The Iranian regime has a very high pain threshold, much higher than the US. They are willing to take a lot of destruction without giving in. Assassinating Ali Khamenei was a huge mistake. He was evil in a lot of ways, but he did care about his people and appeared to actually be against nuclear weapons. The new leaders care less about the people and are willing to let Iranians suffer tremendously.
The US didn’t seem to have a plan for the Strait of Hormuz. There were plans on the shelf, but no real reworked plan with preparation.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz by force would require ground troops, but Trump is against that.
Trump indicated verbally multiple times that he has a low pain threshold with regards to the economy. Why would Iran give in when Trump has indicated that he can’t take the pain?
The US didn’t fix its munitions shortage before choosing to attack.
The reporting indicates that Trump was for this war and most of the rest of his administration was against it.
Hospitals are seeing more uninsured patients showing up, and more people are putting off surgeries due to lack of insurance. This is likely caused by Trump policies limiting ACA credits and making it harder to qualify for help.
To offset losses due to treating uninsured people for free, hospitals will raise prices.
Trump thinks a trade deficit means the US lost. This is false. Americans agreeing to buy goods from another country is a win for both sides.
Trade enlarges the pie, creating more total goods than we’d have without it. Consumers count too, and they benefit by buying foreign products, so do companies using foreign inputs to create goods and services in America.
The US needs to maintain its ability to produce military necessities, but the administration’s approach is to treat deficits generally as a lost. They broadly attack bilateral deficits without a sensible strategy–this hurts most people.
Lower prices aren’t necessarily “cheap”. They mean more. You can buy more; American businesses can produce more.
A lot of manufacturing jobs aren’t even good jobs anymore.
Within the conservative group in Iran’s leadership, there is a divide between neverending war until Israel is destroyed, as well as no talks with the US, and a side that believes in the theocracy but are more pragmatic and willing to make peace.
According to interviews with people who have been in the room with Trump as president, Trump isn’t playing 4D chess or putting on a front. Trump actually has nonsensical economic and foreign policy views. He thinks trade deficits are what determine whether he should be friendly or mean to a foreign country. He believes the US would be strong if not for the huge impact of political correctness holding us back. Trump has limited moral values in foreign policy and just wants to make what he views as good one-on-one deals. Trump seems to be a legitimate Iran hawk. Trump formed his views during his formative years based on what was happening at the time and based on his gut, and he just sticks to that, even if his gut intuitions are nonsense.
When it came to the war with Iran, Trump was convinced that the regime would fall. He was less convinced by Israel’s persuasion and more by Iran’s lack of response after the 12-day war and Israel’s success in that war.
The CIA told Trump that Iranian regime change was not likely, but Trump believed in his gut that it was.
Risks, like the Strait of Hormuz, were presented to Trump, but super softly. Trump was advised by a small group of scared yes men. Only Vance seriously tried to dissuade him.
“The Trump administration has acknowledged in court documents that it canceled $7.6 billion in grants for hundreds of clean energy projects “based solely on the political identity of the grant recipient’s state” — in this case, 16 states that voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.”
Trump policy has made the paperwork requirement of welfare much higher, leading to people who qualify to not get the benefits. It’s more difficult to be poor under Trump policies.