Lone Candle
Champion of Truth
The F-35’s Class A flight mishap rate at this point in its history is quite good compared to other aircraft at that point in their history!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLuxM5lg8Jo
The Trump administration keeps claiming how well they have degraded Iranian capabilities, but US bases keep getting hit. Iran isn’t going to surrender due to air strikes. The best way to win the war is a full land invasion, with the massive costs that that would entail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgn9dL9T_cI
The Iranian regime has a very high pain threshold, much higher than the US. They are willing to take a lot of destruction without giving in. Assassinating Ali Khamenei was a huge mistake. He was evil in a lot of ways, but he did care about his people and appeared to actually be against nuclear weapons. The new leaders care less about the people and are willing to let Iranians suffer tremendously.
The US didn’t seem to have a plan for the Strait of Hormuz. There were plans on the shelf, but no real reworked plan with preparation.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz by force would require ground troops, but Trump is against that.
Trump indicated verbally multiple times that he has a low pain threshold with regards to the economy. Why would Iran give in when Trump has indicated that he can’t take the pain?
The US didn’t fix its munitions shortage before choosing to attack.
The reporting indicates that Trump was for this war and most of the rest of his administration was against it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eGQBxy4W0A
The US military needs to improve its urban warfare and subterranean warfare capabilities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAfqD0Oaa48
Greece foreign policy history
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClDAMnloqXE
Within the conservative group in Iran’s leadership, there is a divide between neverending war until Israel is destroyed, as well as no talks with the US, and a side that believes in the theocracy but are more pragmatic and willing to make peace.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l6Zb83XMjk
According to interviews with people who have been in the room with Trump as president, Trump isn’t playing 4D chess or putting on a front. Trump actually has nonsensical economic and foreign policy views. He thinks trade deficits are what determine whether he should be friendly or mean to a foreign country. He believes the US would be strong if not for the huge impact of political correctness holding us back. Trump has limited moral values in foreign policy and just wants to make what he views as good one-on-one deals. Trump seems to be a legitimate Iran hawk. Trump formed his views during his formative years based on what was happening at the time and based on his gut, and he just sticks to that, even if his gut intuitions are nonsense.
When it came to the war with Iran, Trump was convinced that the regime would fall. He was less convinced by Israel’s persuasion and more by Iran’s lack of response after the 12-day war and Israel’s success in that war.
The CIA told Trump that Iranian regime change was not likely, but Trump believed in his gut that it was.
Risks, like the Strait of Hormuz, were presented to Trump, but super softly. Trump was advised by a small group of scared yes men. Only Vance seriously tried to dissuade him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmaoPUpf5I8
Long-term military containment with ships escorting oil tankers through the Strait may be the best among bad options. Future congresses and presidents would need to maintain it though, and it would be expensive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT6h3-2HZ6k
Iran expert who used to advise the White House thinks Iran was willing to do a deal that was better than Obama’s deal before the 12 day war, but not anymore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qq9nYWH24w
Russia and China are building out their military reach and facilities in the Arctic. They are close to Alaska, and the US is behind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFCS2HwInU8