Trump had a ‘test case’ for trade negotiations with Japan—the failure to reach a deal now has analysts wondering if any will be signed

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-had-test-case-trade-105010697.html

Trump and Xi are locked in a standoff over direct trade negotiations

“He’s insisting on one-on-one talks with China’s leader, Xi Jinping — and this has stifled other diplomatic efforts to halt the worsening trade war between the two global powers.

The president won’t authorize White House delegates to engage with Chinese officials in Beijing about a detente, according to two former senior State Department officials and an industry official, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive ongoing discussions. The Senate has yet to confirm an ambassador to China; Trump has not appointed anyone else to lead talks with Beijing; and the White House isn’t reaching out to the Chinese embassy to begin discussions.

The absence of any substantial outreach has frozen meaningful communications between the two countries and threatened the likelihood of a near-term solution.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/trump-xi-china-trade-negotiations-00299645

Trump Looks Willing to Write Off an Entire Continent

“If an African government wants strong relations with Washington, including future development assistance, it must pay up in other ways — ranging from giving access to minerals to accepting deportees, Trump backers told me.”

“Trump and his team are fast-tracking efforts to achieve a goal that other U.S. presidents, including his four immediate Democratic and Republican predecessors, articulated to varying degrees — to shift the nature of the U.S. relationship with Africa. Each saw some progress, but none was willing to slash aid so deeply and suddenly.
The overwhelming sense among African officials is that they need to pony up what they can to effectively buy Trump’s love — the transactionalism for which he’s well known.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is offering access to critical minerals in exchange for U.S. help battling rebel forces; Massad Boulos, the father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany, was named recently to a role looking into such potential deals in the DRC and other African countries. And Somalia has offered the U.S. operational control over certain ports.

Angola will likely keep U.S. backing for the Lobito Corridor, a rail project that can help the U.S. access minerals. Togo, which is touting its track record in quietly mediating some African conflicts, could also see continued U.S. support, according to a former U.S. official familiar with African diplomatic circles. (A Togo official did not respond to questions about the mediation pitch.)

Some African nations will have an easier time staying on the U.S. radar simply because of their political sway on the continent (hey there, Kenya and Ethiopia), importance to energy markets (Nigeria) or other one-off reasons. Some are more financially and politically able to absorb the shock of losing U.S. aid than others. But some will have little to offer for Washington’s benefit, and they may choose to side with U.S. adversaries on the global stage — whether at the United Nations or in a war.

At least one, South Africa, is likely to be in the cold for a long time under Trump. The president’s team is infuriated by South Africa’s foreign policy choices, especially its diplomatic attacks on Israel, and accuses South Africa’s government of persecuting white Afrikaners. Trump has recently kicked out South Africa’s ambassador in Washington and set up a refugee program for white Afrikaners. South African officials insist Trump is misrepresenting them, especially on the Afrikaner issue.”

“Africans are already dying because of the U.S. aid cuts, and there’s been an outcry, mainly among Democrats, over the scaling down of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief — aka PEPFAR, the George W. Bush-era health initiative that has funded HIV/AIDS treatments on the African continent.

Still, people in Trump’s orbit are not moved by such anecdotes or data, seeing them as parts of tired arguments that have prevented a needed, radical change in U.S. ties with Africa. One person pointed out that the “E” in PEPFAR stands for “emergency.” Yet the program is now more than two decades old.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/17/trump-us-africa-relationship-column-00293046

Trump’s Dramatic Crossroads Between Protectionism and Dynamism

“At the end of the day, protectionism is rooted in fear and pessimism: fear that we’ll be outcompeted, and pessimism about the idea that a growing, dynamic economy can make us all better off. Libertarians are fond of making just such claims—so fond that Cass coined a term to mock us for it. Instead of tussling over the size of different constituencies’ relative shares of the fixed economic pie, the libertarian view is that our goal should be to grow the pie so everyone’s share is bigger. Cass calls this “economic piety,” and he rejects it. For him, the goal is not to grow the economy; it’s to direct the economy for the benefit of deserving constituencies such as blue-collar workers.

This is pure zero-sum thinking. It cements in place a mindset where one group’s gains necessarily come at some other group’s expense. To libertarians, technological innovation is a boon because it makes the whole economy more productive and everyone richer in the long run. But some people usually are hurt in the short run—think of the proverbial buggy-whip salesmen when automobiles come along. Protectionists are inclined to be suspicious of the tech sector and sympathetic toward policies that would tamp down economic dynamism in the name of protecting the would-be losers. The result, inevitably, is stagnation.”

https://reason.com/2025/03/01/trumps-dramatic-crossroads/

Even on Pause, Trump’s Trade War Runs Up a Big Price Tag

“If you’re keeping track—and economists are making their best efforts—President Donald Trump’s trade war with the entire planet is running up quite a price tag. Even with a 90-day pause on some tariffs (except for China), the imposition or even just the threat of import taxes on goods from around the world and the inevitable retaliation by other countries is expected to take a bite out of the economy and people’s prosperity. Figuring out how much of a bite it will take is a trick, but there’s little doubt that it will be painful.”

https://reason.com/2025/04/14/even-on-pause-trumps-trade-war-runs-up-a-big-price-tag/

Tariff Uncertainty Is Stalling the Economy

“The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s monthly survey of manufacturers, published earlier this week, reported sharp drops in what it calls “forward-looking indicators”—that is, what businesses expect the next six months to look like. The manufacturers in the survey expect to see fewer orders, longer delivery times, declining inventories, and lower levels of employment. About the only lines in the survey that are pointed upward are the expectations about prices.”

https://reason.com/2025/04/16/tariff-uncertainty-is-stalling-the-economy/

The DOLLAR plunges 10% and the global financial ORDER is ALREADY changing | ‪@visualeconomiken‬

“Trump is achieving what neither 9/11, nor the 2008 crisis, nor Covid could achieve. He’s damaging the power and value of the dollar.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LD_E4bMAiEg

Paul Blustein on the Rise, Dominance, and Current Challenges to King Dollar

The independence of the Fed is key to protecting the dollar, the economy, and price stability. People can trust in the dollar because the Fed will do what needs to be done to control inflation, even if it is painful.

Big things Trump’s economic team wants to do would require great international deals, but those deals are worthless if no one trusts the United States or its president. Trump is so erratic, that no one trusts him. He made the NAFTA 2.0 agreement with Mexico and Canada during his first term, then during his second called it junk and tried to break it. He threatens to take territory from allies and threatens to renege on NATO promises. Countries won’t make the sacrifices of a big Trump-pushed-for-deal when they can’t trust Trump to keep his promises.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmyZQ-I0jok

Fed Chair Powell sounds alarm on tariffs, sending stocks lower

“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariffs policy to cause higher inflation and slower economic growth, complicating potential central bank efforts to ease the fallout.”

“”Markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty and that means volatility,” Powell said on Wednesday. Still, he added, the volatility reflected the significance of the policy changes, rather than abnormal behavior in the markets.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-chair-powell-sounds-alarm-on-tariffs-sending-stocks-lower/ar-AA1D3nX5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=a623618c76614cedb4ce655c834e89c8&ei=10