax Rich People… They Will Just Leave!

In places where wealthy people want to be and are not just there for tax advantages, higher taxes often don’t make many wealthy people leave. Keeping high-skilled professionals is more important to a city than keeping super wealthy people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DXZMXZCY0I

A New Lawsuit Says New York’s Rent Law Is Forcing Landlords To Keep Apartments Empty

“On one of their units, the Lulgjurajs are able to charge monthly market-rate rents of $2,600. For an identical unit that became vacant in 2019 after a long-term tenancy, they can only charge $710 per month.

The costs of legally mandated repairs to that unit—which would include replacing the kitchen and bathroom, performing lead abatement, and leveling the floors—exceed $100,000. Yet the 2019 law permits them to reclaim less than half of these costs, let alone raise rents to something approximating market rates.

Without the ability to recover the costs of legally mandated repairs, the unit currently sits empty.

In addition to alleging a taking, the property owners’ lawsuit also argues that the wildly different rents allowed on units, dependent solely on how old the unit is and when it became vacant, is arbitrary and irrational.”

https://reason.com/2025/11/13/a-new-lawsuit-says-new-yorks-rent-law-is-forcing-landlords-to-keep-apartments-empty/

The Medicaid Program That Saved Money, Turned People’s Health Around — and Got Killed

“After a few months in the program, Smith was no longer diabetic, and she has now been sober for two and a half years.
Her story highlights the success of the Healthy Opportunities Pilot, which launched in North Carolina in March 2022. The program had benefits beyond health and quality-of-life improvements; researchers at UNC-Chapel Hill found the program saved $1,020 a year per recipient on health care costs, and the 38,000 participants had “significantly lower” emergency room visits than their peers.

The program was unique, funded with a five-year, $650 million federal grant approved by the first Donald Trump administration. The idea was to use fresh food, safe housing and transportation — social and economic factors that researchers say determine 80 percent of a person’s health — to improve the lives of the sickest, most expensive patients.

But the Healthy Opportunities Pilot shows the limits of such food-based interventions in public policy. These programs often require longer-term investments, chafing against the cost-cutting instincts that characterize Trump’s second term and legislatures in most red states — the policy level at which most MAHA ideas are put into practice.

In the case of HOP, the Joe Biden administration approved a Medicaid waiver last December to continue the program in North Carolina, which Gov. Josh Stein, a Democrat, hoped to expand throughout the state over the next two years. But in June, the Republican-led state legislature declined to fund it. State lawmakers argue the program costs more than it saves — a claim that state policy experts dispute because of the way Republican lawmakers were calculating the numbers. These experts say the long-term savings potential was given short shrift.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/11/08/healthy-opportunities-pilot-medicaid-north-carolina-maha-00626465

‘He’s Actually Weakening the Economy’: Why Trump’s Strategy May Fail

“Trump is carving out his own brand of capitalism — launching extraordinary federal interventions in the economy through ownership stakes in private companies alongside sweeping tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation. But the way he’s using these tools isn’t really guided by a discernable economic strategy

Trump’s policies, taken together, are more like “an idiosyncratic hodgepodge.””

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/11/12/trump-economy-strategy-industrial-policy-interview-00646509