“the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t actually reopened yet — and there are serious doubts about what “reopening” means exactly (not to mention how long it might last).
…
Assuming the Strait of Hormuz does fully reopen sometime soon — a big assumption given all the diplomatic challenges ahead — experts say prices at the pump still won’t plunge to their prewar level.
“There’s an old expression: Gas prices go up like a rocket and come down like a feather,” one independent oil analyst told CNN.
In the case of Iran, five factors will continue to pad the price of gas even after the end of the war.
First, oil production has largely ground to a halt across the Persian Gulf over the past six weeks — partly because the region’s oil infrastructure suffered damage and partly because countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and Saudi Arabia (the world’s largest oil exporter) ran out of storage space. An estimated 7.5 million barrels of production per day were shut down in March, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Global supply will continue to suffer while these countries play catch up — a process that could take years, experts say.
Second, exporting oil from the Gulf will get more expensive if Iran charges a toll, and that added cost — an estimated $1 per barrel, according to CNN — is likely to be passed on to consumers.
Third, insurance for ships that cross the Strait of Hormuz will likely cost more as well — another expense that could make gas and other petroleum products pricier for Americans.
Fourth, “traders will want some premium to compensate for [the] risk” that the “ceasefire breaks,” according to Zandi. That’s why oil futures are still above prewar levels through the end of 2026.
Finally, retail gas station owners set their prices based on the wholesale price of gas. When oil gets more expensive, that price goes up — but gas stations tend to accept a smaller profit margin on each gallon they sell in order to stay competitive. Then, when the cost of oil starts to fall, they typically try to even things out by hanging onto higher gas prices for as long as possible.”
“NEW YORK (AP) — President Donald Trump’s administration this week acknowledged it made a significant error in figures it used to help justify a fraud probe into New York’s Medicaid program, a glaring mistake that undercuts a federal campaign to tackle waste, mostly in Democratic-led states.
The error, which the administration admitted first to The Associated Press, prompted health analysts to question how many of the Republican administration’s sweeping anti-fraud efforts around the country were based on faulty findings. One of a few mischaracterizations it made about New York’s Medicaid program, it also reflected a common criticism that’s been made of Trump’s second administration — that it tends to attack first and confirm the facts later.
“These numbers could have been cleared up in a phone call, so it’s really slapdash,” said Fiscal Policy Institute senior health policy adviser Michael Kinnucan, whose recent analysis called attention to the Trump administration’s inaccurate claim.”
For Iran to win, all they have to do is survive and maintain an ability to commit terror attacks. Thus far, the US has failed to end Iran’s ability to hit Israel, hit gulf states, hit US bases, and stop shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Vice President of the United States is actively campaigning for the authoritarian-leaning president of Hungary. Rather than spreading democracy, the US is actively trying to spread authoritarianism.
Orban has given himself the ability to rule by decree, restricted the media, manipulated the electoral and district system, taken over and abused with police NGOs and universities, redistributed wealth to loyalists rather than based on sound policy, and supported Russia invading its neighbor. He has bent a former democracy toward authoritarianism. The European Parliament has declared that Hungary is no longer a full democracy in a 433 to 123 vote.
The death of the West will be the end of Western values like free speech, free association, free press, and free and fair elections. Vice President Vance supports Orban’s authoritarian actions in Hungary just like he supports Trump’s, often illegal, authoritarian actions at home.