Top economist: everybody is wrong on Trump’s trade war EXCEPT @StephenMiran
The Dollar as the reserve currency is good for the financial industry but bad for manufacturing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsccKgeTMcE
Tag: trade war
The Trade War Is Eroding America’s Soft Power
“The direct cost of President Donald Trump’s trade war will be borne by American consumers and businesses—of that, there should no longer be much debate.
But trade wars also come with indirect costs and unforeseen consequences. Some of those show up on balance sheets in the form of lower profits, losses in the stock market, or stagnating wages. Some are best counted under the Christmas tree, where higher prices might mean fewer toys (as the president now admits) and other goodies that make life a little more joyful, as tariffs squeeze wallets and reduce discretionary income.
Others are trickier to sum up, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist.
“The administration’s trade policy sends a message to the world: America is an unreliable ally that sees you only as a source of wealth; and if you don’t have wealth, you’ll pay for it,””
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“”The United States’ role as a linchpin of this system has enhanced its position as the pre-eminent global power,” writes Murray. “Yet the new administration’s curious tariff policy threatens all of this, for no discernible benefit.””
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“American soft power rides on the back of the global trading system. American investment and purchasing power help build factories and lift people out of extreme poverty. For the countries that benefit from all that, American interests are first and foremost. Take away the benefits of trade, and the rest fades too, warns Murray.
Higher tariffs and reduced global trade “kills US soft power with these nations and leaves a geopolitical vacuum into which US rivals like China will expand,” he writes. “High tariff rates on south east Asian countries, for example, will exacerbate the drift of those countries towards the Chinese sphere of influence that has been happening in the wake of trade uncertainty since the first Trump administration.””
https://reason.com/2025/05/26/the-trade-war-is-eroding-americas-soft-power/
China thought it had a truce with the US. Then Trump dropped two bombshells
“A one-two punch from the United States risks shattering the already fragile trade war truce between Washington and Beijing, with Chinese tech companies and students both dealt shock blows by the Trump administration”
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“The first hit came in a Financial Times report on Wednesday that said moves by US President Donald Trump had effectively cut off some American companies from selling software used to design semiconductors to China.”
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“But it was the second blow from the White House that landed right in the living rooms of Chinese families, with US State Secretary Marco Rubio saying the US will “aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students” – especially those in critical fields or with connections to the Chinese Communist Party.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-thought-had-truce-us-075046801.html
In states, tariffs aren’t yet producing the surge of foreign investment Trump is promising
“economic development officials and lawmakers from several states say that the uncertainty fueled by Trump’s on-again, off-again trade wars is keeping many foreign businesses from pouring money into the U.S. market right now. And it signals the uneven impact the tariffs are having on reshoring American manufacturing — Trump’s stated goal for raising rates to the highest levels in a century.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/18/trump-foreign-investments-00355202
Trump Is Wrong. Cheap Goods Are Awesome.
“Donald Trump doesn’t think Americans deserve stuff. The right number of pencils for a family? Five. The right number of dolls for a little girl? Two, maybe three. His comments in recent interviews bear a striking similarity to those of left-wing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.), who in 2015 famously bemoaned that consumers have too many deodorant options.
How did Trump—who campaigned on a promise of reducing inflation—become so eager to have Americans pay more for everyday commodities? While Trump may have made overtures to reducing prices, he’s long supported the kinds of economic interventions most likely to lead to inflation. And if you believe that protectionism is the path to prosperity for everyday Americans, your definition of prosperity starts to change pretty quickly.”
https://reason.com/2025/05/09/trump-is-wrong-cheap-goods-are-awesome/
No Divorce From China
“Some people, including a former Trump administration official speaking to Politico, speculate that China’s threatened rare earth cut-off was more damaging to automakers and the defense industry than anyone’s letting on, and that China actually can log this one as a W; “China’s export restrictions to the United States worked. It created enough pain to compel the U.S. government to plead with the Chinese government to reverse course,” the official told Politico.”
https://reason.com/2025/05/13/no-divorce-from-china/
Trump’s ‘Deal’ With China Leaves American Consumers and Exporters Facing Higher Tariffs Than Before
“the deal is a tidy illustration of how President Donald Trump has conducted his global trade war. With China, Trump hiked tariffs to astronomical levels while promising those taxes (which are paid by Americans) would unleash prosperity and create jobs. Then, the White House celebrated the agreement that reduced those tariffs as “the art of the deal.” They are literally doing the meme.
But the “deal” means that imports from China will be subjected to significantly higher tariffs than when Trump took office. Those tariffs will continue to be a serious economic burden for American businesses and consumers, and the threat of even higher tariffs remains—because the “deal” only pauses those tariffs for 90 days, and because Trump’s mercurial nature means no one can really be sure what is coming next.”
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“the remaining 30 percent tariff, which is stacked on top of preexisting tariffs from Trump’s first term, “will still make for an expensive back to school and holiday season for most Americans,” Lamar said in a statement. “If freight rates spike due to the tariff-induced shipping disruptions—which will take months to unwind—we could see costs and prices creep up even further.””
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“both America and China are still worse off than they were a few months ago. Trump has used constitutionally dubious economic powers to raise and then lower tariffs, creating huge costs and even greater uncertainty.
Rather than praising the president for backing down from an insane position, as the White House believes Americans should do, the proper response to Trump’s latest tariff maneuvers is the same as it has always been: Congress must take away his tariff powers.”
https://reason.com/2025/05/14/trumps-deal-with-china-leaves-american-consumers-and-exporters-facing-higher-tariffs-than-before/
US and China slash tariffs as trade war cools
“Donald Trump’s team cuts tariffs to 30 percent, while China slashes its levies to 10 percent. Now they have 90 days to do a deal.”
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“The de-escalation does not affect tariffs ranging up to 25 percent that Trump imposed on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods during his first term, leaving a wide range of goods with effective tariff rates of either 37.5 percent or 55 percent.”
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“It also does not roll back the 25 percent “sectoral” tariffs that Trump has imposed on autos, steel and aluminum, U.S. officials said. Some other tariff increases that President Joe Biden imposed, such as on electric vehicles, also are not affected.”
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“In a separate interview on CNBC, Bessent said the two sides may use the “Phase 1” trade deal that Trump negotiated during his first term as the “starting point” for negotiations. That pact called on China to buy an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods in 2020 and 2021, but Beijing fell well short of the goal.”
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“The remaining 30 percent tariff on Chinese goods from Trump’s second term reflects a 10 percent “reciprocal” baseline tariff that Trump imposed on all countries on April 2 and a 20 percent tariff that he imposed earlier this year to pressure China to do more to stop the flow of precursor chemicals that are used to make fentanyl.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-china-cut-tariffs-dramatically-donald-trump-trade-war/
Senate Republicans Voted Overwhelmingly To Continue Trump’s Trade War
“As a legal matter, President Donald Trump’s trade war rests on the claim that imports to the United States constitute an “unusual and extraordinary” threat requiring urgent executive action.
That’s an absurd argument, of course. The fact that Americans choose to buy or sell goods across international borders is not an emergency—it’s not even a minor worry—and certainly should not justify a massive expansion of executive power.
But Trump is going to do whatever he wants until someone stops him. On Wednesday, the Senate had a chance to do that. Instead, Republicans voted overwhelmingly to keep the “emergency” going, and thus to keep the trade war going too.
The Senate voted 49–49 on Wednesday evening to block Sen. Rand Paul’s (R–Ky.) resolution that sought to end the emergency declaration Trump signed on April 2 to impose his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs on nearly all imports to the United States.”
https://reason.com/2025/05/01/senate-republicans-voted-overwhelmingly-to-continue-trumps-trade-war/
Americans Doubt Trump’s Trade War Will Benefit Them
“”Trivium Packaging, a manufacturer of steel and aluminum containers…has shelved any expansion plans in the US for now, and the only hiring happening at its five US plants is to fill in staff losses due to attrition” because of the increased cost of the imported metal on which it relies, according to an April 17 Bloomberg report. Trivium was just one of the companies profiled in the article that “are putting hiring and expansion plans on hold while they come up with short-term plans to cope with the tariffs.”
Consumers are also changing their behavior in response to the trade war. Americans initially flocked to buy cars to beat anticipated price hikes. Purchases slowed as the expected price increases materialized, spurring the Trump administration this week to carve out some tariff relief for automakers.
But the same factors driving concerns about prices and availability regarding cars affect every other industry. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book report on economic conditions, “uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive” and “non-auto consumer spending was lower overall.”
Additionally, “several Districts reported that firms were taking a wait-and-see approach to employment, pausing or slowing hiring until there is more clarity on economic conditions” and “there were scattered reports of firms preparing for layoffs.”
Importantly, added the Beige Book analysis, “firms reported adding tariff surcharges or shortening pricing horizons to account for uncertain trade policy. Most businesses expected to pass through additional costs to customers.”
Basically, businesses and consumers alike are slowing spending and taking a wait-and-see attitude as they anticipate higher prices and economic disruption from the Trump administration’s protectionist policies. Americans expect the tariffs to be painful and they’re not happy about it.”
https://reason.com/2025/04/30/americans-doubt-trumps-trade-war-will-benefit-them/