“Previous efforts by Trump to get China to purchase more US goods have fallen short, raising questions about whether the latest pledges will be fulfilled. China failed to meet its commitments under an agreement Trump brokered in 2020 to buy an extra $200 billion in US agricultural, energy and manufactured products over a two-year period. The Covid-19 pandemic complicated that effort but critics said the targets were unrealistic.
China has recently turned to cheaper Brazilian soybeans after meeting the initial purchasing volume from the US agreed to in last year’s trade truce between Washington and Beijing.
While the fresh discloser will likely be welcomed by farmers, who were seeking more clarity from the latest summit, the amount may not be large enough to satisfy growers looking to turn around tough economic conditions.
Farmers have been struggling for years with relatively low crop prices and high costs. Pressures have been compounded by geopolitical tensions including Trump’s tariffs, and most recently by a surge in fertilizer costs linked to the conflict in Iran.”
Trump’s tariffs haven’t much limited goods coming from China to the US because China just ships them through third-party countries. The administration talked about cracking down on this, but haven’t really done it.
The US is in its weakest position compared to China. The US’s global trade war makes it less able to threaten China with a coalition of countries working together to counter it economically, and the US’s trade war with China revealed America’s severe weaknesses, which is why the US keeps backing down when the bilateral trade war reaches extremes. China was starting to understand and respond to a more coalitional strategy when that got blown up with a change of president.
The uncertainty of Trump’s tariffs have hurt small businesses and people who buy from them. If people can’t be sure how much something will cost, sometimes they just hold off on that economic activity.
The Chinese Communist Party refuses to buy other countries’ agricultural goods when those countries do things China doesn’t like. You offend the emperor, your farmers pay the price.
“From January through September, the most recent month for which U.S. Census Bureau trade data are available, the U.S. imported $1 trillion more in goods than it exported. This is a $118 billion jump compared to the goods trade deficit that the U.S. ran from January to September 2024. (Likewise, the overall trade deficit, which includes services, increased by $113 billion.)
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Recently published data from China’s General Administration of Customs show the Chinese goods trade surplus has increased since Trump took office. From January to September, China exported $875 billion more goods than it imported—a $185 billion jump vs. the same time period in 2024.
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Fortunately for consumers, these macroeconomic statistics are meaningless. You run a trade deficit with your grocery store, I run a trade deficit with McDonald’s, good little boys and girls run a trade deficit with Santa Claus, and we’re all better off for it. As as the economists Daniel Klein and Donald Boudreaux have put it, a trade deficit is equivalent to running a surplus on current stuff.
Likewise, as countries get richer, their labor markets transition from agriculture to industry and then to the service sector. Declining manufacturing employment as a share of overall employment is a sign that Americans are richer, not poorer, than our ancestors.
Trump’s targeted metrics are meaningless as proxies of prosperity. But the fact that his protectionist policies are failing to achieve their stated goals shows just how flawed they—and their justifications—always were.”
Trump’s deal with China has made things less bad than they were before the meeting, but they are still way worse than they were before Trump engaged in a trade war with China.
“Board game makers have been hit particularly hard by Trump’s tariffs, which have raised the cost of importing just about everything. Cephalofair is based in California, but like many other businesses in the industry, Johnson’s company relies on contractors in China and Vietnam to make the tokens, pawns, cards, and other physical elements of its games.
Manufacturing all those parts in the U.S. is not possible if game companies want their products to be competitively priced. With high tariffs in place, the costs compound quickly. Nathan McNair, the co-owner of Pandasaurus Games, broke down the math in a post on his company’s website. The added cost of the tariffs makes every step more complicated, from design to sales, and can even change what games a company chooses to make in the first place. “This has not just squeezed our margin; this has substantially increased our risk,” he concluded.
Trump’s tariffs have already stung Cephalofair in several ways.
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for businesses like Johnson’s, which can’t afford to risk the possibility of being hit with a massive tariff bill just because a shipment arrives at the wrong time.
Instead, those businesses will do what Johnson has done: Delay orders, slow production, and hope more stability emerges.”
China’s stranglehold on the supply of rare earths is damaging America’s ability to build military equipment and commercial cars. So far, Trump’s trade war on China is costly with little to no reward.