“In 2015, when the Assad regime was about to collapse, the opposition force had the upper hand on their way to Damascus. And then, who came to help Assad? The Russians with an air force, against which the rebels didn’t have any air defense. And Hezbollah came to help Assad on the ground. Iranians delivered money, weapons and some Shia militia. What happened this time? All three players were absent. The Russians were in Ukraine. Hezbollah was destroyed by Israel. And the Iranians were deterred by Israel. So the Syrian army was left alone.”
…
” I can see four scenarios. The first one I call the “Libyan scenario.” After the fall of Qaddafi, everybody fought with everybody to have dominance. In the end, Libya was stabilized by two main entities. But only after many, many years of internal war with the support from outside forces like Turkey, Russia and Egypt. The second scenario is some kind of “former Yugoslavia model.” Each one of the sects will have its own autonomy, and they will be smart enough not to fight each other. The third scenario is a jihadist state ranging from an extreme ISIS type to a Taliban in a moderate sense. The fourth scenario is a political Islam kind of country under the model of Turkey and Qatar. A political Islam, not jihadist Islam.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/11/what-the-future-of-syria-might-look-like-00193792