Month: July 2024

Why the US had a violent crime spike during Covid — and other countries didn’t

Posted on by ajk1311@gmail.com

“A few years out from the start of the pandemic, it does appear that the rise in homicides in the United States was unique. According to multiple studies and a systematic review of crime data for 2020, in most countries crime fell following Covid-19 lockdowns, then gradually returned to their pre-pandemic levels once the lockdown measures lifted. Homicide was the exception to the rule — but not the way it was in the United States.
Homicides around the world, according to the 46 studies the authors reviewed, didn’t change significantly due to the pandemic. “Most studies reported no relationship between Covid-19 and homicides,” the authors of the study wrote. A majority of the studies, they noted, found no relationship between the implementation or easing of lockdown measures and killings.

The Small Arms Survey, which gathers and analyzes data about firearms ownership and violence across the world, also found that the global rate of violent deaths decreased worldwide in 2020.

What was different in the United States?

“There was no other country that experienced this kind of sudden increase in gun violence,” says Patrick Sharkey, a sociologist at Princeton University who studies the intersections of urban segregation, economic inequality, and violence. It was gun violence, specifically, that sent violent crime soaring. Americans bought guns in record numbers during the pandemic, and according to an analysis by Rob Arthur and Asher for Vox, there’s evidence that more people were carrying guns in 2020 — even before crime soared that summer. “Guns don’t necessarily create violence on their own, but they make violence more lethal,” Sharkey says.

While experts caution that it’s difficult to definitively prove what caused the rise in violent crime, there are a few other factors that likely contributed to it.

One was the killing of George Floyd by police and the unrest surrounding it, accompanied by a withdrawal in policing that followed. Previous research has shown that high-profile incidents of police violence correspond with a pullback by police and a rise in crime — specifically, robberies and murders. Data following the unrest after Floyd’s killing in Minneapolis and elsewhere shows a marked decline in policing and arrests that summer.”

https://www.vox.com/politics/358831/us-violent-crime-murder-pandemic

It was not undemocratic for the Democrats to dump Joe Biden

Posted on by ajk1311@gmail.com

“the party isn’t avoiding an election, they’re trying to win one, by picking a nominee who (they hope) can win more people’s votes”

…

“yes, 15 million people did indeed end up voting in those primaries. But how democratic was that process? Biden won the primaries because he won the inside game. It was party elites who determined the (few) options available to voters. Polls showed the voters would in theory have preferred someone else, but they weren’t offered a realistic opposing candidate.
Furthermore, asserting that the primary result is all that matters, and that taking anything else into account is “undemocratic,” is a very limited and blinkered definition of democracy. After all, those 15 million people are a paltry sum compared to the 150 million people who may vote in the general election — people who, according to polls, overwhelmingly think Biden is too old to serve another term. Many of those people wanted another candidate — shouldn’t their views matter?”

…

”

Another issue is that primary voters did not have the information that Biden would perform so poorly in the debate when they cast their votes.”

…

“party elites didn’t push Biden off the ticket in an effort to steal the power of the presidency from him. They abandoned him because they fear he is hurting the party’s electoral chances — that is, because he’s lost support from voters.”

…

“maybe it would have been nice if Democrats had had an actual presidential primary process rather than this mess. But that didn’t happen — and, considering the options, party officials abandoning Biden to try and nudge him aside in favor of someone who can win was a reasonable response.”

https://www.vox.com/politics/362062/biden-drop-out-republicans-accuse-democrats-coup

Trump Said Tariffs Would Reduce the Trade Deficit. Instead, It Grew.

Posted on by ajk1311@gmail.com

“During former President Donald Trump’s term in office, he promised that higher tariffs on American imports would reduce the country’s large trade deficit.
At the time, many economists disputed that notion. Tariffs might marginally reduce the import side of the trade ledger, but they also reduce economic output (and therefore exports), so the net effect on the trade deficit was likely to be minuscule, they warned.

No matter. In 2017, the White House’s official Trade Policy Agenda highlighted how America’s manufacturing trade deficit had grown from $317 billion in 2000 to $648 billion in 2016. That was evidence, the document claimed, that greater levels of trade had triggered “a period of slowed GDP growth, weak employment growth, and sharp net loss of manufacturing employment in the United States.”

You know what happened next. Tariffs were raised. Then more tariffs were added. President Joe Biden took over and left Trump’s higher tariffs in place. American businesses and consumers paid the cost of those higher taxes. The average tariff rate on imports to the United States has climbed from 1.5 percent to over 3 percent, and annual tariff revenue has nearly tripled.

So what happened to the trade deficit? It didn’t fall.

In 2017, the last full year before Trump’s tariffs were imposed, America’s overall trade deficit was $517 billion. By 2023, it had grown to $785 billion, according to new Census Bureau data.

The story is the same when you look at the manufacturing trade deficit, the narrower category that the Trump administration had highlighted in that 2017 report. It climbed to over $1 trillion by 2021, nearly 60 percent higher than the 2016 figure that was cited by the White House as evidence that free trade was a failure.

Rather than reducing the manufacturing trade deficit, the higher tariffs likely led to its sharp increase, writes Ed Gresser, a former assistant U.S. Trade Representative. “Manufacturers import goods so as to turn them into other goods, and are big tariff payers,” writes Gresser in a post for the Progressive Policy Institute, where he now works as vice president for trade policy. “So the tariffs raised the costs of industries like automobiles, machinery, and toolmaking; they faced a bit more challenges competing against imports and succeeding as exporters; and the overall goods/services deficit grew more concentrated in manufacturing.””

https://reason.com/2024/06/19/trump-said-tariffs-would-reduce-the-trade-deficit-instead-it-grew/

Trump Advisor Admits Trade War Against China Failed

Posted on by ajk1311@gmail.com

“”I don’t think we’re going to see a deal like we saw in the first term,” Robert O’Brien, Trump’s fourth and final national security advisor, told Chalfant. “I think people were generally happy with [the previous deal], but as it turned out, the Chinese didn’t honor it.””

https://reason.com/2024/06/19/trump-advisor-admits-trade-war-against-china-failed/

Israeli settlers beat foreign volunteers in occupied West Bank

Posted on by ajk1311@gmail.com

“Israeli settlers on Sunday attacked a group of foreign volunteers helping Palestinian farmers in the occupied West Bank, injuring some who needed hospital treatment, the activists and Israeli army said.
Eight mainly American volunteers were working with the farmers in an olive grove near the Palestinian village of Qusra when settlers came after them, said David Hummel, an American-German in the group.

“We were standing there peacefully, not a threat to anyone, when they started coming towards us and pushing us down the path,” Hummel told AFP.

“They started attacking and beating us all with sticks and metal pipes and they were throwing rocks as well at us,” he said.

“I was attacked on my legs, on my arms and here on my jaw as well and it was … very violent,” added the volunteer, showing bruising to his face.

Attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank have increased since the Gaza war erupted on October 7. Tensions have been further fuelled by an International Court of Justice ruling on Friday that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories since 1967 was illegal.

The volunteers are from the International Solidarity Movement, a group that says it deploys people to form a “protective presence” for Palestinians at risk of facing violence in the West Bank.

Two women were among four activists treated at Rafidia hospital in the nearby city of Nablus, according to Qusra’s mayor Hani Odeh. An AFP journalist saw at least three being treated in the hospital.

Israeli troops arrived and fired warning shots in the air to chase away the volunteers and farmers, according to the mayor.

The army said in a statement that “a number of masked Israeli civilians assaulted a group of foreign citizens while they were planting trees in the area of Qusra” and that “several” needed treatment.

“Soldiers were dispatched to the scene and fired warning shots into the air, causing the Israeli civilians to flee the area,” they added, condemning any “acts of violence”.

The volunteers from the ISM, which says it was set up “to resist the Israeli occupation of Palestinian land”, have been in Qusra for about a month, according to the mayor.

The farmers wanted to “clear the land after settlers burned it some time ago”, said Odeh.

About 10 people from the nearby Esh Kodesh Israeli settlement arrived to confront the farmers and foreign activists, he added.

Hummel said the group of settlers who attacked them included six women.

Several ISM volunteers have been injured in the West Bank and Gaza since it started work. Some have also been arrested.

Since October 7, at least 579 Palestinians have been killed in violence with settlers or Israeli troops, according to the Palestinian authorities.

At least 16 Israelis, including soldiers, have been killed in attacks involving Palestinians, according to official Israeli figures.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-settlers-beat-foreign-volunteers-155821974.html