Lone Candle
Champion of Truth
When it comes to all things politics and religious, but especially Israel-Palestine…people are prone to black and white thinking, as well as horrible evidence cherry picking, as well as blowing up evidence to be bigger than it is, and even citing evidence
Israel and the settlers make life in the West Bank difficult. Random attacks, difficulty getting anywhere, disrespect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdxgsCrEDY8
The Iranian regime has a very high pain threshold, much higher than the US. They are willing to take a lot of destruction without giving in. Assassinating Ali Khamenei was a huge mistake. He was evil in a lot of ways, but he did care about his people and appeared to actually be against nuclear weapons. The new leaders care less about the people and are willing to let Iranians suffer tremendously.
The US didn’t seem to have a plan for the Strait of Hormuz. There were plans on the shelf, but no real reworked plan with preparation.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz by force would require ground troops, but Trump is against that.
Trump indicated verbally multiple times that he has a low pain threshold with regards to the economy. Why would Iran give in when Trump has indicated that he can’t take the pain?
The US didn’t fix its munitions shortage before choosing to attack.
The reporting indicates that Trump was for this war and most of the rest of his administration was against it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eGQBxy4W0A
Israel is intensifying its West Bank settlement project, taking land that was supposed to be Palestinian.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Zrphez0-nA
Nice bit of Israeli history, although…Zionism ended in 1948. Once Zionism was achieved and the state of Israel was formed, we just have the policies of Israel and the ideologies of its citizens, not something special called Zionism. It doesn’t make sense to have a word that means the ideology to form a particular state for a particular people when that state has already been formed. Other countries don’t have a special term that means people think that that country should continue to exist, neither should Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKELq9Jdc0k
Within the conservative group in Iran’s leadership, there is a divide between neverending war until Israel is destroyed, as well as no talks with the US, and a side that believes in the theocracy but are more pragmatic and willing to make peace.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l6Zb83XMjk
According to interviews with people who have been in the room with Trump as president, Trump isn’t playing 4D chess or putting on a front. Trump actually has nonsensical economic and foreign policy views. He thinks trade deficits are what determine whether he should be friendly or mean to a foreign country. He believes the US would be strong if not for the huge impact of political correctness holding us back. Trump has limited moral values in foreign policy and just wants to make what he views as good one-on-one deals. Trump seems to be a legitimate Iran hawk. Trump formed his views during his formative years based on what was happening at the time and based on his gut, and he just sticks to that, even if his gut intuitions are nonsense.
When it came to the war with Iran, Trump was convinced that the regime would fall. He was less convinced by Israel’s persuasion and more by Iran’s lack of response after the 12-day war and Israel’s success in that war.
The CIA told Trump that Iranian regime change was not likely, but Trump believed in his gut that it was.
Risks, like the Strait of Hormuz, were presented to Trump, but super softly. Trump was advised by a small group of scared yes men. Only Vance seriously tried to dissuade him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmaoPUpf5I8
Long-term military containment with ships escorting oil tankers through the Strait may be the best among bad options. Future congresses and presidents would need to maintain it though, and it would be expensive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT6h3-2HZ6k
Iran expert who used to advise the White House thinks Iran was willing to do a deal that was better than Obama’s deal before the 12 day war, but not anymore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qq9nYWH24w
Apartheid in Palestine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsVDPzJzc98