“At the end of the day, protectionism is rooted in fear and pessimism: fear that we’ll be outcompeted, and pessimism about the idea that a growing, dynamic economy can make us all better off. Libertarians are fond of making just such claims—so fond that Cass coined a term to mock us for it. Instead of tussling over the size of different constituencies’ relative shares of the fixed economic pie, the libertarian view is that our goal should be to grow the pie so everyone’s share is bigger. Cass calls this “economic piety,” and he rejects it. For him, the goal is not to grow the economy; it’s to direct the economy for the benefit of deserving constituencies such as blue-collar workers.
This is pure zero-sum thinking. It cements in place a mindset where one group’s gains necessarily come at some other group’s expense. To libertarians, technological innovation is a boon because it makes the whole economy more productive and everyone richer in the long run. But some people usually are hurt in the short run—think of the proverbial buggy-whip salesmen when automobiles come along. Protectionists are inclined to be suspicious of the tech sector and sympathetic toward policies that would tamp down economic dynamism in the name of protecting the would-be losers. The result, inevitably, is stagnation.”
“If you’re keeping track—and economists are making their best efforts—President Donald Trump’s trade war with the entire planet is running up quite a price tag. Even with a 90-day pause on some tariffs (except for China), the imposition or even just the threat of import taxes on goods from around the world and the inevitable retaliation by other countries is expected to take a bite out of the economy and people’s prosperity. Figuring out how much of a bite it will take is a trick, but there’s little doubt that it will be painful.”
The independence of the Fed is key to protecting the dollar, the economy, and price stability. People can trust in the dollar because the Fed will do what needs to be done to control inflation, even if it is painful.
Big things Trump’s economic team wants to do would require great international deals, but those deals are worthless if no one trusts the United States or its president. Trump is so erratic, that no one trusts him. He made the NAFTA 2.0 agreement with Mexico and Canada during his first term, then during his second called it junk and tried to break it. He threatens to take territory from allies and threatens to renege on NATO promises. Countries won’t make the sacrifices of a big Trump-pushed-for-deal when they can’t trust Trump to keep his promises.
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariffs policy to cause higher inflation and slower economic growth, complicating potential central bank efforts to ease the fallout.”
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“”Markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty and that means volatility,” Powell said on Wednesday. Still, he added, the volatility reflected the significance of the policy changes, rather than abnormal behavior in the markets.”
“the cost of site construction might rise further because of the 25 percent tariff Trump has imposed on steel, a major input in industrial construction”
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““The same concern applies to manufacturing equipment, which is all stainless steel,””
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“What actually encourages companies to move — as Trump alluded to when he called out Dublin — isn’t tariffs, said Ned Hux, a pharmaceutical and life sciences tax partner at PwC.
“Targeted tax incentives, streamlined regulatory approvals, and prioritized government procurement could make U.S.-based production more attractive and competitive,” he said, adding those measures could come in the form of tax deductions, lower tax rates on manufacturing activity, tax credits and low-interest financing for domestic production.”
China is the only main supplier of rare earths. Rare earths are key to military and industrial technologies. The Trump administration seems unprepared for China’s predictable move to ban rare earth minerals.
“The White House says it has the upper hand in its trade war with China. Its actions suggest otherwise.
Top administration officials spent the weekend trying to defend a carve-out of consumer electronics from the astronomical 145 percent tariffs it levied on China last week. The carve-out was neither an exemption nor a policy rollback, the White House argued, because those electronics are still subject to a separate 20 percent tariff on China and some electronic components could face sector-specific tariffs in the future.
But to some White House allies, the exceptions are indicative of the relatively weak position the administration is in as it wages a trade war with China, which has spent years making preparations for an escalation with the U.S. on trade. The carve-outs also reveal the conundrum facing the administration: The U.S. is imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods in an attempt to move manufacturing back to the U.S., but those tariffs are particularly painful for U.S. manufacturers because they are currently so dependent on Chinese parts.
So far, the U.S. has demonstrated that it is more willing to bend than China is in this burgeoning fight.
“Xi Jinping will not back down,” said one former Trump administration official, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to share their candid assessment of the U.S.-China relationship, adding that “the CCP will lose confidence in him” if he does, using the acronym for the ruling Chinese Communist Party.”