Trump’s Fed Coup

“”Does ‘for cause’ require something more substantial than a mere allegation of wrongdoing, such as a formal charge, or a conviction, or even something else?” asks Reason’s Damon Root in a great piece on the precedent the Supreme Court might lean on (Namely Humphrey’s Executor v. United States (1935) and Seila Law v. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2020)). “Here’s another question to ask: Is the mortgage fraud allegation that’s been leveled against Cook merely a pretext designed to cover the fact that Trump is actually firing Cook for illegal political reasons?””

https://reason.com/2025/08/29/trumps-fed-coup/

China’s Shadow Moves: Ukraine, State Capitalism, and AI Ambitions | China Watch

Trump’s tariffs are likely to produce a record trade surplus for China as imports from China are frontloaded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze8fbNgsZ0s

Denver’s restaurants are dying

“Denver’s high minimum wage, especially its low tip credit, has unintentionally undermined the financial viability of full-service, labor-intensive restaurants. As costs outpace revenue and margins evaporate, once-thriving independent establishments are closing in droves, eroding the city’s cultural fabric and economic diversity.

Restaurant operators and advocacy groups agree that Covid sparked the decline, but rising costs since have continued to cripple the industry. Property taxes, utilities, insurance, food and drink prices, rent, and one of the highest minimum wages in the country — higher than in Los Angeles or New York — are straining already razor-thin margins.

The city’s low tip credit, which results in a high minimum wage for tipped workers, is a particular pain point.

Denver City Council unanimously passed a minimum wage increase in November 2019 — just four months before the pandemic hit — and it was fully implemented citywide by 2022. Today, the base minimum wage is $18.81 an hour and the tipped wage is $15.79 — increases of about 70 percent and 95 percent, respectively.

Per 2019 legislation, wage increases are uncapped and rise annually with the Consumer Price Index. In 2026, the base wage will be $19.29. For operators like Ms. Tronco and Mr. Seidel, who said that labor now consumes more than half his revenue, the math no longer works.

“When you force an operator to give raises every January 1 to the group of people who’s already making the most money, it chokes our ability to give a salaried person or an hourly cook a raise,”

To keep her business alive, Ms. Tronco has cut the hosts and bussers she hired when opening and reduced weeknight server shifts. She raises her menu prices every six months to keep up with costs. Her numbers have taken a hit: Sales are down an average of 10 percent this year.

“It just feels like whack-a-mole,” Ms. Tronco said. “Inflation has affected everyone … Now we’ve got a tariff situation and all my wine importers are telling me that everything is going to go up $3, $4 a bottle.”

Mr. Padró said the small tip credit is the industry’s biggest burden. He supports a higher base wage, even up to $25, because most of his employees already earn above that. He said that his servers and bartenders average $38 and $44, respectively. Expanding the tip credit would alleviate some of the burden faced by operators.

“I have 17-year-old kids pouring coffee for their teachers, making more than them,” he said.”

https://www.slowboring.com/p/denver-piece

How Did PERU Get the STRONGEST Currency in LATIN AMERICA? The Example MILEI Follows

A key part of keeping Peru’s currency stable are reforms that made their central bank independent from politicians. Trump is currently weakening this separation in the United States.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDayhEHc5OE

Why the U.S. is on the Precipice of a Recession — ft. Mark Zandi | Prof G Markets

Hiring is so low, it’s almost like we have a hiring freeze across the country.

The U.S. is on the edge of recession directly because of Trump policies–tariffs, immigration crackdown, DOGE cuts.

Hyperinflation around the world regularly happens after an executive takes control of a central bank and makes it cut interest rates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5F8o9z1-Nc

Trump’s attack on Fed triggers alarm in Europe over economic stability

“Independence has underpinned financial markets’ trust in central banks for half a century and has provided much of the basis for the U.S.-led international economic order.

Across the Atlantic, Cook’s counterparts at the European Central Bank are alarmed that Trump’s moves could not only set a dangerous precedent — but also have a tangible impact on their own policymaking, which is inexorably influenced by the course charted by the Fed.

“Attacking the independence of the Fed, the Trump administration inflicts a serious damage to the American economy,” said Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras in emailed comments to POLITICO. “The implications will come sooner rather than later.”

When independence is threatened, monetary policy “becomes dysfunctional, it starts doing things that it shouldn’t do,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told Fox News in an interview Sunday before Trump’s move to oust Cook, but after he had already signaled he wanted her out.

“The next step is disruption. It is instability, if not worse. So I think that this should not be debated,” Lagarde added.

Others expressed a similar wariness, with one Governing Council member, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the sensitive subject, fretting that a breach of the Fed’s independence could have “enormous repercussions on the financial world,” while also stressing the basic principle of due legal process that’s not been afforded to Cook.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-attack-federal-reserve-lisa-cook-alarm-europe-economic-stability/

‘Clearly a low moment’: US-India relationship sours as new tariffs kick in

“The new levies — imposed, in part, to pressure Russia to end its war on Ukraine by punishing one of its largest oil buyers — will raise the country’s tariff rate to 50 percent and are likely to inflame tensions between the world’s two largest democracies.

The Indians, meanwhile, have shown little sign of budging on their Russian oil purchases, which the government has framed as purely an economic decision.

Now, India’s 50 percent tariff rate will be nearly as high as the 55 percent levy Chinese goods face.

For much of this century, U.S. presidents have sought to pull New Delhi into closer strategic ties — and pry it away from its traditional relations with Moscow — through India’s membership in the China-countering group known as the Quad, which also includes Australia, Japan and the United States.

Those efforts appeared to be bearing fruit as recently as January following a meeting in Washington with top diplomats from Quad countries when India’s Foreign Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters that New Delhi was willing to nudge the grouping toward a greater defense and security focus. That initiative is likely dead as long as the Trump administration’s tariff punishment continues.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/26/clearly-a-low-moment-u-s-india-relationship-sours-as-new-tariffs-kick-in-00527196

Opinion | Why Trump’s Attack on the Fed Isn’t Spooking Wall Street

“The second Trump administration has been consumed by two central themes. The first theme is the unprecedented pace at which this administration has attacked the rule of law and the constitutional system on which it is built. The second theme is the unprecedented weakness of the response from major institutions to the Trump administration’s actions. Wall Street’s passivity amid Trump’s unprecedented attack on the Fed is only the latest example.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/08/26/trump-lisa-cook-federal-reserve-markets-opinion-00525449

You’re Being Lied To About Private Equity | Truth Complex

Private equity often buy businesses, make decisions that quickly make the private equity a lot of money, then leave the businesses worse off. This isn’t how capitalism is supposed to work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pzLhWCxH_g

How Cook’s dismissal would upend the Fed

“Senate Republicans have already said they plan to move quickly to confirm Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran to fill one current vacancy. If Cook loses a pending legal challenge and is dismissed — and her replacement is confirmed by the GOP-controlled Senate —Trump-appointed Fed governors would hold four of the seven seats on the central bank’s board.

That majority, in turn, would be enough to control the reappointment of the 12 regional bank presidents throughout the country who also have a say on rates and whose five-year terms are scheduled to expire in February.
And that, in effect, could give Trump control of the Fed’s policy-making Federal Open Market Committee, whose refusal to lower interest rates throughout his second term has put the president on the warpath with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Any exertion of White House control over the reappointment process for regional bank presidents would represent an extraordinary break in precedent.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/27/how-cooks-dismissal-would-upend-the-fed-00527582