Normally, if a group was taking territory to help them limit traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait while also successfully striking an important Saudi pipeline, the US would intervene militarily to keep the oil flowing. That the US so far has chosen not to directly intervene, shows what hectic times we are in with the, so far, failed war in Iran.
Trump is hoping that an agreement with the Houthis where only Saudi tankers are affected will hold.
Saudi Arabia is under attack, where are its treaty allies Turkey and Pakistan?
The war against Iran has made the supply of oil low, and if something else happens like a natural disaster to decrease it further…things will be much worse.
Blockading Iran is hurting them economically. This could get them to the negotiating table, but it could take time and is quite costly for the US to maintain, both militarily, and the economic consequences of Iran mostly closing the Strait.
If Trump did not parade around the world like an asshole, threatening and attacking allies, there could have been a chance of a blockading coalition to help convince Iran the world will not tolerate them terrorizing the Strait of Hormuz. Oh well.
China has done a better job at building resilience to bad stuff happening in the world compared to the United States. Both US market actors and politicians have been too focused on short-term incentives rather than building resilience that helps in the long-run.
The Iranian regime has a very high pain threshold, much higher than the US. They are willing to take a lot of destruction without giving in. Assassinating Ali Khamenei was a huge mistake. He was evil in a lot of ways, but he did care about his people and appeared to actually be against nuclear weapons. The new leaders care less about the people and are willing to let Iranians suffer tremendously.
The US didn’t seem to have a plan for the Strait of Hormuz. There were plans on the shelf, but no real reworked plan with preparation.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz by force would require ground troops, but Trump is against that.
Trump indicated verbally multiple times that he has a low pain threshold with regards to the economy. Why would Iran give in when Trump has indicated that he can’t take the pain?
The US didn’t fix its munitions shortage before choosing to attack.
The reporting indicates that Trump was for this war and most of the rest of his administration was against it.
“Prices rose 3.8% in April compared to a year earlier, marking an increase from a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.3% in the prior month. Annual inflation jumped to its highest level in three years, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showed.
As recently as February, inflation stood at 2.4%, clocking in just a tick above the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2%.
The jump in prices last month owed in large part to a sharp rise in costs for products impacted by a global oil shock. Gasoline prices were 5% higher in April than March, the BLS report said. Airline fares climbed 2.8% from the previous month.”
All realistic deals on the table that Iran might agree to look an awful lot like the deal Obama got without the costs and risks of war. Trump is reluctant to agree to such a deal because it will essentially be an admission that Obama and Kerry were right all along–this was the best deal possible and better than no deal or war.
Reporting was that Trump could have gotten such a deal before the war began, but Trump rejected it because he thought he was a great deal-maker who could do better than Obama. He was wrong, and we got war because of it.
Germany is starting to massively increase its military power. Europe needs German power. Once Germany has this power, some Germans will want to use it in ways that are not in America’s interest. We need Germany to pull its own weight, but we need to keep that weight on our side, and to do this, requires keeping America’s commitment to Europe strong and clear. German power is much less dangerous when embedded in a NATO structure that includes the United States.
Throughout history, even before it became a global superpower, the United States fought to defend the freedom of the seas. If Iran forces the US to accept an extortionary toll on the Strait of Hormuz, it will be a great blow to the US-led order that allows trade across international waters without heavy fees enforced by deadly power.
Control of the Strait gives Iran control over the price of oil. If they want the price higher, they let fewer ships through.