The West is losing its ability to win wars because: ,among other causes, they believe in fantasies that there will be a technical solution to winning tough wars that don’t involve great loss of life; they no longer have a demographic edge; and they don’t believe in the correctness and goodness of their overarching goals.
“due to structural changes in our politics, which are largely due to a realignment in our politics based on education levels, even if the Democrats were to have a really great election cycle in the midterms, there’s going to be a limit to how many seats they can win back due to these structural changes.
If you look at Trump’s job approval on issues, he’s underwater on everything, particularly way, way lower now on the economic ratings, on inflation, and even immigration now is underwater. So you would think that his total job approval, currently around 44 percent, would be lower.
The bottom line is based on historical standards, Trump and the Republicans should be headed to a really bad midterm election. But because of these changes in our politics, due to realignment based on education, they’ll be more insulated than they would have been in the past from a tsunami-type of midterm.”
“Portuguese culture grants special privileges to children and families, and those privileges really do make a big difference. We’ve been to Lisbon, surf towns to the west, the Azores, and even Cabo Verde, the African island nation and former colony, where many of the same norms apply. Pregnant women, the elderly, and people traveling with young kids get special lines for airport security and customs, ushered through as fast as possible. Native Portuguese will get offended if they see you in the normal line, instructing you to go to the priority line and sometimes getting the attention of the customs officer to make sure the system is adhered to—the only time Southern Europeans have ever been rule-abiding!
Though their Northern European neighbors are strict about taxi cab car seat rules and paranoid about child safety on buses (in Norway they made me use a car seat), the Portuguese are relaxed about it, allowing parents to make whatever choices they deem best. This is helpful for those of us who don’t travel with car seats, preferring to use public transit wherever possible.
Their playgrounds allow lots of risky play. We availed ourselves of Lisbon’s Jardim da Estrela, which had plenty of climbing structures, including one extending more than 15 feet in the air, full of kids as young as 5 jousting for the top spot.
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In Lisbon, the public park facilities even had a miniature bathroom for potty-training kids, but you could also freely change a diaper on a park bench. The nearby day cares dressed kids for rain or shine, and they seemed to make outdoor time a habit. The moms did not hover—a refreshing contrast to Manhattan and Brooklyn—and there was a healthy mix of moms and dads handling the kids.
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At home in New York, I keep a list of fancy restaurants that tend to be welcoming toward babies and toddlers (Bonnie’s in Williamsburg, Cafe Gitane in Lower Manhattan), precisely because it feels like a rarity: Several restaurants have adopted policies disallowing children (Jean-Georges, Bungalow). In Portugal, it’s standard to see families out to dinner, and out quite late. Though the families don’t tend to be huge—Portugal has not been immune to the sinking-birthrate issues that have plagued the rest of the developed world—they are rebounding a bit from a 2013 low of 1.21 births per woman.
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But the Portuguese in particular grasp something I fear American parents miss: You don’t have to recede from society once you have children, relegated only to explicitly kid-friendly spaces. The way to get children to learn how to fly and dine in restaurants and act civilized in public is to include them, and to let them practice again and again. Of course, those reps are easier gotten when you have a surrounding culture that acts like children are a gift, not a burden. The grace with which Portuguese culture treats families makes it easier to bear when your kid inevitably messes up in public; everyone who witnesses the tantrum or the spilled glass seems to realize that this is a normal part of living alongside kids—a little cost worth bearing to have a society that’s warm and friendly and growing.”
Don’t spoil your daughters so that you can benefit society’s fertility rates.
Women tend to marry and have children based on their father’s, or the fathers’ around them when they grew up, income and wealth. So if daughters are spoiled, they are less likely to have children because less men will seem good enough to them.
Giving people cash to have babies works, just not very efficiently. It’s expensive. In the U.S., we’d get one baby per $200,000 to $400,000. Lifetime taxes paid by the average person is $150,000 to $400,000. So fiscally, the government may break even. Childless people are dependents on society so should pay higher taxes. Their future retirement depends on the labor of younger people, and younger people depend on the labor and money of parents.