Lone Candle
Champion of Truth
The current Iran deal is an extension of the ceasefire, not a peace deal. The original ceasefire was supposed to have Hormuz open. We don’t know the outcome of the war because the war is not yet over. We don’t know how the negotiations during this extended ceasefire will go. Neither Trump nor Iran want to give in on key issues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bg2o0kTgqd8
Thanks to the US having weaker relationships with our allies due to Trump’s bullying, and Trump’s, so far, failed war in Iran, and Trump’s failure to contain Russia or China…US military spending is going to be much higher. Trump’s attempts at saving money by getting allies to pay more has backfired.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTuS_cA6lus
“When Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in January 2025, on the last day of the Biden administration, President Joe Biden demanded credit. “This is the exact framework of the deal I proposed back in May. Exact,” he said. Of course, that raises the question—if the deal was on the table earlier, why didn’t Biden secure it then?
That ceasefire fell apart after only two months. Seven bloody months later, the Trump administration has finally brokered a new one. President Donald Trump, like Biden before him, wants the credit. “BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!” he declared in his announcement of the ceasefire, waxing biblical. (Trump also, bizarrely, tried to credit his tariff policy for the truce.) But like Biden before him, Trump deserves scrutiny for the violence that dragged on when a deal was already on the table.”
https://reason.com/2025/10/09/what-changed-over-the-past-seven-months-of-war-in-the-middle-east/?nab=1
“If Israel wanted to commit a genocide they could, but they don’t. … If Hamas could commit a genocide, they would.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7LvMcYR_r4
Seems like Trump announced a ceasefire before many Israeli and Iranian government officials knew about the talks or agreement. There was a period between the announcement of a ceasefire and the time it went into effect when Israel and Iran struck each other while they still could. The ceasefire appears to have been broken, but may be holding now.
Claims that the Iranian nuclear program was obliterated sound like silly propagandistic lies by the Trump administration. The nuclear program was greatly damaged, but not obliterated, and Iran can rebuild. Depending on how fast Iran can rebuild, this may have ultimately been a futile attack that only makes Iran more determined to get a nuclear weapon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCTS8h7hjZw
Conservative Supreme Court allows Trump to deport immigrants to third countries without due process.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yA-UzsY0JC4
“The United States said Russia had agreed to an energy and infrastructure ceasefire. After Moscow and Kyiv agree to stop hitting each other’s power plants and electric grids, negotiators would move on to a potential halt in fighting on the Black Sea − and then to a full ceasefire and peace agreement in the 3-year-old Ukraine war, a White House statement said.
Trump said on social media the talk ended “with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine.”
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“Ukraine backers immediately slammed the scaled-back agreement as one that would primarily benefit Russia.
The agreement would keep Ukraine from striking Russia’s oil refineries”
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“Putin was likely to pull back from attacks on energy infrastructure in warmer weather anyway, said Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the conservative Hudson Institute.
“Recognizing the need to offer something to stay in President Trump’s good graces, he delivered only the bare minimum,” said Coffey, who was senior adviser Britain’s defense ministry.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-putin-call-russia-agrees-175627523.html
“After more than three years of war, Ukraine has agreed to a U.S. proposal for an immediate ceasefire. The 30-day truce will come into effect if Russia signs up to the same terms, according to a joint statement from the Ukrainian and American governments.”
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“Trump’s team say they will now take the plan for a 30-day ceasefire to Moscow. “The ball is now in their court,” said Rubio. Russia has been delighted by Trump’s attitude so far, and the ceasefire does not impose any pre-conditions on the Kremlin, as far as is known, other than a pause in the fighting.
Under the outline ceasefire plan, the pause in the fighting would allow humanitarian steps, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of detained civilians “and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children,” the joint statement said.”
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“After taking the radical step of cutting off the supply of military kit and intelligence to Kyiv, the U.S. has now agreed to resume sharing its secret information. It will also restart “security assistance.””
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“The terms of the proposal are for a temporary truce that can be extended if both sides agree. Once fighting is paused, negotiations will begin immediately on the terms of a permanent peace. Both the U.S. and Ukraine have promised to name their negotiating teams as soon as possible.”
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“Ahead of the talks, Rubio warned Kyiv that it would need to make concessions, including on territory. But during the eight hours of discussions in Jeddah on Tuesday, the topic of ceding territory did not even come up, according to a Ukrainian official. The point is certain to be brought up, however, if substantive negotiations begin on a permanent settlement.”
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“The U.S. president has made clear that he is not inclined to guarantee “very much” by way of Ukraine’s future security, seeing this as a job for Europe, not America. Nothing in Tuesday’s joint statement suggests that has changed.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-ceasefire-plan-ukraine-jeddah-saudi-arabia-russia-fighting/
Israel blew a lot of shit up, but didn’t seem to make concrete gains in Lebanon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm_LP1zGbrk
“Even before this most recent war between Israel and Hamas, the very tiny, very rich Gulf state had carved out a bit of a reputation as a diplomatic broker, especially in hostage negotiations. This has been a deliberate gambit on Qatar’s part, which has cultivated and managed pragmatic ties with the region’s main players — becoming a kind of middle man between parties that otherwise do not get along. It’s a key US ally, hosting an American military base critical to US operations in places like Syria and Iraq. Qatar also has ties to Islamist groups, including Hamas, whose political arm has an office in Doha.
This has given Qatar leverage — and, most importantly, access. The United States and Israel do not negotiate directly with Hamas. That has made the Qataris an indispensable go-between. “You have to talk to Hamas to get anything done,” said F. Gregory Gause, professor at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M. “The Qataris are there to help you out — and they’re there to remind you that they’re helping you out.”
Qatar’s role in this conflict extends beyond this week’s deal. In late October, Qatar helped negotiate the release of a couple hostages held by Hamas, and it may be helping to tamp down a wider regional conflict, given its good relations with Iran and open channels with the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. Qatar played a role in mediating the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas, and has supported Gaza, including financing salaries for Hamas civil servants through the sale of fuel to the group — with the okay of Israel, in part because Israel saw it as a stabilizing measure.
Qatar’s diplomacy isn’t limited to the realm of Israel-Hamas, either. Qatar served as an intermediary between the US and the Taliban before the two ultimately negotiated a peace deal directly, in Doha. Qatar’s open lines with the Taliban helped facilitate evacuations from Afghanistan after Kabul’s fall in 2021, and even after. And Qatar has increasingly become known for its skill in hostage negotiations, even outside the region. It recently helped broker a deal to get Russia to return four Ukrainian kids to their families.
“It wants to be influential, diplomatically, and it does understand that, obviously, it’s not a regional superpower that can dictate things,” said Bessma Momani, a political science professor at the University of Waterloo. Yet maintaining these delicate ties — and working those connections — is a very good way for Qatar to advance its interests, and its security. That approach comes with some risks, but, at least right now, they don’t outweigh the upsides for Qatar.
Qatar finds “a way to be helpful and resourceful in specific, niche areas that can have outsized influence,” Momani said. “That’s their strategy.””
https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/11/22/23972238/israel-hamas-deal-qatar-broker