US bases in Iraq are getting hit by FPV drones. At least a radar and helicopter have been destroyed. The US does not seem prepared for this advancement in warfare. If the US sends ground troops to Iran, a lot of them will be killed by FPV drones. These are short range, cheap drones, that can be used as suicide drones or to drop explosives.
The Ukraine-Russia war has shown that this is a new factor in warfare, and the US doesn’t seem to have adapted fast enough.
America’s rolling thunder of destroying things from the air is not convincing the Iranian regime to budge or the Iranian people to rise up.
The US allowing Iran to ship its oil while Iran stops most others, except those it gives permission, is a sign of weakness from the US. Trump isn’t willing to face the pain of much higher oil prices. If Trump isn’t willing to take such pain, then why would Iran agree to any significant demands?
The 2k or so marines sailing toward Iran from the Pacific, leaving two weeks after the war started for some reason, are not numerous enough to take and hold contested land, like Kharg Island, without heavy casualties. They may be able to make a beachhead in the province of Baluchestan where: the land is further away from the Strait of Hormuz, further away from Tehran, the US has better air supremacy, a landing would be surrounded by open lands where an Iranian attack could be easily seen, and the locals may be sympathetic because they are a different ethnic group and religion than the Persians and already have separatist rebels.
Former US Colonel Peter Mansoor says Trump thought Iran would surrender just from air attacks and didn’t have a plan for if they didn’t. He also said the war is unconstitutional, and that while a part of him is happy to see Iran get pain after killing hundreds of Americans in the Iraq war, most of him worries that Trump doesn’t have a plan and has opened a can of worms.
Trump initially said he was a militaristic guy but that he was against dumb wars like the war in Iraq. He later shifted to a more peace-focused rhetoric when he realized that was popular. But, he never had a strong belief in peace and always believed in the use of leverage and military force.