“At the end of the day, protectionism is rooted in fear and pessimism: fear that we’ll be outcompeted, and pessimism about the idea that a growing, dynamic economy can make us all better off. Libertarians are fond of making just such claims—so fond that Cass coined a term to mock us for it. Instead of tussling over the size of different constituencies’ relative shares of the fixed economic pie, the libertarian view is that our goal should be to grow the pie so everyone’s share is bigger. Cass calls this “economic piety,” and he rejects it. For him, the goal is not to grow the economy; it’s to direct the economy for the benefit of deserving constituencies such as blue-collar workers.
This is pure zero-sum thinking. It cements in place a mindset where one group’s gains necessarily come at some other group’s expense. To libertarians, technological innovation is a boon because it makes the whole economy more productive and everyone richer in the long run. But some people usually are hurt in the short run—think of the proverbial buggy-whip salesmen when automobiles come along. Protectionists are inclined to be suspicious of the tech sector and sympathetic toward policies that would tamp down economic dynamism in the name of protecting the would-be losers. The result, inevitably, is stagnation.”
“If you’re keeping track—and economists are making their best efforts—President Donald Trump’s trade war with the entire planet is running up quite a price tag. Even with a 90-day pause on some tariffs (except for China), the imposition or even just the threat of import taxes on goods from around the world and the inevitable retaliation by other countries is expected to take a bite out of the economy and people’s prosperity. Figuring out how much of a bite it will take is a trick, but there’s little doubt that it will be painful.”
“Earlier this month, the IRS and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) forged an agreement to share taxpayer data with federal immigration officials. According to a partially redacted memorandum of understanding, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) “will come to the IRS with the names and address[es] of taxpayers that they believe have violated federal immigration laws,” reported CNN.
The government has long encouraged undocumented immigrants who work in the United States to file their taxes. But the new agreement means that someone who pays his taxes in good faith could attract unwanted scrutiny and be at greater risk of deportation.
Between 50 percent and 75 percent of undocumented immigrants pay taxes via federal income and/or payroll taxes, the Congressional Budget Office found in 2007. Undocumented immigrants are required to pay taxes, and doing so can help in their immigration cases down the line. The IRS has long “sought to keep information submitted by undocumented immigrants confidential,” so the IRS-ICE agreement marks “a fundamental departure from decades of practice at the tax collector,” reported The New York Times.
If the agreement between ICE and the IRS discourages undocumented immigrants from paying their taxes, the U.S. could lose billions in tax revenue. In 2022, undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), a left-leaning economic think tank. Over one-third of those tax dollars “go toward payroll taxes dedicated to funding programs that these workers are barred from accessing,” including Social Security and Medicare, reported ITEP.
The Budget Lab, a nonpartisan policy research center at Yale University, estimates that the IRS-ICE agreement could cause federal revenues to “come in roughly $300 billion lower” over the next decade. In addition to becoming more hesitant to file their individual income taxes, undocumented immigrants might increasingly take under-the-table jobs.”
“The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s monthly survey of manufacturers, published earlier this week, reported sharp drops in what it calls “forward-looking indicators”—that is, what businesses expect the next six months to look like. The manufacturers in the survey expect to see fewer orders, longer delivery times, declining inventories, and lower levels of employment. About the only lines in the survey that are pointed upward are the expectations about prices.”
“The Trump administration plans to eliminate the IRS’ Direct File program, an electronic system for filing tax returns directly to the agency for free, according to two people familiar with the decision.
The program developed during Joe Biden’s presidency was credited by users with making tax filing easy, fast and economical. But Republican lawmakers and commercial tax preparation companies complained it was a waste of taxpayer money because free filing programs already exist, although they are hard to use.”
The independence of the Fed is key to protecting the dollar, the economy, and price stability. People can trust in the dollar because the Fed will do what needs to be done to control inflation, even if it is painful.
Big things Trump’s economic team wants to do would require great international deals, but those deals are worthless if no one trusts the United States or its president. Trump is so erratic, that no one trusts him. He made the NAFTA 2.0 agreement with Mexico and Canada during his first term, then during his second called it junk and tried to break it. He threatens to take territory from allies and threatens to renege on NATO promises. Countries won’t make the sacrifices of a big Trump-pushed-for-deal when they can’t trust Trump to keep his promises.
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariffs policy to cause higher inflation and slower economic growth, complicating potential central bank efforts to ease the fallout.”
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“”Markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty and that means volatility,” Powell said on Wednesday. Still, he added, the volatility reflected the significance of the policy changes, rather than abnormal behavior in the markets.”
“the cost of site construction might rise further because of the 25 percent tariff Trump has imposed on steel, a major input in industrial construction”
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““The same concern applies to manufacturing equipment, which is all stainless steel,””
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“What actually encourages companies to move — as Trump alluded to when he called out Dublin — isn’t tariffs, said Ned Hux, a pharmaceutical and life sciences tax partner at PwC.
“Targeted tax incentives, streamlined regulatory approvals, and prioritized government procurement could make U.S.-based production more attractive and competitive,” he said, adding those measures could come in the form of tax deductions, lower tax rates on manufacturing activity, tax credits and low-interest financing for domestic production.”