“All taxes are paid by someone, and President Donald Trump’s tariffs are no exception to that rule. The question of who pays and in what amounts is likely to become even more of a focal point in the coming days and weeks, as the White House follows through on its threat to hit imports from dozens of countries with higher tariffs starting on August 1.
Economic data from the past few months, during which the Trump administration hiked tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, China, and elsewhere, provide a preview of what’s to come after the August 1 tariffs hit: Higher prices for Americans.
That is, of course, what economists say tariffs do. Raising prices is really the only function of a tariff—which artificially inflates the price of imported goods to make them less attractive than domestic alternatives. Economists will also tell you that’s not the whole story. They say that domestic producers often raise prices as well, since imported competing goods are now more expensive. They also say that tariffs on raw materials and intermediate parts—like the Trump administration’s levies on steel, aluminum, and the parts necessary to build a car—will push up the cost of building other, more complex goods, and those higher costs will be passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices.
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There have been “relatively quick price responses to tariff announcements,” report a group of economists connected to the Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab, which tracks prices throughout the economy. In a paper updated earlier this month, the Harvard economists report that there’s been a “cumulative increase in imported goods prices since early March” of approximately 3 percent. The paper relies on data from four major U.S. retail chains.
Their data show that prices for both imported and domestic goods have climbed since Trump took office, with foreign-made goods increasing more quickly thanks to two noticeable leaps that occurred right after Trump’s tariff announcements in early March and early April.
Trump’s EU trade deal is only a win if a 15% tax on imports from Europe is a win. Things from Europe being more expensive, and importing companies making less money, are bad for the economy and the people in it.
Existing economic theories are based on scarcity, but a lot of scarcity of key needs are imposed by powerful actors and are not an inherent part of the world. There’s enough food for everyone. There’s enough healthcare resources and home-builders to provide for everyone. But, these goods are based on profits and profits are best maximized not by providing for everyone, but by tailoring services to those with money.
“The revenue undoubtedly came from a surge in imports to the U.S., which led to payments that filled federal coffers. It would seem to be a win for an administration that has staked an awful lot on waging a trade war with the entire planet to (take your pick) redress wrongs done to America, raise revenue for the government, and encourage domestic manufacturing and employment. But that victory lap comes too soon; the tariff windfall more likely represents efforts by U.S. firms to accumulate inventory before tariff rates rise even higher.”
The U.S., being the more innovative and intellectual property driven country, gets more value in trade from many countries even when we have a trade deficit. Trump trying to mess with such relationships is foolish. China really was/is a bad actor and needs to be dealt with strategically.
Trump’s tariffs have actually retarded U.S. manufacturing rather than bolstered it due to uncertainty and tariffs raising the cost of manufacturing inputs. From the Trump tariffs already put into effect, we haven’t seen huge price jumps as companies frontloaded their inputs to buy time and haven’t yet made pricing decisions.
Two percent of working Americans get tips. If you are a waiter who gets tips, you get a tax cut, but if you are a dishwasher who doesn’t get tips, you don’t get a tax cut. If you are getting tips and stay within the bill’s 25k limit, you aren’t paying much taxes to begin with.